Dolphins ‘Tepid’ Free Agency Demands Hot Draft

M.J.

6 years ago

This Dolphins regime must have excellent drafts in 2019 and 2020 to survive

Dolphins must at least match last year’s draft grade

The Chris Grier and Brian Flores led Dolphins will succeed or be broken on the quality of their drafts…

… And that’s been their plan from the beginning.

But you know what is said of ‘the best-laid schemes of mice and men’ from Robert Burns’ poem “To a Mouse” …

… If you don’t, ask Bill Parcells, Jimmy Johnson, Mike Tannenbaum, Dave Wannstedt, Nick Saban, Joe Philbin, Adam Gase, Jeff Ireland, etc, etc, etc.

They’ll tell you plans don’t always come together as… well, err, planned.

Still, good plans have a much better chance of working out than poor ones.

‘Good’ plans are only good when they work

Phins fans are longtime voyeurs of watching poor plans fail. But, this time around, the plan is coherent, rational, and a proven winner in the modern era of NFL football–if enacted properly.

This is the key: Can this regime with all its talent evaluators pull off a B+ draft grade over the next two years to get this team from behind the 8-ball?

Because of a talent purge and the lack of Free Agent pursuit, Grier and Co. must nail the next two drafts to put them in the position to have real success in Years 3-5.

Good news: The plan makes sense. Grier brought in veteran talent evaluators Marvin Allen and Reggie McKenzie and hired former talent evaluator Brian Flores as the Head Coach. Grier loaded up on experience and similar ideology at this regime’s primary focus: player evaluation and acquisition.

Smart.

Yes, coaching is a close second pillar for this regime’s process… but the NFL is a game of thoroughbreds. It doesn’t take the wisdom from
pay per head bookie services to know that even the best coaches need a certain level of talent to succeed.

The pieces are in place to make Grier’s vision a reality. In just over four weeks, we’ll see if Grier’s ‘process’ matches his ability to evaluate and manipulate the draft.

This is what the Phins have to work with… at this point.

» Round 1: No. 13 overall
» Round 2: No. 48
» Round 3: No. 78
» Round 4: No. 116
» Round 5: No. 151
» Round 7: Nos. 233 (from Titans), 234 (from Steelers through Browns)

The Dolphins are neither especially hindered nor helped by the number of picks they have. While Miami has a slight edge in positioning, they are on the outside looking in on the Top 10 overall picks.

Still, teams much farther down the pecking order could be envious enough of the 13th Overall Pick to move up. Fingers crossed.

This ability to lure teams to fork over some picks to acquire the Dolphins 13th Pick is the only power card Miami has.

There’s is also Howard… but, it’s appearing more and more likely that he’ll get his extension.

So, Grier should trade back unless an elite prospect on the Offensive Line or Quarterback falls to them. Unfortunately, none of the QB prospects are ‘can’t miss’ franchise players, OT Taylor won’t fall, and OT Dillard has warts.

This draft is considered deep quality Defensive Line propects and has some excellent Offensive line talent beyond Round 1. Miami could trade back 10 or more spots and still find a high-quality D-line talent like Jaylon Ferguson, Jeffery Simmons, or my ‘favs’ Christian Wilkins and Dexter Lawrence.

With this level of talent available and extra picks ta’ boot to grab a talented O-linemen in the mid rounds, it seems a no-brainer… if the opportunity presents itself.

Even the best talent evaluators miss… that’s why maximizing the number of picks is crucial

The ‘small ball’ process of team building is exactly what the Patriots use. This pay now, play later draft style is crucial in supporting every other area of the process. Stacking picks and making good choices allows a regime to cut players a year early and get compensation. All of these facets in unison create Cap responsibility.

This is how a team can sustain success. Drafting well is just the lift off.

Miami can’t fudge even one area and expect this process to work–not with them so far in the hole… Unless they want to prove the oddsmakers right.

The type of team-building Miami appears to be running demands short-term suffering for rewards over the long haul.

Roman wasn’t built in a day and neither will this Miami Dolphins team. So far, Grier has made some tough and wise choices. But this was the easiest portion of the season. The Draft turns the dial up to eleven. A single trade could net the Dolphins 2-3 extra picks. Even if those picks come this year or in 2020… I say pull the trigger. Go Phins!!!

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