Moving off Tua or Hill forces a complete offensive teardown & rebuild
The Tyreek Hill contract conversation is heating up and could soon be as hot as the Tua Tagovailoa contract conversation. The numbers and film clearly say both Hill and Tua are the weight-bearing columns that prop up the entire Chris Grier offensive build. If you take either one out of the equation the whole thing will collapse like a house of cards… and I’ll prove that in the analytics below. Whatever side of the fence you are on about Tua, the offense has been built around his core skillset and the unique threat of Hill’s speed. Removing Tua’s rare talent of the quick release and anticipatory throwing or Hill’s ability to create game-changing leverage, the offensive line will be thrust into prominence and everything says that would be very bad.
Let me show you the clear evidence:
Tua AND Hill together drive McDaniel’s offense
There are four keys to point to an offensive coordinator’s mindset on how they view their protection compared to the defensive pressure generated: screens, adding blockers, play action, and quick throwing. When an OC uses these call options they are trying to mitigate the pass rush and the more they call them the less they believe their raw protection of five offensive linemen can hold up.
Below is the usage of screens, play-action, and quick throws compared to the rest of the league. The first huge red flag is that Miami was the only team that ranked Top 5 in all these categories.
The statistics make it crystal clear that Mike McDaniel had no choice but to artificially enhance his pass protection with playcalls and play design. If you want a much deeper dive into this topic check out my podcast here.
I created a blockers per pass statistic (BPP) to show the number of blockers Miami used in 2023 and they were high. Miami used an average of 6.1 BPP with a play action adjusted average of 6.7 BPP to handle an average of 5 pass rushers per play. So, when you add in Tua in the dropback, Miami roughly had 8 players occupying 5 rushers leaving an average of 3 receivers in route against 6 cover defenders. So, essentially, all the Dolphins pass catchers were generally double-covered.
Given these analytics, you can be with the best football software that this fast-throwing offense of the Dolphins isn’t just a want, but a deep need.
To put a red bow or bullseye on the reality of it…
The brilliant graphic below by 3 Yards Per Carry’s Chris Kouffman shows fundamentally that the offensive line can’t handle their assignments when these elements are removed. True Pass Set grade evaluates a blocker’s ability to handle a pass rusher outside of play action, screen plays, throws faster than 2 seconds and longer than 4 seconds, and rollouts. Considering Miami’s high usage of all the blocker-boosting tools, the True Pass Set Blocking was a very small portion of the Dolphins’ offensive linemen’s assignments. Despite this highly protected framework, the offensive blockers failed at the highest rate over the last 14 years by a country mile!
So, if you take Tua out of the equation, the ball will come out slower unless you find someone with his quick release or someone who processes at an elite level. I did a whole podcast comparing the Dolphins fast throw offense with the Tom Brady and Bucs fast throw offense on my podcast. There are a ton of interesting nuggets, but in quick summation: ‘Good luck in finding someone to hold this offense up with elite processing as Brady or someone who throws as fast as Tua’. And again, if you take out Hill and his ability to drive off defense and get deep into the pocket quickly, then this offense will need to block longer using fewer artificial call enhancements. This would be a poor recipe for success, especially when you factor in their inability to run the football consistently or effectively enough.
The good news… or possibilities that offer hope
First: Hill and Tua are here 100% for 2024, so there’s nothing to worry about until the 2025 Season.
Second: the additions of Jonnu Smith, Odell Beckham Jr., and the growth of Devon Achane in the pass game create unbelievable leverage to open up the fast throw game and protect the offensive line with less help this season. These players added to Waddle, Hill, and Tua are certain to put up more yards, 1st Downs, and points this season that could get this Phins team to where they want to go.
But, whether you like this offensive design, Tua, Hill, or not, this offense is driven by #1 AND #10. Take either one out and this whole offense will flounder. So get your popcorn ready, enjoy the show, and see where the 2024 Dolphins take us! Go Phins!!!