Examining Phins 2022 Run Game Analytics

Phins 2022 run game is the foundation of the offense

Even with the super-duper receivers Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, new Miami Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel will set the foundation of his offense firmly on the run game. The rushing attack is the core of the Shanahan philosophy, which McDaniel’s coaching career as grown through, so it will be the core in Miami as well. This means that fans should be laser-focused on all the run game elements as the key to all the Phins expectations in the 2022 Season. If Miami can run the football effectively, then the sky isn’t the limit… it’s the starting line.

Phins rushing analytics heading into 2022

So, according to the analytics, it’ very clear who and what will determine if we run or not.

There’s no doubt that McDaniel and his staff will scheme and play call up help to a beleaguered 2021 Phins rushing attack. And unlike last season, the collection of speedsters Hill, Waddle, and Wilson this year will force defenses to spread thin and play on their heels far more, which will give some extra space for the run game. But, in the end, it will all boil down to blockers blocking and runner grinding out yards.

Here’s the analytics of the Dolphins 2021 offensive line:

  1. Personnel Groupings: 12 Personnel (big, 2 TEs) 61% (NFL Avg. 21%), 11 Personnel (3 Wides) 28% (NFL Avg. 61%)
  2. Yards Before Contact: (2020) YBC 2.5, (2021) YBC 2.0

Clearly, the loss of OC Chan Gailey, OL coach Steve Marshall, C Ted Karras, and G Erik Flowers were a big hit on the run game! We went from running our big group of 12 personnel 28% in 2020 to 61% in 2021 and lost half a yard despite doubling our power formation usage.

This should give Phins fans hope that there will be a big boost in the run blocking in 2022.

Terron Armstead and Connor Williams are sizeable upgrades in talent over Flowers and Karras. McDaniel, OC Frank Smith, and OL coach Matt Applebaum should be in the ballpark of Gailey and Marshall, at the very least. So, 2.5 yards before contact in 2022 is the floor for what we should expect...

… Maybe even more!

Miami running backs group analytics:

  1. Myles Gaskin: (2021) YBC 2.1 / *YAC 1.4 (2020) YBC 2.1 / *YAC 2.0
  2. Chase Edmond: (2021) YBC 3.6 / *YAC 1.5 (2020) YBC 2.7 / *YAC 1.9
  3. Raheem Mostert: (2021) injured (2020) YBC 3.3 / *YAC 1.7
  4. Sony Michel: (2021) YBC 2.1 / *YAC 1.9 (2020) YBC 2.1 / *YAC 3.6 (only 79 carries)
  5. Savon Ahmed: (2021) YBC 1.4 / *YAC 1.4 (only 79 carries) (2020) YBC 3.3 / *YAC 1.0

*YAC means Yards After Contact

Clearly, by the statistics above, the offensive line determines the majority of the rushing out put for these backs. Yes, in 2021 Ahmed equaled the paltry O-line output, and in 2020 Gaskin almost equal the O-line output by a hair, and Michel surpassed it with limited attempts. But, the sure bet with the best pay per head is that the blockers will make or break this 2022 rushing attack and these runners will finish what they started.

It’s not to say this running back unit isn’t a quality group. As a collection this group of backs offer depth, versatility, and quality production… if the O-line sets the table for them. Even though pass protection is absolutely critical, the pass game and this offense is built on the run game, so ‘run we must’ in 2020 to be successful. If we are averaging at least 2.5 yards before contact behind the blockers this season fans should finally see the Dolphins finally turn hope into reality! Go Phins!!!

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