Did Herbert Play Himself Into Phins Plans?

Herbert has a ton of tools… but consistency and killer instinct are among the questions

Instead of turning pro in 2019, Justin Herbert stayed for his senior year and had his best season with 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns, six interceptions for a 74.1 QBR. Herbert followed up the season up with being named the Senior Bowl’s practice player of the week and MVP of the Senior Bowl going 9-for-13 for 83 passing yards and one touchdown.

While Herbert made the most of his decision to play his senior year, questions still linger about how good he’ll be as a pro.

With Joe Burrow either off the table or costing a fortune in a trade-up and the uncertainty surrounding Tua’s multiple injuries, has Herbert played himself into the Dolphins plans?

I’ve haven’t ever been very high on Herbert going to the Phins.

Foolishly, I think my ‘not-so-high estimations’ started with his name. Chanting Herbert doesn’t have the same feel as Marino… (I guess Justin has a better ring to it). But, it wasn’t just my stupid name bias that soured me on him. Talk of Herbert’s tendency to play small against good competition cemented my low appraisal. Also, his personality has a ‘Matt Ryan’ nervous demeanor. There isn’t that firey leadership I want in my QB. So I wonder is playing small hardwired into him?

But, most of these opinions were based on only a cursory observation. After digging past the surface (interesting take here), the context of his career and his long list of quality skills has me wondering, “Maybe Herbert should be on the Dolphins radar?”

This isn’t a reversal of my former opinion… But I am a bit more curious about Herbert being a Dolphin.

First, the Systems Herbert ran in college has changed from a hindrance to an asset for Miami with the hiring of Chan Gailey.

Herbert played under three coaches with three systems in college. His last two systems were the Spread and Pistol. In his one season in the spread, he was having his best season (80.1 QBR) until he broke his collar bone. Given that Chan Gaily runs the spread, this is a good marriage. Also, the pistol is now popular in the NFL and shares some similarities with the spread. And despite being 6’6”, Herbert is athletic, has some speed, and throws an excellent stiff arm. While not in the same ballpark as Lamar Jackson or even Josh Allen, Herbert is dangerous on the move as a thrower and runner.

This level of mobility is an asset in modern NFL, the spread, and pistol systems.

Also, the spread system depends on a smart quarterback processing and correctly analyzing a ton of information. Pre-snap diagnosis is as important as post-snap because the spread forces matchups and knowing where to throw and where the blitz is coming from is critical. Intelligence and a complete understanding of the system are key components to success in this system. By all accounts, Herbert has an exceptional football IQ, is a tireless worker, and was given full-field reads…

… But he’s also made head-scratching decisions.

I don’t know who bears more responsibility for Herbert playing small, the OC, the system or Herbert? After watching a few games of his this year, I didn’t like the system at all. Still, the buck stops on Herbert’s door.

Herbert: The good and bad
  • Tall 6’6” and very agile and mobile. But, there’s never been a high-quality NFL QB over 6’5”.
  • One of the best arms in the draft and shows accuracy all over the field.
  • Experienced QB in multiple systems, but has never dominated in any of them.
  • He still needs refinement, but can ‘marinate’ for a season or so. Fitzpatrick is also the perfect role model for Herbert’s weaknesses.
  • Not a fiery leader, lacks an aggressive nature and can make questionable decisions.
  • If Herbert can get ‘fixed’ sky is the limit and can likely be had in the 7-13 range in the draft.
  • He has a solid floor of talent, so he shouldn’t be a total bust in the worst-case scenario.
  • Given all his talent, even with his solid success, Herbert has underachieved.
  • Inconsistent throwing motion.
  • Didn’t have top-flight receivers like Tua.
  • Interestingly, questionable decision making was a big complaint about
    Marino in the draft.

Even the sports betting software sites don’t like drafting Herbert with the 5th Pick…

… Picking him a bit later would be the far better move… Although, the Chargers at #6 might take him.

I’m all for trading back with the 5th Pick and acquiring more picks. So in a move back or even a slight move up from Miami’s 18th Pick Miami, I could get on board with drafting Herbert. But, even though I can see the potential in Herbert, I’m not sold. Of course, I’m not an expert in quarterback evaluation, so however it goes, I’ll be in a holding pattern until there is gameplay data to make an informed decision.

I’m of the mind Miami should take a QB every year because the value of a good one is worth the risk. At the right price, Herbert does make sense. But, if Chris Grier overreaches, Herbert must end up much better than solid. And then there’s always the specter of Tua ending up great hanging over Miami’s decision at QB. Miami’s 2020 Draft sure is filled with plenty of opportunities for promise and disaster. Go Phins!!!


 

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10 comments

  • Steve

    I heard that Love and Gordon did well, I have not seen the Senior Bowl yet! Anthony Gordon’s stat’s was above Joe Burrow’s until the Bowl games started. Gordon’s is mot mobile and this is the issue I have with him, I believed he rush for maybe 20 yards the season if that?

    Love has the tools I’ve lacked to see Love Will a Win against a worthy team. Maybe I’m wrong?
    Utah’s Quarterback Tyler Huntley and Virginia’s Quarterback Bryce Perkins are both tougher than Love and can Will a win themselves. That’s just my opinion!

    Bryce Perkins ACC Coastal conference leader with overall 9-5 and 7-0 home games
    and loss to (Clemson ACC Atlantic Champs)
    https://www.google.com/search?q=virginia+football+2019&rlz=1C1GCEV_enUS867US867&oq=virginia+football+2019&aqs=chrome..69i57.11173j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=t;/m/026cfsc;6;/m/012hfxch;mt;fp;1;;

    Tyler Huntley Utah 10 wins beat Anthony Gordon and Jacob Eason (2 losses J. QB Hubert Oregon and QB Sam Ehlinger Texas long horns)
    https://www.google.com/search?q=utah+football+schedule+2019&rlz=1C1GCEV_enUS867US867&oq=utah+football&aqs=chrome.4.69i57j0l4j69i60l3.34041j1j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#sie=t;/m/04n7ps6;6;/m/012hfxch;mt;fp;1;;

  • Steve

    Many of us Dol-Fans are not really being realistic about Herbert. Herbert has gift’s that we have not had in a Quarterback ever.

    Herbert is a good fit for the Dolphins!
    1. Strong arm
    2. Accurate
    3. Extend plays with mobility
    4. Health to play without worry

    He is big, strong has an excellent arm and impressive mobility, a must in this era of spread offenses. While he plays in a horizontal, screen-based offense that doesn’t suit his talents, he still never quite had a dominant outing against a real defense. I’m saying the Talent is there! He’s only 21 years old needing A coach and Fans who believe’s in him.

  • Steve

    Hello Admin and Dol-Fans

    Did Herbert Play Himself Into Phins Plans? “YES” We are at the crossroads on QB’s. We “CAN AFFORD” to draft in the 1st or 2nd round for a QB plus draft a day two or day 3 QB. “Regardless who we select. No excuse not to have strong arm, no excuse not to be accurate, no excuse not able to extend plays with mobility”.

    DILLON GABRIEL, BRANDON WIMBUSH, DARRIEL MACK JR. – UCF
    Preseason Rank: 64; Week 6 Rank: 15; Week 12 Rank: 18 Projected 2023 draft year
    He was the only quarterback in the country to unleash 29 or more big-time throws without throwing double-digit turnover-worthy passes, finishing with 30 big-time throws to just seven turnover-worthy passes. I
    UCF QB Dillon Gabriel Highlights vs Stanford (2019)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9w20HhN5XUA
    ———————————————————————————————————-
    Justin Herbert:Projected 4th to 10th picked
    He was kept clean on 77.2% of his drop backs this year, the ninth-highest rate, and his ability to work through his progressions when free from pressure was among the best in the country. It also didn’t matter whether he threw passes deep or short, he was dominant across the route tree but had his most success throwing vertically, uncorking the nation’s third-most big-time throws on vertically-led routes. He leaves Eugene with no grade lower than 77.0 in the passing game for a season
    ————————————————————————————————————
    Jordan Love Utah State: Projected early 2nd Rounder:But will most likely go in the 1st round
    JORDAN LOVE – UTAH STATE
    Preseason Rank: 20; Week 6 Rank: 66; Week 12 Rank: 78
    Throwing the sixth-most big-time throws in the country, Love counteracted his 31 big-time throws with another 26 turnover-worthy passes, ranking as the fourth-most. He was a high variance quarterback who was his best when he got the ball out of his hands quickly. He led the country with eight turnover-worthy passes on throws 3.0 or more seconds after the snap, and he was just one of eight quarterbacks to throw 22 or more big-time throws in less than 3.0 seconds after the snap.
    —————————————————————————————————–
    Ranked Mid Second Rounder:
    JALEN HURTS – OKLAHOMA Preseason Rank: 11; Week 6 Rank: 2; Week 12 Rank: 3
    https://www.instagram.com
    Hurts connected on downfield pass attempts almost at will and finished the year as the country’s 10th-ranked passer on all throws 10 or more yards downfield. Hurst brings leadership.
    ———————————————————————————————————
    Ranked late second Rounder:
    Jake Fromm Georgia Preseason Rank: 9; Week 6 Rank: 6; Week 12 Rank: 7
    Finishing with the 10th-most big-time throws on passes outside the numbers. He had elite passing grades on throws over the middle just the same as he did on throws outside, finishing with the 10th-most big-time throws on passes outside the numbers.
    ————————————————————————————————————–
    Tyler Huntley Utah Senior Ranked 7th Rounder moved up to possibly 4th rounder
    TYLER HUNTLEY – UTAH Preseason Rank: 27; Week 6 Rank: 10; Week 12 Rank: 6
    https://youtu.be/kvS846pDyb8
    On all throws targeted at least 10 yards downfield, Huntley was the country’s fifth highest-graded quarterback and isolating even further downfield, on all throws at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, he was the nation’s sixth-ranked passer. He has every bit of arm talent to find all levels of the field and was truly dominant when given a chance to find his receivers on longer-developing pass attempts.
    ————————————————————————————————————–
    BROCK PURDY – IOWA STATE Preseason Rank: 8; Week 6 Rank: 9; Week 12 Rank: 8 projected 2022 NFL Draft
    —————————————————————————————————————
    TANNER MORGAN – MINNESOTA Preseason Rank: 86; Week 6 Rank: 27; Week 12 Rank: 9 Projected 2022 NFL Draft
    —————————————————————————————————————
    TUA TAGOVAILOA, MAC JONES – ALABAMA PRESEASON RANK: 2; WEEK 6 RANK: 3; WEEK 12 RANK: 10
    REHABBING FROM INJURY
    —————————————————————————————————————
    JAKE LUTON – OREGON STATE DAY TWO OR THREE PROJECTION “(VERY UNDERRATED)”
    “HE WAS THE ONLY QUARTERBACK IN THE COUNTRY TO THROW 11 OR MORE DEEP TOUCHDOWNS WITHOUT AN INTERCEPTION THIS SEASON.
    PRESEASON RANK: 49; WEEK 6 RANK: 18; WEEK 12 RANK: 16
    JAKE LUTON (OREGON STATE QB) VS OKLAHOMA STATE 2019
    https://YOUTU.BE/-LD_-R38OQ0
    THE 6’7″, 229-POUND SIGNAL-CALLER COMPLETED 26 OF 35 PASSES FOR 288 YARDS AND FOUR TOUCHDOWNS. SO FAR THIS SEASON, LUTON HAS 23 TOUCHDOWNS AGAINST JUST TWO INTERCEPTIONS, HE WAS TERRIFIC ON DEEP SHOTS, FINISHING AS THE EIGHTH-RANKED QUARTERBACK ON ALL THROWS 20 OR MORE YARDS DOWNFIELD, COMPLETING 26-OF-51 DEEP ATTEMPTS FOR 836 YARDS AND 13 TOUCHDOWNS AGAINST NO INTERCEPTIONS.
    ADMIN I BELIEVED THE PROBLEM WITH LUTON WAS HIS INJURY AND FOR AS I KNOW HE HAS RECOVERED?
    JAKE LUTON, QUARTERBACKPROJECTED ROUND: 7 OR PRIORITY UDFA (UNDRAFTED FREE AGENT)RANG ON LUTON: THE SIZE AND ARM ARE INTRIGUING BUT LIKE MOST BIG GUYS, LUTON HAS AN EXTENDED WINDUP AND RELEASE THAT HELPS TELEGRAPH HIS PASSES.
    JAKE LUTON LEADS THE BEAVERS TO THE VICTORY WITH 6 TD
    JAKE LUTON HIGHLIGHTS VS UCLA https://WWW.PATREON.COM/VICTORVALIANTYT
    ————————————————————————————————————–
    CALEB EVANS – UL-MONROE RANKED MAYBE UN DRAFTED
    https://YOUTU.BE/MJ0ZPUIOLFKLOUISIANA-MONROE VS. FLORIDA STATE FOOTBALL HIGHLIGHTS (2019)

    Louisiana Monroe vs. Florida State: FSU had to survive a scare from Louisiana-Monroe, winning in overtime 45-44
    PRESEASON RANK: 75; WEEK 6 RANK: 34; WEEK 12 RANK: 21
    HE CAPPED HIS IMPRESSIVE CAREER WITH A CAREER-HIGH 21 TOUCHDOWNS, 2,930 YARDS AND ELITE OVERALL GRADE OF 89.3.
    HE EVADED PRESSURE IN THE POCKET LIKE A SEASONED VETERAN AND DESPITE PRESSURE ON 131 DROP BACKS, TOOK A SACK JUST 13 TIMES. His best work came on throws over the middle where he completed 69.1% of his pass attempts even with 15 dropped balls and threw 12 of his total touchdowns.
    ————————————————————————————————————-
    Bryce Perkins Virginia Quarterback: Projected 6th Rounder:
    career-best 3,538 yards this season, putting him over 6,000 for his two-year Virginia career.
    Watch “#9 Florida vs #24 Virginia Highlights | 2019 Orange Bowl Highlights | College Football” on YouTube
    https://youtu.be/C2B5B6r8mjw
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozqu982S2TI
    https://youtu.be/I3mr5MY9yaY

  • Steve

    Day 3 Quarterback (Back ups Who could be a good fit for the Dolphins)

    231 JAKE LUTON – OREGON STATE Very underrated due to injury I believed.
    Preseason Rank: 49; Week 6 Rank: 18; Week 12 Rank: 16
    DILLON GABRIEL, BRANDON WIMBUSH, DARRIEL MACK JR. – UCF
    PRESEASON RANK: 64; WEEK 6 RANK: 15; WEEK 12 RANK: 18
    TYLER HUNTLEY – UTAH PRESEASON RANK: 27; WEEK 6 RANK: 10; WEEK 12 RANK: 6 PROJECTED LATE 4th 7TH ROUNDER
    CALEB EVANS – UL-MONROE
    Preseason Rank: 75; Week 6 Rank: 34; Week 12 Rank: 21

  • Steve

    Hello Admin and DolFans

    2019 Preseason to week 12 ranking of the top 10 Quarterbacks/ Admin I only added projected draft year and round.

    BY CAM MELLOR
    JAN 14, 2020

    PFF Rankings: Final college football starting quarterback rankings
    JOE BURROW – LSU Preseason Rank: 17; Week 6 Rank: 1; Week 12 Rank: 1 NFL Projected #1 picked
    JUSTIN FIELDS – OHIO STATE Preseason Rank: 16; Week 6 Rank: 4; Week 12 Rank: 2 Projected 2021 draft
    JALEN HURTS – OKLAHOMA Preseason Rank: 11; Week 6 Rank: 2; Week 12 Rank: 3 Projected late second NFL Rounder
    Justin Herbert Oregon Preseason Rank: 3; Week 6 Rank: 19; Week 12 Rank: 4 Projected Early NFL 1st Rounder
    TREVOR LAWRENCE – CLEMSON Preseason Rank: 1; Week 6 Rank: 17; Week 12 Rank: 5 Projected NFL early 1st Rounder
    TYLER HUNTLEY – UTAH Preseason Rank: 27; Week 6 Rank: 10; Week 12 Rank: 6 Projected late 7th Rounder
    Jake Fromm Georgia Preseason Rank: 9; Week 6 Rank: 6; Week 12 Rank: 7 Projected: Late 2nd NFL Rounder 2020
    BROCK PURDY – IOWA STATE Preseason Rank: 8; Week 6 Rank: 9; Week 12 Rank: 8 Projected NFL draft 2022
    TANNER MORGAN – MINNESOTA Preseason Rank: 86; Week 6 Rank: 27; Week 12 Rank: 9 Projected NFL draft 2022
    TUA TAGOVAILOA, MAC JONES – ALABAMA Preseason Rank: 2; Week 6 Rank: 3; Week 12 Rank: 10 Projected early 1st Rounder

    The bottom line is Joe Burrow’s did not make the top 10 until about the end of October 2020. QB performances flu-ate from game to game. The questioned is how many of the QB’s listed above will received the proper NFL Coaching and play on Sundays? None of them will just start in the NFL so who can we Love?

  • Steve

    Hello Admin and DolFans

    Nice Article!

    Herbert borned March 10, 1998
    age 21 years21 year old Kid who is the Proto Type Quarterback etc. (Herbert 1st game of the 2019 season was against Alburn and Herbert played well,(https://youtu.be/N4Li6jkRKjU). Herbert finished the season defeating Wisconsin in a Bowl Game.

    Compared to Wisconsin and Ohio State game Summary:
    Fields threw three touchdown passes and the Buckeyes defense pitched a second-half shutout and beat No. 10 Wisconsin 34-21 to help No. 2 Ohio State claim an unprecedented third straight outright Big Ten championship and likely their first playoff trip in three years.

    Justin Herbert entered Wednesday with one rushing touchdown all year, but he scored three times with his legs against Wisconsin, leading Oregon to a 28-27 win in a back-and-forth Rose Bowl.

    Herbert led the charge on offense, while safety Brady Breeze made huge plays on defense and special teams to help turn momentum. The Ducks were out gained by a healthy 322-204 margin but won the turnover battle 4-1, scoring their final three touchdowns off turnovers.

    Yes! Herbert has his flaw’s but he has learned to extend plays by rushing etc.

    https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/oregon-vs-wisconsin-live-score-updates-highlights-rose-bowl-2020/ysnjnr1jleev1s6tlz6377h05

    The questioned is can we love Hubert I think we can!