Over the last two seasons, Sieler has tallied 132 tackles, 15 quarterback hits, seven tipped passes, 5.5 sacks, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries as one of the anchors of the Phins defense. But, now in his final year of 2020 extension, Seiler is set to be a Free Agent and score big… and maybe even bigger if he has himself another –or even bigger–season like the last two.
It’s a sure bet with the best pay per head that Sieler should stay in Miami!
But when you look at how much Seiler stands to make in Free Agency, the Dolphins cap over the next two seasons, and the fact that Christian Wilkens is up for a huge payday, the better question is will and can the Dolphins keep him?
I’ve been on the Seiler train since 2019, but…
Over the years I’ve been a huge Zach Seiler fan and even was one of the first to chirp that his signing might be a big deal. But…
Excerpt from Dec. 2019 article “Phins Make Small But Interesting Series of Moves”
… When you look over the contracts coming up, the big commitments already, and the restructures needed for this season, it might be hard to fit Seiler into the equation. I sure hope the Dolphins can and do keep him, but looking over the situation you’ll see it won’t be easy. Currently the Dolphins cap space is minus 16 million! Yes, there are a bunch of moves they can make to free up cap space, but they only have 44 players currently on the roster and some big restructures will hinder their cap flexibility over the next two off seasons.
Below are the top contacts heading into the 2024 offseason.
Below are players who need to be extended after this season or after the 2024 Season.
Clearly, Byron Jones, Emmanuel Ogbah are clear ways to cut and save, and maybe Terron Armstead, Jerome Baker, and Xavien Howard are also possibilities. But a restructure of Hill this season will make him locked into the roster next season and maybe the season after that.
As we move forward, you’ll see how it gets dicey because we only have 27 players on the roster next offseason minus any releases with currently $65 million in cap space minus key players who need to be signed at the end of this season, including Seiler.
Key players with big contract are coming in droves
Tua, Williams, Wilkens, Hunt, Jones, AND Seiler are Free Agents or in line for big money after this season.
Figure the general range for these players now, which will rise a bit:
Connor Williams $10-14 million per season starting in 2024 as a top center
Tua $23 million floor with the 5th year option starting in 2024
Robert Hunt $10-14 million starting in 2024 as a top Right Guard
Brandon Jones $8-13 million per season as a mid-level safety
Then there is Seiler, who looks to make something in the red box range below, likely around $13-16 million per season as the floor. I’m figuring around $15-17 million if he has a good or better 2023 Season compared to 2022. Now, you must add in Christian Wilkens, who will make top shelf money in a mega-money deal, probably in the $18-21 million range!
Can Miami fit near $40 million between two defensive tackles with the above players and another wave coming at the end of 2024?!
Miami has another wave of big signings after the 2024 Season!
After the 2024 Season Miami has another big wave of players to sign with Jaelan Phillips, Javon Holland, Jaylen Waddle, and Kadar Kohou. The good news is they currently have $157 million in cap space, plus the cap bump over the next two seasons. But they only have 11 players under contract and that’s minus Ogbah, Hill, Byron Jones, Howard and Armstead, if Miami moves off them for space. This of course would give them more money.
But, but, but, if you figure the below (with a rise in the numbers below over the next two seasons as well):
$23 million per for Chubb
$45+ million per for Tua
$20 million + per for Wilkens
$25-30 + million per Phillip
$17-20 million per for Holland
$10-14 million per for Connor
$10-14 million per for Hunt
$30+ million for Waddle
That right there is 180 million with only Skylar Thompson, Erik Ezukanma, and Channing Tindall on the roster with Kadar Kohou and Zach Seiler still needing to be added as well as the rest of the 40 other players to make the 53-man roster.
So, to sum it all up you’d be looking at another $10-15 million per for Kohou if he plays well and another $15 + for Seiler bringing the roster price tag to $210 million with 13 players on the roster heading in the 2025 Season!!! And if you push Hill’s lock in date back to far, you’d have to add his contract in as well.
What does all this ‘number crunching’ business mean?
Miami can definitely keep Seiler, but you can only have so many premium priced players. Look at the Bills going through a bit of a cap crisis or the Rams in cap hell. Miami has a peak talents window of 2023 and 2024, what happens after that will depend on what they do this season. I want Zach Seiler to be a Miami Dolphin paired with Christian Wilkens! I just don’t know if they can make it happen given the reality of the numbers. I sure do hope Grier and Co. operate like wizards and make it happen! We’ll see. Go Phins
