Given their history, this Jets / Dolphins game won’t be a walk in the park
The Jets will be fighting for their season
Despite the drama of Lawrence Timmons, the trade for Stephone Anthony, injury to Jordan Phillips and dings to Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker, the Dolphins must remain laser focused on beating the Jets in New York this Sunday.
No doubt Miami is the better team, but games against the Jets are almost always fierce competitions for the Dolphins–especially on the road.
Miami will need their A game to get the win… despite the Jets 0-2 start.
The perception is that the Jets are tanking the season. In their first two games they have given up an average of 33 points per game, which is the worst in the league; Also, they have only scored 16 points per game, which is tied for 22nd worst in the league.
The Jets aren’t a good football team and won’t win many games this year, but they are competent in a few areas. For the most part, it’s been their major weakness that has done them in two weeks in a row: run defense–specifically between the tackles.
Now given that Miami was able to run the ball against the Chargers–also a 3-4 Defense–this appears to be a slam dunk for a Dolphins win… not so fast.
A notable differences between the Chargers defense and the Jets might pose a stiff challenge to the Dolphins run game, if they aren’t careful.
Miami’s interior Offensive Line will be in the spotlight in Week 3
Chargers have their defensive strength on the wings with Bosa and Ingram. Ja’Wuan James had one of his best games as a Dolphins, and Laremy Tunsil was excellent in run blocking. Their play went a long way towards neutralizing the Chargers strength of pass rush and opening holes for Ajayi. Both were a major reason why Miami was in position to win at the end of the game.
But the Jets have their strength on the interior of the Defensive Line with Pro Bowlers Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams at defensive end, and savvy vet Steve McLendon in the middle. This will put the onus on the Dolphins interior O-Line of Anthony Steen and Jermon Buhrod–with Jesse Davis in spot duty–to play a more critical role this week.
If you follow the recipe for victory of both the Bills and Raiders, being very successful at running the ball inside is the key to victory. But the Bills and Raiders have two of the top 5 Guards in the NFL in Richie Incognito and Kelechi Osemele to make that inside run game happen.
Man do we miss you Richie!
In the Zone-Stretch running game a Guard doesn’t always have to win his match up to help facilitate positive yardage, especially with a back like Jay Ajayi. Just shielding a defender can be enough to create an opportunity for a RB. In the film below, Steen had a mixed bag of success in these 3 plays–2 out of the 3 was enough for a winning snap. The fourth play was sweet on Steen’s part and showed vet savvy. Too bad Ajayi couldn’t take advantage.
This week Steen will be facing a much greater talent level on the DL compared to last week. Also, unlike last week, Steen will not have a height advantage. Aside from Bosa (who plays mostly 4+ technique and is a problem for Tackles), every defender Steen faced against the Chargers was two inches shorter than he is. This week he’ll be at a disadvantage of reach, which could add extra difficulty to his assignments against a brutal mix of speed and strength with Williams, so he must get excellent leverage play in and play out.
Maybe Davis, who is taller, bigger, and better at the point of attack, will see more action?
The Jets first two games were on the road
Then there’s Bushrod, who had a fine game against the Chargers–one of his best games as a Fin. Bushrod will also have to be at his best this week as he faces a beast in Wilkerson. Even though he won’t have the disadvantage of size and reach that Steen will have, Bushrod will have one of his biggest tests of the entire season.
The film below is a small highlight reel of Bushrod’s success in Week 2, and of both Guards excellent play at the second level in the run game.
Miami must do what they do: run the football on offense, dink and dunk it down the field, and along the way sprinkle in a few long passes for chunk yards. In the run game, the edges will be softer than last week as the Jets OLB’s are young and inexperienced. I expect to see more of Kenyan Drake who can hit the boundaries fast. But the inside will be the key to all of this.
Against the Chargers, Miami had a lot of 3 yard gains inside that helped set everything up. This must be on the menu again this week. But if the Guards struggle and that 3 yards drops to 2 or less, this will make Miami’s path to victory much tougher.
Given the Charger tend to slightly play their ends wider than the Jets, the Guards will have less free release. This too could hamper the Dolphins inside run game and be a further test on the Fins Guards. Of course this could help the Fins hit the perimeter, if the Guards do their job.
There should be no reason why Miami’s offense can’t put up 20 plus points on this Jets Defense. But again, given the formula for victory verse the Jets in the first two weeks, rushing the football is key. The Bills put up 190 yards on the ground and the Raiders 180 and both led in time of possession… But both teams have Offensive Lines ranked in the top third of the league.
Ground game is key against the Jets
Can the Dolphins Offensive Line keep pace with the Bills and Raiders? Will they turn out to be a big surprise in 2017? If they can make this major leap forward, let the fireworks begin! More realistically, if they can just break out of the bottom third in OL play and get to the middle of the pack, then the Fins will see a lot of success.
Given that the best price per head software on the market opened this game with the Dolphins as the -6 point favorite, maybe they are starting to see Miami as a little better than the 7.5 wins they’ve predicted? It’s been a long time since the Dolphins were a -6 point favorite on the road against any team? Is this the start of the money boys back track?
For another ‘shock the world season’ to happen, Miami must run the ball, and their Guard play must be better than originally anticipated. Bottom line is, the proof is in the pudding. I hope like heck we Fins Fans will be wanting extra helping come Sunday. Go Fins!!!
*video and some play analysis by M.J.