Can & Should Phins Beat the Odds In 2019
Odds say the ‘Tank’ is on despite Flores’ statements to the contrary
Miami’s immediate future doesn’t appear bright… depending on how you view ‘the plan’.
No surprise that the Dolphins have the lowest number of any team in the league at a win total of only 5 games with a line of -130 on the under.
The line is 5 over even money and 5 under is -130. This means the favorite is for the Dolphins to win 5 or fewer games. You’d have to gamble $130 on the under to win $100, whereas the over would take a risk of a $100 to win $100.
No other team has 5 games as the over / under in the league.
The best football software providers like www.AcePerHead.com, have set their odds on the win totals of every NFL team for the 2019 Season.
The next worst projection is the Arizona Cardinals at 5½ under -140. After that the Giants are 6 under -150 and Bills are 6 over -130.
In addition, the Dolphins are also the biggest underdogs at +4000 to win the AFC East Division.
This means that if you risk $100 for the Dolphins to win the AFC East and they take the division, then you’ll win $4,000. The obvious favorite is the New England Patriots at -600, then the Jets at +750 and Bills at +1200.
The oddsmakers think little of the Dolphins chances next season… But nothing is set in stone.
However, this is all to be expected.
Frankly, if we don’t flop and win over 5 games next year, then something didn’t go according to the long-term plan.
Sure, Miami could find a QB in the draft this year who turns into a rising star overnight. Whether it’s the 1st Round or beyond, finding franchise quarterback take equal parts skill and luck. Do we have the right measure of either… much less both? I hope we do… but most teams don’t.
So barring a minor miracle, the plan is to get younger and build this team from the bottom up and be in the position to get a top tier QB in the 2020 or 2021 Draft.
Phins have forced themselves into drafting exceedingly well to be successful. Only by nailing this draft can they break expectations. This is another long shot. Miami has plenty of positions to fill before the beginning of training camp. This team isn’t even near ready to fill its Week 1 roster. With this many holes, it’s hard to believe they can shock the oddsmakers as they did in 2016 under Gase.
But that run was complete surprise, so anything is possible… I guess.
Grier’s decision not to go to the garbage bin of Free Agency and overpay shows Miami is focusing on two things:
The first is that Phins want to acquire compensatory draft picks for 2020. Miami is poised to receive 2 or 3 extra picks for the players they lost to Free Agency this offseason. Signing a free agent now, unless they’ve been cut, will negate or lower the round of an awarded pick. Miami is ‘doin’ good’ by sitting tight to stockpile more picks for 2020.
Secondly, Miami will fill out the roster with 2019 Draft Picks and several undrafted rookies. Miami has done pretty well with undrafted rookies in the past. This year, Grier and Co. will need to be far more successful to fill this team with cheap and young players.
None of this makes me think that the oddsmakers are wrong about their predictions… unless we have a special Front Office and coaching staff in South Florida.
Do we?
What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans thoughts about whether Miami will actually win 5 games or fewer next year?
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Maybe we will see a repeat of the 2004 season.
If we lose just beat the Patriots both games that would make it tolerable.
2004 Season was 4 Wins and 12 Losses
The Fins had AJ Feeley after injury to AJ. Fieldler. AJ Feeley was a trad from the Philly Eagle’s. Feeley had trouble against the Blitz, he Held the ball to long, etc. But the game changes with a Wes Welker Kick off return for 74 yards with Miami scoring the next play. The offensive line could not handle the new England blitzing defensive line, the Dolphins offense did not have a 30 yards offensive run or pass play that season. The Dolphins had an aging defense. But Jason Taylor Sack changes the momentum in the game. Which AJ Feeley up to this game had 15 picks against him.
The Half ended New England Rush 68 yards
Passed: 76 yards
Miami 68 yards
Miami Passed 12 yards
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The 4th quarter the score was 28 New England-17 Miami
Fullback/Tailback Sammy Morris Touch down
Brandy had 4 picks in the game
Jason Taylor, Tim Bowden sack Brady at will the last 2 minutes and the secondary had Tom Brandy’s number.
Under 120 seconds AJ Feeler to Derrius Thomas touchdown
But in this game 29/28 Miami Wins: The Dolphins 3rd game of the season
https://youtu.be/lBuMgC9NeAE
Nice flashback, Steve…
Five (5) wins is too much for me. We need to be 1-4 wins tops! This will help the Dolphins to draft next year to be a top 5 pick. I believe the team has its sights set on either Tua from Alabama, or Herbert from Oregon.
I agree, Steve. Unless we have our eyes on a QB this year. We could easily get the wins you want if Fitz goes down or we don’t draft and coach at a B+ level… the schedule appears brutal.
Admin are we sure that we can win 5 games this season?, It would be nice to win both games against the Patriots.
It would take a ton of good moves and luck. My formula is good luck in health a B+ draft and coaching grade gets us 6-8 wins (9 if all of this plus Fitz play out of his mind). Beating PAts twice?… nope. Maybe once though.
As I have said before, this years draft is best athlete available within a prioritized pick. In other words, a stud DL at 13 gets picked over a second round QB available at 13. We need DL, we need OL, we really need LB. By keeping Jones and starting Fitzpatrick at CB, we put a band-aid on a small wound. Jones can go next year. We are okay at RB and can play TE O’Leary at FB, if needed. Ryan Fitzpatrick will win you those five games if Drake, Stills and Butler can stay healthy. Forget Parker – that loser. The key is the running game. Go double TE when required but keep moving those chains. Fitzpatrick loves to throw deep even if it is a press pass!
The defense will look much better with a stud DL. Move Kiko back to middle LB. He is too stupid to play OLB. Baker may develop into a dependable journeyman. No other real LB’s in sight! But with Fitzpatrick at CB and Jones behind him they might hurt some unsuspecting RB. Good punter and good PK dictates you keep them deep if you can avoid turnovers. Get us to the 30 on offense and kick lots of field goals! If we avoid being swept by the Patriots, we can win 6 games. We need to split with our AFC-East competitors and beat the Bengals and the Giants! It’s doable! Note: we might not beat Buffalo or the Patriots this year! Oh, the Giants always look better when they play us. Does anyone have a OIJA BOARD?
“As I have said before, this year’s draft is the best athlete available within a prioritized pick.” I’d agree up to a certain point. RD 1 has so many options, and quality O and D linemen are equal to all positions value throughout the 1st RD that due to the deficit and limited picks that it’s hard for me to believe that they don’t fill the trenches in RD1. Could they grab a WR?! Ted Ginn tells you YUP! Remember in this scheme, bigger is key and a lot of these DE’s will be Jack LBs. So, it could be a DE.
“Forget Parker – that loser. ” OUCH 🙂
“Move Kiko back to middle LB. He is too stupid to play OLB.” YUP.
It is an ugly schedule. If Miami drafts and coaches below B+ and it will be ugly. If they can find a decent quality starter at LG, RT or RG, NT, DE or DT, and CB in the draft, UDFA, and FA, I can see 5-8 wins (maybe 9 if Fitz play out of his mind) if they get some luck in health and calls. If they get unlucky, don’t coach above avg and draft above avg… it could be a 3-5 win season.
No OIJA BOARD… they bring bad luck… and this team has enough of that.