Win or lose tonight, there is a swell of wanting life AFTER Tua…but it won’t be without much pain
The Miami Dolphins are fighting for their season—and much more—tonight in Prime Time against the New York Jets. A win puts their hopes on life support; a loss pulls the plug entirely. But a defeat brings more than a wasted 2025 season and a last-place finish in the AFC East. While many are focusing on Tua Tagovailoa—and yes, he should be scrutinized for his mistakes—the deeper, systemic issues in this franchise demand attention. Life after Tua requires a total overhaul.
Quarterbacks thrive in the NFL when they have strong teams around them; even great quarterbacks struggle when the roster and system are poor. This isn’t a declaration that Tua is inherently flawed—it’s a statement that the team’s construction and leadership have done more damage to this franchise than the quarterback ever could. When Miami drafts a quarterback in 2026, his destiny will be defined by the framework around him. Given the current roster, cap situation, and instability, it will take years to build a team capable of driving him to success.
The reset for this team and regime and positioning for a top pick at quarterback has been backed into the cake, but let’s be clear what it will look like financially.
Miami is in a terrible place financially
The sweat spot for a team is when a quality quarterback is playing on a cheap contract, and this will be a big lift moving lift moving off Tua and starting a rookie in some regards. But if the Dolphins want to move off Tua in 2026 it will be a major hit in 2026 and 2027 as it frees up money. This means they’ll either keep Tua in 2026 or compromise the team until 2027 lowering the bar for two seasons of the new quarterback’s rookie contract.
Here are the details of the current cap situation in 2026 and 2027.
As per Over the Cap, we are under water in 2026 with only 36 players and cutting Hill, Chubb, and Tua will free up 30 million in 2026, but bring $87 million in Dead Cap that will carry over for 2 to 3 seasons. Trades would help, but other than Hill it doesn’t seem many teams would bite.
Why we are we so broke considering our lack of talent?
You can bet with the best pay per head that the Dead Cap numbers, which directly reflects poorly on the poor management of Chris Grier, holds a massive piece of the puzzle.
In 2025, the Phins are wasting over $56 million, nearly 25% of the cap on players no longer here. And while that number lowers in 2026 to over $33 million or about 14% of the allotted money the team can spend, it’s still a hefty number and it will rise with moving off Tua, Hill, and Chubb.
While we are free and clear of Dead Cap in 2027, we only 29 players (minus Tua, Hill, and Chubb), the Dead Cap will rise after moving off Hill, Tua, and Chubb, although it will free up their sizable salaries.
Moving off Tua is expensive next season
Many fans want to move off Tua. I’m not here to debate that point, but the sticker price for that is massive.
The Dead Money spreads out over a few years, but however you slice it moving off Tua will be $99 million pre-June or $67 million post June in 2026. It looks far more financially feasible to cut Tua in 2027, but that still isn’t cheap until post June, restricting access to Free Agents.
This means 2027 the cap will be flexible, and we’ll be free–mostly–in 2028.
In short: even with the “right quarterback” in 2026, assembling the supporting cast will take time. Moving off Tua could be the correct move—but it comes with financial strings attached. Until the Dolphins install the right leadership, manage the cap intelligently, and draft effectively, no quarterback alone can fix this franchise. Ask Dan Marino—he’ll tell you the same.
