Déjà Vu would be nice if it includes a Dolphins win over the Patriots.
Even the point spread of 10 pts in Pats favor is suffering from déjà vu.
There’s a sense of déjà vu surrounding tomorrow’s Miami Dolphins / New England Patriots game.
The Dolphins are again hosting the Patriots at home on the last weekend of the regular season, and again the Patriots need to beat Miami in order to lock up the number one seed in the AFC.
It’s the exact same scenario as last year for the Patriots.
The same can’t be said for the Dolphins this time around.
Last year, the Dolphins played spoilers to the Patriots ‘easy win’. The Patriots were forced to have to go to Denver for the AFC Championship Game, which proved to be too much for them to handle. So, with that being said, most of the best pay per head bookie service fans will bet that the Patriots are not going to overlook the Dolphins this time around.
This year, Miami will be playing for a little bit more than pride, because if they can find a way to win this game, combined with a Kansas City Chief loss, then they will lock up the 5th seed in the AFC, and secure themselves a date with the ailing Texans.
But, if Miami wants to win this game against the Patriots, then they are going to have to get Jay Ajayi going in the running game, and stopping LaGarrett Blount from running his way through the Dolphins shaky run defense.
This though is a lot easier said than done.
Only a Dolphins win would make this complete Déjà Vu
Patriots rank # 8 in rushing with 116.8 yards per game while ranking #3 in run defense giving up only 89.5.
This is a new Patriots defensive style that is now susceptible through the air ranking #14 with 240 yards per game, while being stout on the ground.
This isn’t to say that Ajayi won’t be crucial, he will. But, this is likely where the number of carries, aiding in the Play Action passing game, clock control and critical short yards will be his main contribution. Of course, Ajayi is a special back and could break a few, but as far as percentages go, it’s the back-end of the defense that is more likely to be exposed.
On Defense, the Dolphins have to obviously limit Tom Brady. However, putting the brakes on Brady will be far ‘easier’ if the offense is made one dimensional by stopping their running attack.
If Miami can contain Blount and the rest of the Patriots running game, then this will force Brady to drop back and pass. Sure Brady can kill us through the air, however, Miami knows that Brady and the Patriots are going to throw, then they can be aggressive with the pass rush and really come after Brady. As great as Brady is, he still gets frustrated and gets thrown off his game when he is under constant duress.
Pressure, run defense supported by good drives on offense for 60 minutes is key.
The Patriots run attack kills with a thousand cuts. Averaging only 3.9 per carry it ranks 25th, but is 8th with 116 yards per carry and 3rd in carries with 30.2. This is the type of attack that leaves defenses exhausted by the mid 3rd quarter if they aren’t supported by their offense.
This has been the M.O. for Dolphins disasters this season: slow offensive starts that leave the “D” spent by the half.
So, if Miami wants a full déjà vu experience they need to find a way to control the run, generate a pass rush when they get the Pats off schedule and offensively have drives to give the defense a blow so they are gassed by the 3rd.
Easy right? Easier said than done…but, given Miami has taken the last 3 of 4 in Miami, I won’t be surprised if it’s déjà vu all over again. Go Fins!!!
