Do or Die
The Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills at 8:30pm on Thursday Night Football in Miami, this is a must win game for both teams. Both teams are 5-4 and both teams have their fair share of injuries, and both teams desperately need this victory in order to keep pace in the AFC playoff race. The Dolphins have lost 4 out of the last 5 against Buffalo, and will be finally looking to get the Buffalo monkey off their backs.
The Bills have one of the best defensive lines in football, and the Dolphins will be fielding a make-shift offensive line after last Sunday’s season ending injury to Branden Albert. Miller will also be limited in his running duties, so to say that Tannehill and the offense will have their hands full is an under statement. Lazor and the Dolphins are going to need a lot of short quick passes and screen passes to at least stunt some of the Bills pressure. I hope Lazor has a few creative plays in his bag of tricks, because if he does this is the game to start taking them out. The biggest thing for the offense against Buffalo is to at least make third downs manageable, because if the phins have too many third and longs, then the Bills are just going to have a field day teeing off on Tannehill. The Dolphins must find a way to get yards on 1st and 2nd down to make their lives easier on third down. Lastly when the offense does enter the redzone they must score touchdowns. They can not keep settling for field goals.
On defense it is pretty simple, keep playing like they have been playing and make sure Orton does not have time to sit in the pocket all day. The defense has been playing top notch football, and there is no reason to think that they can not continue this trend at home with an electric Thursday night crowd behind them, while facing a mediocre offense. I believe that the defense will be able to channel the energy from their fans, and demonstrate on national television why they are one of the best overall defenses in the league.
On the best sportsbooks in the world the Dolphins opened at a -5 point favorite. The line has moved even higher to -6, and the action is slightly more favored towards the Dolphins. Then just this morning the line plummeted all the way down to -4. This was a definite sign of some smart money coming in on Buffalo at +6, and then the best sportsbooks in the world reacted by cutting the spread down to +4 for the Bills. I would say for those of you phins fans who do like to bet, then take the points on Buffalo, because until they figure out the riddle of beating the Bills there is no reason to not take the points when they are being offered. However, even though the smart bet may be to take the points, that does not mean that the Dolphins will not win the game by 3-4 points. This is going to be a defensive battle and I think the Dolphins can feed off the emotion from their fans and finally beat the bills by a score of 17 to 14.
The smart bet is taking the Bills plus the 4 points, but given this is a Thursday nite game, at home, the Fins have very good chance of winning by 4-7 points.
The x factor is the Fins’ injury at LT and makeshift OL line up vs the Bills injuries at RB.
Add it special teams and home field advantage on a week day nite game and it tilts favorably to the Fins by at least a FG.
Of course, anything can happen.