Dolphins ‘Tepid’ Free Agency Demands Hot Draft
This Dolphins regime must have excellent drafts in 2019 and 2020 to survive
The Chris Grier and Brian Flores led Dolphins will succeed or be broken on the quality of their drafts…
… And that’s been their plan from the beginning.
But you know what is said of ‘the best-laid schemes of mice and men’ from Robert Burns’ poem “To a Mouse” …
… If you don’t, ask Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson, Mike Tannenbaum, Dave Wannstedt, Nick Saban, Joe Philbin, Adam Gase, Jeff Ireland, etc, etc, etc.
They’ll tell you plans don’t always come together as… well, err, planned.
Still, good plans have a much better chance of working out than poor ones.
‘Good’ plans are only good when they work
Phins fans are longtime voyeurs of watching poor plans fail. But, this time around, the plan is coherent, rational, and a proven winner in the modern era of NFL football–if enacted properly.
This is the key: Can this regime with all its talent evaluators pull off a B+ draft grade over the next two years to get this team from behind the 8-ball?
Because of a talent purge and the lack of Free Agent pursuit, Grier and Co. must nail the next two drafts to put them in the position to have real success in Years 3-5.
Good news: The plan makes sense. Grier brought in veteran talent evaluators Marvin Allen and Reggie McKenzie and hired former talent evaluator Brian Flores as the Head Coach. Grier loaded up on experience and similar ideology at this regime’s primary focus: player evaluation and acquisition.
Smart.
Yes, coaching is a close second pillar for this regime’s process… but the NFL is a game of thoroughbreds. It doesn’t take the wisdom from
pay per head bookie services to know that even the best coaches need a certain level of talent to succeed.
The pieces are in place to make Grier’s vision a reality. In just over four weeks, we’ll see if Grier’s ‘process’ matches his ability to evaluate and manipulate the draft.
This is what the Phins have to work with… at this point.
» Round 1: No. 13 overall
» Round 2: No. 48
» Round 3: No. 78
» Round 4: No. 116
» Round 5: No. 151
» Round 7: Nos. 233 (from Titans), 234 (from Steelers through Browns)
The Dolphins are neither especially hindered nor helped by the number of picks they have. While Miami has a slight edge in positioning, they are on the outside looking in on the Top 10 overall picks.
Still, teams much farther down the pecking order could be envious enough of the 13th Overall Pick to move up. Fingers crossed.
This ability to lure teams to fork over some picks to acquire the Dolphins 13th Pick is the only power card Miami has.
There’s is also
So, Grier should trade back unless an elite prospect on the Offensive Line or Quarterback falls to them. Unfortunately, none of the QB prospects are ‘can’t miss’ franchise players, OT Taylor won’t fall, and OT Dillard has warts.
This draft is considered deep quality Defensive Line propects and has some excellent Offensive line talent beyond Round 1. Miami could trade back 10 or more spots and still find a high-quality D-line talent like Jaylon Ferguson, Jeffery Simmons, or my ‘favs’ Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence.
With this level of talent available and extra picks ta’ boot to grab a talented O-linemen in the mid rounds, it seems a no-brainer… if the opportunity presents itself.
Even the best talent evaluators miss… that’s why maximizing the number of picks is crucial
The ‘small ball’ process of team building is exactly what the Patriots use. This pay now, play later draft style is crucial in supporting every other area of the process. Stacking picks and making good choices allows a regime to cut players a year early and get compensation. All of these facets in unison create Cap responsibility.
This is how a team can sustain success. Drafting well is just the lift off.
Miami can’t fudge even one area and expect this process to work–not with them so far in the hole… Unless they want to prove the oddsmakers right.
The type of team-building Miami appears to be running demands short-term suffering for rewards over the long haul.
Roman wasn’t built in a day and neither will this Miami Dolphins team. So far, Grier has made some tough and wise choices. But this was the easiest portion of the season. The Draft turns the dial up to eleven. A single trade could net the Dolphins 2-3 extra picks. Even if those picks come this year or in 2020… I say pull the trigger. Go Phins!!!
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Here are some interesting players from Texas A&M now coach by Jimbo fisher Florida State Former Head Coach. Looked out for Texas A&M in the Future: They have a Freshman Quarterback who played against Clemson this season passed 2018, Out of all Quarterbacks who played against Clemson, I thought he had the best game.His projected draft is 2021 and may come out early 2020 draft. Not taking anything from Tua will not be the only show look for Tua Tagovailoa.,Trevor Lawrence Clemson,Kellen Mond Texas A&M to be the top discussion in college football 2019 season.
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3rd Rounder:
Texas A&M OL vs. Clemson (2018)
https://youtu.be/f-eUgZD0xZo
Erik McCoy (C #64 https://youtu.be/0hokZmth-oI
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Projected draft year: 2021 He could come out 2020
Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond || Week 2 Highlights vs. Clemson
https://youtu.be/ixppf6AxOsk
#1 Alabama vs. #22 Texas A&M Full Game Highlights | College Football Week 4
https://youtu.be/uPwNOaaU3J0
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4th rounder or 5th rounder
Trayveon Williams—RB—-3rd Round —-Freshman Highlights
https://youtu.be/BHA6zQapmo0
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Admin
Finley is okay. But one dimensional. Stidham is being overlooked. He makes every analysis top 5 to 10 Quarterbacks. When you have time try to view him at Baylor. He shows those intangibles that the scouts claim they are looking for. Meaning! He is a dual threat QB who the Dolphins have never had before. Our Quarterbacks have been 123 on the bench, He is a warrior on the field I would not draft Finley over Stidham. He will not lay down playing against The Patriots ETC. I’m no authority on talent just think he is what we need now.
Watch “Jarrett Stidham Passes” on YouTube
https://youtu.be/UrMZQCzGBN0
Tracking every trade in the 2018 NFL
draftttp://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23324716/2018-nfl-draft-trade-tracker-every-move-all-32-te990 NFL Draft
* Traded the No. 15 pick, a third-round pick (No. 79) and a fifth-round pick (No. 152) to Raiders for the No. 10 pick (drafted QB Josh Rosen).
5 spots back to get a 3rd and 5th… the 5th allowed them to pull in Maurice Hurst, DT… Big win.
Wow!
Admin this draft is very important. Time for the Fins Management to put on their thinking Caps? Meaning this cannot be a mediocre draft for the Dolphins. Let’s be real the top 2 quarterbacks will be off the board early and Drew Lock is going to Denver? Just like Denver drafted Jay Cutler 1st round picked 11th played there for 3 years and 8 seasons with the Bears.
That being said! time to trade back. A good trade back is to trade back twice in the 1st round. twice in the second round. This draft should be about how many 3rd,4th and 5th rounds we can picked up.
Basically with the Tannehill trade we gave up a sixth round and paid 5 million dollars for a 4th round pick in 2020? What’s the going rate for a 4th round draft picked? Around $650,000 a year
https://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_salary_of_a_fourth-round_NFL_draft_pick
Highly likely… Still, Elway might be trying to load up for Flacco. I think he might be a little gun shy on drafting QBs. I Lock worries me a bit though… so it could be for the best if Elway grabs him… low comp % is a big red flag.
Yeap!
I came across some interesting data pertaining to the 1989 & 1990 draft. Looking back the Miami Dolphins were within reached of these Hall of Famed players.
1989 Drafted
1st picked-Troy Aikman (Dallas Cowboys)
3rd picked- Barry Sanders ( Detroit)
4th picked- Derrick Thomas (Chief’s)
5th Picked- Deon Sanders (Atlanta)
20th Picked Steve Atewater (Denver)
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9th picked: Sammy Smith FSU (Miami Dolphins)
There were 21 Pro Bowler out of 312 drafted
Pro Bowler Round 10 Carlton Haselrig picked 263rd by Pittsburgh Steelers
Meaning: Very important to select the best players in the round.
1990 Miami Dolphins drafted
5th Picked: Junior Seau Linebacker, San Diego Chargers ( Hall of Fame)
9th Picked: Richmond Webb a Tackle made the Pro Bowl
17th Picked: Emmitt Smith Dallas Cowboys hall of Famed)
The Sunday (3/24/2019) Sun Sentinel ran an Omar Kelly article that evaluated who is left on the Dolphin Roster – for now. More are predicted to go. David Hyde’s column, in the same day’s Sun Sentinel, explains the virtues of accepting the tanked season, forthcoming. It shows just how far down into the abyss a bad owner can sink a once-proud franchise.
Kelly’s analysis provides the impression that our wide receiver corps, if healthy, could be adequate. He lists about 5 Tight Ends and predicts that we will find a keeper. He says we only have 1 keeper on the O-line. That would be Laremy Tunsil. He will of course kill at least one drive every game by committing a stupid penalty at exactly the wrong time.
Then he moves over to the defense and asserts that the Dolphins will switch to a 3-4 defense. Kelly goes on to list personnel. His analysis shows that we have no 3-4 type DL on the roster. We have no outstanding linebackers and a secondary that is going to have to play their best safety at cornerback to be rated above mediocre. We have no nose tackle and Def. Tackles best suited for 4-3 defensive ends. Maybe Kiko Alonso could start on some other teams but outside of him Jerome Baker is our only returning hope of an improved linebacker. Baker is probably more suited to the 4-3 role than a dominant 4-3 linebacker.
Having repeated this tanked roster’s strong points we look to the draft 7 picks with the last two coming in the 7th round. Kelly says we are taking a Quarterback with number 1-13. That leaves five picks total to do what? snag a starting DL or two. Do we take best athlete left on the board? Do we try to trade down for more late round picks? It seems to me that no one will give up much to trade up into the 13th pick. A package deal Robert Quinn is possible but no one is going to give you a higher first round pick for that package deal. Maybe you throw in Kenyan Drake or Mike Gesicki or both? But who do you take? Is there a sure fire QB in this or even next year’s draft?
I think this year’s best draft would be to just take the best athlete left on the board on a need based priority. I will go back to the Ted Ginn Junior pick as an example. This was another bad roster year. We needed a QB and we needed a left tackle badly. We passed on Brady Quinn and took Ginn. Three players later, the 49ers took Joe Staley from Central Michigan. He was my pick! He ends up being a perennial Pro Bowler. If the Dolphins had taken Joe, we would not have needed Jake Long and we could have drafted Matt Ryan. Sometimes, your big success comes from lots of smaller successes.
Again, I urge everyone to avoid purchasing any Dolphin tickets. Watch them on TV. Root for them if you’re into heartbreak. DO NOT give Steven Ross your money. You can eat better food and not have to fight traffic by staying at home!
Sorry for the late reply was searching for my copy of the article… found I had it archived, but never read it.
“He says we only have 1 keeper on the O-line. That would be Laremy Tunsil. He will, of course, kill at least one drive every game by committing a stupid penalty at exactly the wrong time.”
He didn’t really say that. There a was a little bit of Van mixed in there ;). I disagree, but I could be wrong.
I also disagree that there will be a tank. I think we could have about the same amount of wins this year as the last. I think the only difference, if this staff is good, is the highs and low. IF this staff is good, I expect few, if any, miracle wins. I expect less collapses. Less boneheaded plays and more fight in them on defense. I see the scheme change alone getting a boost on D. Pats loveeeeee the big nickel… this will be a good thing considering the Dolphins roster. Wide 9 was a terrible scheme for the Dolphins. I can see Miami getting 5-8 wins in 2019… at this point.
“His analysis shows that we have no 3-4 type DL on the roster. ” Yeah, I wrote on that a little while back… I think I was wrong in the sense that I was a bit rigid in the definition. It will be a 3-4ish D. The term is a little pigeonholed. 3-4 hybrid like we had under Nolan might be more apt.
“I think this year’s best draft would be to just take the best athlete left on the board on a need based priority.” I agree, but at 13# they could trade back and get an excellent DT… so many good ones in this 1st Round. Don’t see a great T making it to 13 or QB. This draft is expected to be very deep on O & D linemen… extra pick could be nice. But if a stud at whatever position falls to #13 then by all means, we should take him. I’m still studying the draft, so I’m not fully boned up yet… Steve is really good at the draft.
Ginn was a poor pick with Willis and Staley there… man, we’ve been terrible at the draft for a long time.
Still, I think we’ve had poor coaching and FO for so long we’ve forgot a bit on what a good crew can do. Not saying these guy are it… but if they are, 2019 should surprise us a bit.
Scenario: Trading back we Add Quarterback.
Round 1: Miami 13th picked trade back for Dexter Lawrence, DT,Clemson
Round 2: Miami Greg Little (Ole Miss LT) https://youtu.be/KqgFJ6lhe0c https:
Round 3: Miami Austin Bryant, DE, Clemson https://youtu.be/0YU8_Xp8r04
Round 4: Miami Lil’Jordan Humphrey*, WR, Texas https://youtu.be/pUSzbsztJG4
Round 5: Miami LB TJ Edwards, Wisconsin https://youtu.be/tqnVAfiMofI
Round 6: Miami CB Trayvon Mullen, Clemson https://youtu.be/s7oG9IXSDAY
Round 7: Miami Pittsburgh* Pitt RB Qadree Ollison Top Plays 2018 https://youtu.be/-hDCvHad2OU
I’d want at least two O-linemen this draft. One exterior and one interior. We really need a LG the most. I’m fine with Davis playing RT.
Scenario:
Trade back to late teens then trade back into the twenties and select
Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
or
Greg Little Offensive Tackles Ole Miss
2nd Round 33- 64
Trade back out of picked 42nd to achieve more picks. Select:
1. Ryan Finley Quarterback North Carolina State
2. D’Andre Walker Linebacker Georgia
3. Elgton Jenkins Center/Guard Mississippi State
3rd round: 65 to 102nd
1 Tre Lamar, Linebacker Clemson
2. Austin Bryant
4th Round:
Jarrett Stidham QB Auburn
Treyveon Williams Running Back
Jalen Jelks (4-3) DE Oregon
Had to out Stidham in there 🙂
This is why if possible, we need to trade back in rounds one and two (Top Two QB will not be there)!
This is what the Phins have to work with… at this point.
» Round 1: No. 13 overall Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
» Round 2: No. 48 Ryan Finley Quarterback N.C State
» Round 3: No. 78 Austin Bryant Clemson
» Round 4: No. 116 Jarrett Stidham Quarterback Auburn
» Round 5: No. 151 Treyveon Williams
» Round 7: Nos. 233 (from Titans), 234 (from Steelers through Browns) * Pitt RB Qadree Ollison
Why QB Finley in the second round I would still take Jarrett Stidham over Finley in the 4th round. But we should draft two Quarterbacks.
Ryan Finley, QB, N.C. State
https://youtu.be/kvM6rk-43nw
Finley vs Clemson: https://youtu.be/YSR-j11bas8
Finley Film Study: https://youtu.be/y0KaP1nT37A
https://youtu.be/UE2smtprpto: Finley was thought to be the most NFL ready
You sold me on Finley… this his senior bowl interview checks all the boxes:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlMkIiou0Aw
Just watched the Clemson tape… SOLD! Pat use tons of comebacks and he has solid timing on them… Fin trained by Fitz… make it happen. Like him better than Grier.
Admin!
I agree 100%! If the Fins see i.e. the Top two Quarterbacks are off the board by 9th picked. They should seek A trade ASAP! Back into the twenty’s to obtain more picks. Then take it a step further to trade back into the second round for more picks. I would go as far to say trade back twice in the 1st round.
This would enable the Fins to obtained possible 3 extra picks in the 3rd & 4th round and some picks in the 2020 draft. Do it!
We should stay away from the 7th round extra picks. When do they actually make the team?
I want them to get one of those DLs I mentioned… I don’t disagree with your idea… 7ths aren’t big chips for sure… We’ve pulled that S a few years back and he’ starting now for KC and we pulled in our kicker… but the reality is they are the lowest chips…