Odds change, and it’s early, but “Vegas” isn’t high on Dolphins success.
Hopefully, the Odds are still succumbing to the memory of Philbust.
Just over a month ago, the numbers were released on the early odds for teams to win the Super Bowl, each Conference, Division, and each team’s over/under for Regular Season Wins.
As expected, the sports books are not giving the Dolphins much of a chance this upcoming season. However, the year before, the Dolphins were a trendy sleeper pick to win the AFC East, and we all know how that turned out. So, just because the odds are predicting one thing, it’s not a certified outcome.
In regards to the Dolphins chances of winning the upcoming Super Bowl, the Dolphins are ranked very close to the bottom of the league, with only a few teams having worse odds then the Dolphins current 60 to 1 odds. Only the 49ers, Browns, Chargers, Eagles, Lions, and Titans have worse odds to win the Super Bowl. While I’m not blinded enough by my fandom to think the Dolphins have a legitimate shot to win the Super Bowl, I do think Miami has better chances over a couple of teams ahead of them.
In terms of winning the AFC Conference, the best sportsbooks in the world have the Dolphins at 30 to 1 odds. Only the Browns and the Titans have worse predicted odds. Again, I obviously think Miami is a long shot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but I also don’t think that they are going to be the third worst team in the entire AFC Conference. Of course I, like the odds makers, have been wrong before – but on this one I am not: I hope.
For those who are interested, and like me (until this article) are somewhat uninformed about how the “odds” in betting, I’ll use the AFCE Division demonstrate. The New England Patriots are the clear favorites to win at -200, which means you would need to risk $200 to win $100. Whereas the Dolphins have the worst odds of the four AFC East teams at +1200, which means if you bet $100 for them to win the division you would win $1200. The Jets and the Bills are both +550, which means if someone bets $100 they would win $550.
I think the Dolphins winning the division will take a lot of breaks, but I also think they won’t end up last in the division, again. Of the other 3 teams, I believe that the Jets seem to be the weakest of the bunch, and simply on QB play alone Miami should finish with a better record.
The Dolphins Regular Season win total is set at 7, which means the odds makers are not expecting the Dolphins to win more than 7 games. Considering that the Dolphins have one of the toughest opening schedules in the league, there is no mystery why many people are not expecting much from the Dolphins. But, the Dolphins usually play better against better teams, so maybe the harder schedule will carry a silver lining and end up helping them to be a better overall team (lucky Dan Marino card clutched tightly as I one-hand-type the sentence).
The Dolphins do have a lot of young talent on their roster, so if they get even a little lucky in the health department, added to better coaching, Miami will come away with some surprise victories and defy the odds – maybe not for the Super Bowl and conference, but at least for the win totals and the division. It’s still the off season, so hope is eternal – I can’t wait to find out if that hope materializes. Go Fins!!!