Miami Dolphins defense absolutely killed the offense in Saturday’s scrimmage.
Defense and two field goals could make Miami a playoff bound team in 2016.
Miami Dolphins Cornerback Byron Maxwell stated a few weeks back, “We are a defensive team.”
Most smiled. It was a spunky little statement.
After Saturday’s scrimmage, maybe Maxwell was spot on.
What If I were to say, based on statistics, that if Maxwell is right and Miami adds just two field goals, one from each side of the ball, it could make all the difference in 2016 whether the “O” explodes or not?
Intriguing?
Now hold that thought for a bit as I make my point.
I promise, I’m not being cheeky – on a Fin Fans honor. Both points will converge and bring hope for the 2016 season.
With the influx of “offensive talent”, added to a decent offense in 2015, most (including me) expected that this year, the Dolphins would be led to win games by generating yards and points.
Not so fast. It appears at this point, it just might be the other way around.
In 2015, the Dolphins offense heavily relied on the pass game. It didn’t work out very well for them as they put up lots of yards, but had few points to show for it. In last nights scrimmage, the passing game again didn’t work…This time though, it wasn’t because of lots of yards but few scores – it was because the offense just didn’t produce much of anything at all: 8 drives with 1 first down and Ryan Tannehill going 4-6 for 22 yards.
The defense simply overwhelmed the offense Saturday night.
Most casual fans measure the best offense by the team that gains the most yards per game. However, more savvy fans realize that points per game is the most crucial stat in the offensive output, because points win games, not yards. Last season Miami was 27th worst in the league in points per game last year at 19.4.
The Dolphins will improve on that…it’s a bit scary right now, but it doesn’t take the best pay per head expert to see that propped up dead-men in aqua and orange could do a better job than 2015.
But, the question is how much better will they do? Right now it’s impossible to say, but let’s be very conservative: an extra field goal a game. Just one more kick between the uprights in the span of 60 mins.
It’s a fair amount. I’m not “gettin’ crazy”, drunk on Phin Fan “cool aide”…maybe drunk on something else, but that’s altogether different.
If Miami’s offense is even somewhat capable and posts just 3 points more per game, they would rank, given last years stats, somewhere between 16-19th (the Broncos were ranked 19th).
Last year, the Dolphins defense was ranked 19th in points allowed, giving up 24.3 per game.
If you figure that Miami can also shave off a field goal on defense, they’d be ranked 13th or 14th in PPG. Thus, the defense would lead the Dolphins as the highest ranking side of the ball in the most crucial aspect of the game.
Yes, dozens of underlying aspects go into PPG, but regardless, in most of them, Miami appears to have improved from last year.
In just these two modest improvements, Miami would have a point differential of 1.1 or 13th or 14th given last years rankings.
That’s one or two spots out of playoff contention, folks.
But, with what we are seeing so far, this defense could very well do even better than 3pts. If they even increase it by fractions, your talking about steps up the food chain. Last year, the Broncos had 3.7 point differential with a 4th ranked 18.5 PPG.
This is where we run into the most crucial aspect that ties all this together…the offensive line.
O-Line supports all aspects of offense, but time of possession fuels defenses with fresh legs in games and over the course of a long season. Also, a defensive team with give the “O” a short field to work with and more chances at that extra 3 pts.
Again, this year O-line doesn’t need to be the 90’s Dallas teams. They just need to move up to even the high teens, and this whole team will come together.
On a sobering note, they will need a hell of a lot more fire than last nights scrimmage, that’s for sure.
I see the defense as a lock to reduce their numbers. I see it’s a lock that the offense will be better than last year. Can they get at least 3 pts on each side of the ball? If they do this, 2016 will be the best season since 2008. Go Fins!!!