Tua is back at practice & will play this week vs the Cards
The Miami Dolphins took a crushing loss to the Indianapolis Colts 16-10 that was mostly caused by their own sloppiness leaving them a record of 2-4. With Tua returning this week against the Cardinals, the hope is he can help the Phins turn it around and get back on track. Miami has three challenging games coming up, and even though Tua will improve the offense it’s a tall task for Tua to win enough to get Miami back in playoff contention. I guess while there is hope, when there is a chance, however small.
Currently, Miami has 10% chance to make the postseason according to the NFL statistics. It doesn’t take the best football software to know those aren’t great odds. So, how much will Tua uplift the team, and can they realistically have a heroic turnaround?
QBs are key & the most dependent in the game
Tua’s release, accuracy, and anticipatory throws will lift this passing game far more than other backups. I mean how can he not? Tua and Waddle combined only had 19 yards vs the Colts. But, even with Tua in Weeks 1 and 2 something was off on this offense. Since Tua’s injury Mike McDaniel has leaned into the run game more. Maybe a commitment to the run game and Tua uplifting the passing it will be enough to overcome the odds?
In the two games Tua played in he had a ‘Clean Time to Throw’ of 2.01 seconds 82% of the time and 5 ‘Big Time Throws’ to 2 ‘Turn Over Worthy’ plays, according to Pro Football Focus. The downs side is in that 82% of clean throws the depth of target was only 6.7 yards. This is the lowest depth of target in his three years with McDaniel. In 2022 Tua had an unbelievable ‘Average Depth of Target’ of 10.3 yards per throw that fell starkly to 7.1 ADOT and now 6.7 yards. This has followed his drop in in being blitzed from 25.5% in 2022 to 22.7% in 2023 and now the blitzing has cratered so far to 13.7%!
QBs love to be blitzed, if it gets picked up
Clearly opposing defenses are selling out to stop the pass and in part this is why the run game has risen. But all the rushing yards haven’t led to many points as the Dolphins are averaging only 11.7 PPG, which is the least in the NFL.
By comparison, the Baltimore Ravens lead the league with 31.1 PPG and they are blitzed 38.3%. Washington Commanders are tied for 1st with 31.1 PPG and they are blitzed 36.9%. Lions are 3rd with 30.3 PPG and they are blitzed 41.0%!
In fact, if you go down the list of all the top scoring teams, they are blitz triple the amount Tua is blitzed except for Minnesota who is blitzed double.
Maybe there’s something to this connection? Maybe if we can find a way to draw the blitz we can get back on track?
Well, Arizona beat the Charges and won’t be an easy out. Can the Dolphins win this week and draw closer to .500? Certainly, even the theoretical chances of redeeming this season will be over if we lose. Let’s hope not. Go Phins!!!