Projecting The Production Of Jay Ajayi

Jay Ajayi has shown flashes of being an excellent running back.

At this point, Miami’s run game will run with the production of Jay Ajayi.

The Miami Dolphins had a very active off-season at the running back position, and after all that action, the Miami Dolphins current projected starter is Jay Ajayi.

To start the off-season, the Dolphins tried to keep free agent Lamar Miller. They offered him a significant raise, but Miller chose to gallop to the Texans for even more money.

As a result of losing Miller, they tried to sign C.J. Anderson, which appeared to be a lock considering the Broncos were strapped by the salary cap. However, an 11^th hour offer from the Broncos stole Anderson from Miami’s grasp.

Then they pursued James Starks and Chris Johnson. Again, they lost out on both players who decided to re-sign with their former teams.

Miami then brought Arian Foster in for a visit. Foster was still recovering from an Achilles injury that he ironically suffered last year against Miami, so Miami did not make him an offer. Currently, Foster is still available, but many of the best sportsbooks in the world believe that Miami’s interest has cooled down.

Then Miami signed a couple of uninspiring running backs in Daniel Thomas and Isaiah Pead.

The final move at running back came with Miami using their 3rd round pick on Kenyan Drake: a talented player with a thus far injury riddled career. While he appears to be more of a change of pace running back than a three-down back, he will be given every opportunity to prove this evaluation wrong.

Jay Ajayi could prove to one of Miami’s better value picks.

So, after all is said and done, Miami is left with Ajayi as the back which the Dolphins will hang their running game on. The question is, what will his production end up looking like?

Right off the bat, the one disconcerting thing is if the coaching staff was as in love with Ajayi as they are saying, why all the activity in searching for a starter? Is it durability? Is it talent? Or simply a desire for a deep backfield?

Now let me state this: I believe Ajayi can provide very good production – especially in Miami’s one cut Zone-Stretch scheme. But, “can” is the operative word, and the uncertainty in “can” isn’t about his ability to tote the rock.

After playing sparingly last year, Ajayi is very limited in NFL experience because of a preseason injury to start his rookie campaign. But, as the RB position is one of the easiest to translate as far as skill, the lack of experience is more about him and the staff figuring out if he has the durability and stamina to survive an NFL season. However, to balance that negative out, Ajayi handled an enormous amount of touches his senior year with (397). So, he has proven he can handle a heavy workload…albeit, on the college level.

The context with which to frame Coach Gase’s vision of a starting back, and by that Ajayi’s expected role this season, is by looking at the 2015 Bears. As the offensive coordinator, Gases’ offense threw the ball 523 times and ran the ball 469 times for a total of 992 offensive plays, which equates to runs being called 47% of the time. In Miami last year, the Phins threw the ball 588 times and ran the ball 344 times for a total of 932 total offensive plays, which equates to runs being called 37% of the time. Miami’s offensive play distribution this year will likely be more comparable to what Chicago did last year.

So, lets use the round approximate number of 450 running plays as what Miami will execute this upcoming season (Bears ran 468 in 2015). By using Matt Forte, the Bears starting RB, and his 13  games, you can roughly extrapolate Miami’s starting RB would be expected to carry the ball roughly 268 times (just over 16 carries a game), which is 57% of the executed running plays. So, 16 carries a game times 16 games comes to 256 multiplied by Ajayi’s current yards per carry average of 3.8, you get 972 yards on the season.

Now, factor in that Ajayi was in his first season, and that Miami’s offensive line should be improved from last year, one would assume that at the very least he can get his average up a few points up to 4.0. If this ends up the case Ajayi would be good for a minimum of 1,024 yards – if he stays healthy and has the stamina to not hit a wall somewhere during the season.

The moral of the story is that as long as Ajayi stays healthy and fresh, I believe he can crack the 1,000 yard mark. In terms of touchdowns, 8 should be a nice goal, which would mean he scores a touchdown in every other game. Gase loves to use his running backs in the passing game, Forte had 44 receptions last year for 389 yards and 3 touchdowns in Gase’s offense last season. Despite concerns about Ajayi hands, he was lethal in college at catching passes out of the backfield, so Forte’s 2015 numbers are a good goal for Ajayi to aspire to in 2016. If Jay Ajayi can hold serve on these numbers, Miami will have quite a nice season to look forward too, and quite a nice back going forward. Go Fins!!!