The situation between the Phins & Pats has been flipped for decades
Many Dolphins fans are understandably nervous over the Dolphins / Patriots game this Sunday. Miami must pick up at least two wins over the next three games to have a realistic shot at the playoffs… and it won’t be easy. The first team standing in the way is their old bully of two decades headed by Brian Flores’s mentor Bill Belichick. Miami has been a successful spoiler and stuck the knife into New England many times. But, this time, the roles are reversed and the pressure is on the Phins to win. The Patriots won in Foxborough Week 1, now the Dolphins can return serve, get the clam-chowder eating monkey off their backs, and show that they really turned the corner by beating a less talented team at home.
Let’s take the name Dolphins, Patriots, Belichick, and Cam out of the equation and look at the situation without bias.
Stats between teams A & B
- Offense v.s. Defense: Pats are the 24th ranked offense in yards, 29th in passing, 5th in rushing, and 26th in points v.s. Phins with the 17th ranked defense in yards allowed, 18th in passing, 21st in run defense, 2nd points allowed, 3rd in takeaways, and 11th in sacks.
- Defense v.s. Offense: Pats are the 9th ranked defense in yards, 21st in run defense, 7th in points allowed, 15th in takeaways, and 26th in sacks v.s. the Phins ranked 26th in yards, 21st in passing, 26th in rushing, 15th in points.
- Pats are 6-7 and Miami is home and 8-4.
When you look at the numbers, this game isn’t out of reach by any means. In fact, there is a strong statistical advantage for Miami in their +13 turnover differential compared to the Pats +1.
Stop Cam from running
With the 26th ranked scoring offense, the Pats don’t score much at all. Cam rushing the ball is their best weapon, and his 451 yards on the ground is a quarter of their total rush yards on the season. Considering the Pats are 29th in passing, stopping Cam on the ground effectively stops the offense. If Miami doesn’t stop Cam, they screwed up something fierce. If the Phins do stop or limit Cam’s rushing, don’t turn the ball over, and are at least on par with the Pat’s penalty yards, you can bet with the pay per head services Miami wins this game.
It’s really not that complicated.
This time Byron Jones AND Xavien Howard are available, so Brian Flores and Josh Boyer just need to keep Cam in check. Another big key is the addition of Raekwon Davis and Zach Seiler, who didn’t play Week 1. Davis and Seiler will face center David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Joe Thuney, who are excellent. Can the two young interior linemen play effective double gap and control the interior with Christian Wilkens?
Can Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah, and Andrew Van Ginkel not get overwhelmed by Michael Onwenu and lose contain on Cam? Miami is catching a break with Isaiah Wynn is on IR, so they should have a strong advantage here.
The Phins have the tools to win these battles, so there’s no reason why Miami shouldn’t win!
Phins win and turn the corner!
Will I bet my life on the Phins winning? No! But, I feel pretty confident that they win this week. Why not? What have the Patriots shown this season to make us afraid of them? The only wildcard is can Belichick confuse and harass Tua into making mistakes as he did with Justin Herbert?
Miami will be down some of their best receivers, so it will mean Tua must be very smart and patient. But, Tua has shown a surprising ability to mature and develop week over week. After the game against the Chiefs, I have a ton of confidence in the kid.
This Phins fan has seen enough this season to have confidence. I can understand the hesitation in some, but I’m going full ‘fan-atic‘ this week.
Miami wins… and the narrative does a 180-degree turn between the two teams! Go Phins!!!