Dolphins Have Little Margin for Error
Phins can finish the season right starting with a win over the Packers
After the Miami Dolphins beat the Houston Texans on November 27th they were sporting an 8-3 record. However, since then we had a brutal 3 game road trip to San Francisco, LA, and Buffalo. Unfortunately, Miami went winless during that stretch. Sure, we knew those games were going to be tough, but getting at least one win should have been doable. Now the Dolphins are sitting at 8-6 and are clinging to the last wild card playoff spot with the Chargers holding the tie breaker for a wild card spot.
The good news is the Patriots lost in ridiculous fashion last week and the Jets lost Thursday, which give Miami a huge advantage to make the post season. Problem is the 7th seed looks like a trip to Arrowhead to play the Kansas City Chiefs.
This is why Miami needs to win the next three to give themselves a better chance to get a better seed and a better matchup, so they aren’t ‘one and done’ in the post season.
Phins MUST beat the Packers!!!
While the Dolphins get to play in the warm weather of Miami again, it’s not going to be an ‘easy W’ against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Even though these aren’t the same Packers of the last two years when Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs, they still are alive in the playoff hunt in the NFC and any team led by Rodgers is going to be dangerous. Rodgers is a wily veteran and even though he isn’t the type of QB to take off and run, he is very crafty in the pocket and can slither his way out of pressure to give himself extra time to find an open receiver down the field. Given how bad our pass defense is this is a legitimate concern. Add in the Packers have been very good against the pass allowing just 185.1 yards per game through the air, which is second best in the entire NFL, this could prove to be a very tough test for them.
The line movement on this game has been interesting on the best sportsbook provider with the line before the Dolphins playing their game in Buffalo as the Dolphins -4 against the Packers with more action coming in on the Dolphins. Then on Monday before the Packers played their game, the line jumped to -6, but was quickly hit with more action on the Packers. Then after the Packers won on Monday night the line dropped to -4.5 and is now sitting back at -4. There is still more action on the Dolphins but that’s a lot of line movement in just a couple days. It will be interesting to see where this line finally closes at, but either way this looks like it will come down to the last drive of the game to determine the winner.
Phins need do more than just make the postseason
The Dolphins have 81% to make the postseason and 17% to win the AFCE. If they can get 11 wins, they are a near lock for the postseason. So, it will take a collapse of epic proportions for the Dolphins to miss the postseason. But the Dolphins do more than be a blip on the radar because of their long-standing history of few post season appearances and epic failure in the few games they did play in.
Under Adam Gase in 2016 Miami made the postseason and were throttled and knocked out by the Steelers. In 2008, the Dolphins under Tony Sparano won the division and went to the post season only to be throttled by the Ravens and knocked out of the playoffs. The 2001 Season had Dave Wannstedt leading Miami to the post season to end up throttled by the Ravens and knocked out of the playoffs. You have to go all the way back to the 2000 postseason to get a post season win when Miami won the AFCE and beat the Colts in overtime… only to get throttled by the Raiders and knocked out of the playoffs in the Divisional Round.
So, while a postseason appearance is near certain–although not guaranteed, how well they perform isn’t. But three straight wins starting with Green Bay this week sure would bring fans a load of confidence that this year will end different than the last twenty two!
What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins news fans thoughts about our chances of getting a win at home against the Packers?
