Week 18: Is Miami Knocked Down or OUT!?

Phins are in the postseason no matter what! But 2023 was about more than a quick show.

The Baltimore Ravens beat up the Miami Dolphins 56-19 and insult was added to injury with the loss of Xavien Howard and Brandon Chubb. The ugly score and loss is one thing because even teams that have won Super Bowls get a blowout loss. Remember when we handed it to the Patriots on their way to a Super Bowl victory in 2006? But, the injuries add extra hurdles going forward, so they were the hardest to swallow from the defeat. Still, all the Phins need to do is win this week and they get the #2 seed in the conference and could be on course for a Ravens rematch…

… First, though they’ll need to beat the Buffalo Bills in Prime Time this week and it won’t be easy!

Week 18 determines the 2023 Season… and more!

The Raven ran the ball inside and outside on the Phins and it added fuel the Lamar Jackson’s pass game. Miami on the other hand couldn’t run the ball inside or consistently enough outside against Baltimore’s light boxes and nickel defense to run them out of it. Tua and the passing game only saw 3 blitzes and 7 defenders in coverage all game. While it wasn’t the only factor that drove the beat down, it was a big one because the Dolphins were designed to be a potent offensive team with big strike capability to support the newly installed defense. On Sunday, this wasn’t the case.

What made matters worse is the Phins offense went against a gutted Ravens’ defense missing their two starting corners and starting nickleback/safety, while the defense faced a unit only missing their starting right guard and limited snaps from their starting left tackle. Yes, Miami was missing Waddle and Connor and Hunt, but the injury ledger was far higher for Baltimore.

Devon Achane did have some big runs and on the stat sheet, it looked great rushing for 25 carries for 152 yards at 6.2 YPC. But, you can bet with the best football software that the inability to run inside on an opposing unit stacked with passing personnel is serious rot under the shiny numbers.

Ravens & Bills are very similar

The Bills are very similar to the Ravens in many ways. The Ravens have the 13th-best run defense and the Bills 15th. Baltimore has the 6th best pass defense and Buffalo the 7th. Both teams play light boxes and nickel all day. On offense, both have mobile, big-armed quarterbacks with excellent run games to back them. The Ravens have the #1 rushing attack and the Bills are the #7 with both able to rush inside and outside effectively.

This is where the loss of Brandon Chubb hurts and Xavien Howard makes the Ravens’ loss hurt more than Week 17. Miami was once stuffed with talent on the edges of the defense, now they are thin. Vic Fangio will be forced now to thicken his front with more bodies and call run blitzes to contain the rushing attack. This will create one-on-ones more for the Bills and we saw against the Ravens Miami struggles at that.

This is why Miami must run the ball and run inside to keep Buffalo’s defense off balance because this won’t be a low-scoring affair. Miami’s offense must lead the way in the air and on the ground to put pressure on the Bills–not the other way around.

Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins offense must shine this week against a Bills team that is very talented but very inconsistent. Josh Allen and the Bills have had our number for quite some time, but the time is now to flip that script or it could get very ugly for the Dolphins this year… and going forward! Go Phins!!!