Did Herbert Play Himself Into Phins Plans?

M.J.

5 years ago

Herbert has a ton of tools… but consistency and killer instinct are among the questions

Instead of turning pro in 2019, Justin Herbert stayed for his senior year and had his best season with 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns, six interceptions for a 74.1 QBR. Herbert followed up the season up with being named the Senior Bowl’s practice player of the week and MVP of the Senior Bowl going 9-for-13 for 83 passing yards and one touchdown.

While Herbert made the most of his decision to play his senior year, questions still linger about how good he’ll be as a pro.

With Joe Burrow either off the table or costing a fortune in a trade-up and the uncertainty surrounding Tua’s multiple injuries, has Herbert played himself into the Dolphins plans?

I’ve haven’t ever been very high on Herbert going to the Phins.

Foolishly, I think my ‘not-so-high estimations’ started with his name. Chanting Herbert doesn’t have the same feel as Marino… (I guess Justin has a better ring to it). But, it wasn’t just my stupid name bias that soured me on him. Talk of Herbert’s tendency to play small against good competition cemented my low appraisal. Also, his personality has a ‘Matt Ryan’ nervous demeanor. There isn’t that firey leadership I want in my QB. So I wonder is playing small hardwired into him?

But, most of these opinions were based on only a cursory observation. After digging past the surface (interesting take here), the context of his career and his long list of quality skills has me wondering, “Maybe Herbert should be on the Dolphins radar?”

This isn’t a reversal of my former opinion… But I am a bit more curious about Herbert being a Dolphin.

First, the Systems Herbert ran in college has changed from a hindrance to an asset for Miami with the hiring of Chan Gailey.

Herbert played under three coaches with three systems in college. His last two systems were the Spread and Pistol. In his one season in the spread, he was having his best season (80.1 QBR) until he broke his collar bone. Given that Chan Gaily runs the spread, this is a good marriage. Also, the pistol is now popular in the NFL and shares some similarities with the spread. And despite being 6’6”, Herbert is athletic, has some speed, and throws an excellent stiff arm. While not in the same ballpark as Lamar Jackson or even Josh Allen, Herbert is dangerous on the move as a thrower and runner.

This level of mobility is an asset in modern NFL, the spread, and pistol systems.

Also, the spread system depends on a smart quarterback processing and correctly analyzing a ton of information. Pre-snap diagnosis is as important as post-snap because the spread forces matchups and knowing where to throw and where the blitz is coming from is critical. Intelligence and a complete understanding of the system are key components to success in this system. By all accounts, Herbert has an exceptional football IQ, is a tireless worker, and was given full-field reads…

… But he’s also made head-scratching decisions.

I don’t know who bears more responsibility for Herbert playing small, the OC, the system or Herbert? After watching a few games of his this year, I didn’t like the system at all. Still, the buck stops on Herbert’s door.

Herbert: The good and bad

Tall 6’6” and very agile and mobile. But, there’s never been a high-quality NFL QB over 6’5”.
One of the best arms in the draft and shows accuracy all over the field.
Experienced QB in multiple systems, but has never dominated in any of them.
He still needs refinement, but can ‘marinate’ for a season or so. Fitzpatrick is also the perfect role model for Herbert’s weaknesses.
Not a fiery leader, lacks an aggressive nature and can make questionable decisions.
If Herbert can get ‘fixed’ sky is the limit and can likely be had in the 7-13 range in the draft.
He has a solid floor of talent, so he shouldn’t be a total bust in the worst-case scenario.
Given all his talent, even with his solid success, Herbert has underachieved.
Inconsistent throwing motion.
Didn’t have top-flight receivers like Tua.
Interestingly, questionable decision making was a big complaint about
Marino in the draft.

Even the sports betting software sites don’t like drafting Herbert with the 5th Pick…

… Picking him a bit later would be the far better move… Although, the Chargers at #6 might take him.

I’m all for trading back with the 5th Pick and acquiring more picks. So in a move back or even a slight move up from Miami’s 18th Pick Miami, I could get on board with drafting Herbert. But, even though I can see the potential in Herbert, I’m not sold. Of course, I’m not an expert in quarterback evaluation, so however it goes, I’ll be in a holding pattern until there is gameplay data to make an informed decision.

I’m of the mind Miami should take a QB every year because the value of a good one is worth the risk. At the right price, Herbert does make sense. But, if Chris Grier overreaches, Herbert must end up much better than solid. And then there’s always the specter of Tua ending up great hanging over Miami’s decision at QB. Miami’s 2020 Draft sure is filled with plenty of opportunities for promise and disaster. Go Phins!!!

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