Early Quarterback Run Gives Miami BEST Chance Hit At #11

1st Rd Quarterback picks CAN be big hits… but more often than not, they are big misses

A Quarterback falling to #11 could be great trade bait, but does Miami have the guts to pull it off?

Judgment day is quickly approaching for the Adam Gase era

…And whether he gets a new lease on life or is fed to the lions will depend heavily on the regime’s performance in the upcoming 2018 NFL draft.

Big and exciting stuff is just days away!

It’s anyone’s guess as to what Miami will actually do with their 1st Round Pick. Phinsnews has a couple of opinions going around amongst its writers… same with every fan and every guru. But that’s all they really are, opinions.

The one thing we do know for sure: Miami’s choices will be determined by the teams ahead of them.

Most pay per head sportsbook sites are betting that Miami can find a very good player with the 11th overall pick no matter what…

…But the diversity of their choices will be much greater if 4 QBs go in the Top 10.  Also, while some rightly say that a QB falling to #11 would be great trade bait, you get the feeling that the fear of a PR backlash by passing on “the next Marino” might force them to take a QB… and that could end up a disaster.

Gase knows he must win now… would a QB pick help or hurt that cause?

This isn’t to say Miami couldn’t use an infusion of QB talent. They can. And this isn’t about Ryan Tannehill being this or that. That’s a whole other discussion…

…But the reality is, picking an elite QB is as easy as herding cats. Miami is far more likely to end up with a QB that’s either equal to what they have or worse. The next Marino… or even Marino ultralight, is far less likely.

I’m not saying that all these QBs will be a bust, but history says that most likely only 1 or 2 will have good careers. Could this regime survive a bust QB #11? And do you like Miami’s luck in picking the right one?

So the best chance that the Dolphins have of landing a quality player is by taking a non-QB position… And maybe a run on QBs is the best chance for that to happen?

Yes, nothing is guaranteed. And if Grier and Gase pick an excellent QB it would turbocharge this regime for sure. But right now, this team needs as many hits in this draft as possible. Fortune favors the bold, but that road is littered with the graves of those who’ve failed.

Miami needs to take a QB every year, but it doesn’t have to be in Round 1

And even if you don’t like this regime, remember if the 2018 Season is a flop, you’re looking at another 2-3 of retooling, redesigning the system, and finding the right staff and personnel. And we Phin Fans should know better than most, the next regime could very well be worse… and then it could 5-7 years before this franchise becomes relevant–at the very least.

So in the best interest of fun and good times on Sundays, this regime needs to shock the world and win… starting with this draft and pick #11.

Certainly, at least two QBs will go in the Top 10: The Browns and Jets are near 100% locks to grab a passer… and I can’t imagine the Bills sitting at #12, giving Miami 1st crack at 2 of the ‘Top 4’ Qbs. So they’ll likely trade up for a Quarterback.

Will the Broncos pass on a QB? Case Keenum proved during last season that he can be a productive Quarterback when put in the right system and right situation. However he was a bit shaky in the playoffs, so it’s hard to see him as an elite QB that can carry a team on his back to the Super Bowl. The good thing for him is that the Broncos have a very good defense. So GM John Elway, with the option to trade as well as grab a non-QB player, is a wildcard.

Actually losing out on a QB might give Miami an unexpected shot at top talent

Last: And what are the New York Giants are going to do with the number 2 pick in the draft? They, like the Broncos, are a real mystery. Eli Manning is in the twilight of his career, so do they invest in a Quarterback of the future and give him a year or two to learn from future Hall of Famer? They might try to win now and trade out of the spot or even grab a top talent to help Eli. Yet, you’d figure if they were going to trade out they’d of done so with the Jets and received three 2nd Rd Picks just move to move from #2 to #6.

Darnold, Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, and one more unnamed QB to the Jets are near locks to be gone by #11. Now add two more QBs being taken and that leaves Miami with at least two of these to choose from: Edmunds, Smith, Ward, Fitzpatrick, and James. Of course,  this doesn’t include the one headscratcher that always pops up in the Top 10 to give Miami a better selection.

Sounds nice to me!

Yeah, Miami could still screw it up–but let’s stay upbeat. Why not… least till after the first round. Go Phins!!!

24 comments

  • Steve

    Either way Austin Allen is a free B just bring to camp.

  • Steve

    Dunner & Admin

    Texas Tech QB Nic Shimonek’s Long Journey to Start for the Red Raiders
    https://youtu.be/u3qJCjyiP9w

    FB Feature: What fuels fifth-year QB Nic Shimonek
    https://youtu.be/80dQWBpJUjM

    Nic Shimonek’s full 2018 NFL Scouting Combine workout
    https://youtu.be/lAYk2R0SVgs
    https://youtu.be/6HqiKWNmlZM

    • admin

      You know Steve as I’m doing research on Vander Esch I’m doing a comparision with Evans… I dismissed him a bit too much do to injury concerns (We have too many of them as is) But I relly am starting to change my mind on his value at SAM. Okay, Minkah, Edmunds, Vea or a HARD TRADE back is my hope… def. a bit on the fence between Esch and Evans… where woud you lean? I do hope Rosen flls to #11 and we trade him… Thnks so much for the inspiration to study the prospects with more zel thn I usuallly do… II have learned a lot… and had fun…

      • Steve

        Here is the value: If we want OLB Esch is the man by trading back

        27 Leighton Vander Esch Boise St. Jr OLB 1 6-4 256
        31 Dorian O’Daniel Clemson Sr OLB 2 6-1 215
        48 Darius Leonard South Carolina State Jr OLB 3 6-2 213
        60 Malik Jefferson Texas Jr OLB 4 6-3 236
        76 Skai Moore South Carolina Sr OLB 5 6-2 221
        79 Uchenna Nwosu USC Sr OLB 6 6-3 251
        90 Fred Warner BYU Sr OLB 7 6-3 227

        If we want ILB here is the value

        25 Tremaine Edmunds Virginia Tech Jr ILB 2 6-5 253
        50 Rashaan Evans Alabama Sr ILB 3 6-3 234
        97 Oren Burks Vanderbilt Jr ILB 4 6-3 233
        120 Jason Cabinda Penn St. Sr ILB 5 6-1 234
        138 Micah Kiser Virginia Sr ILB 6 6-2 240
        170 Christian Sam Arizona St. Jr ILB 7 6-2 237
        174 Josey Jewell Iowa Sr ILB 8 6-1 235
        180 Shaun Dion Hamilton Alabama Sr ILB 9 6-0 233
        199 Joel Iyiegbuniwe W. Kentucky Jr ILB 10 6-1 230
        222 Jack Cichy Wisconsin Sr ILB 11 6-2 234
        227 Kenny Young UCLA Sr ILB 12 6-1 226

        The Best route is the Take OLB Esch late 1st round and draft Josey Jewell in the 5 or 6th round that we get for trading back.

  • Steve

    Why so High on these three quarterbacks. Each quarterbacks brings a different package to the Dolphins, they can learn and take charge without disappointment, I would pay to see them play, These three can carry a team, they have played against the best college defenses in the country. Time to changed the culture of uncertainty.

    3rd rounder consideration
    Luke Falk QB Solid Day two QB
    https://youtu.be/c8gD1BqwbT0

    Nic is my number one picked out of these quarterbacks in the draft. Bold statement Yes!
    Nic Shimonek: We’re Here to Win Games, Not Compete With People
    https://youtu.be/84S2I9Ve238
    NSD 2017: Nic Shimonek
    https://youtu.be/9uHRs4sWNxI
    https://youtu.be/cDnVzG-ikI8

    Admin bringing aboard Austin Allen who may not get drafted but I believed he’s similar to Drew Breeze
    https://youtu.be/EHKTna3VadE

  • Steve

    Sorry to hear about Lemmus having a slow recovery. He will bounce back hopefully real soon. Lemus we have forgotten about the offensive line.

    Trade back to picked 23 they both will be there! Plus more picks.

    Vander Esch and Rashaan Evans would be a nice picked in the later 1st round for me, Which Means more draft picks. i.e maybe an extra second round, But for sure extra 3rd,4th,5th,6th, and more.

    https://www.lockedonsteelers.com/steelers/film-study-ilb-prospects-leighton-vander-esch-and-rashaan-evans/

    We are trying to draft nine players below the number 121st picked and 4 players in the 5th – 7th round or more picks in this draft not 3 picks.

    Trading back to the twenties will give us 5 more players.

    • Steve

      Lemmus We have not forgotten about the offensive line.

    • admin

      Honestly, after reading a bunch of stuff over the last couple of days, I see Smith as the most likey pick… trading back would be preferred to be to get Esch. I think we will def regret missing on Vea. I see him losing 10 pounds and being an elite interior player both in run D pass rush. But Smith spooks me. He just is so terrible in shedding and doesn’t even try. But I really see him as being available more than any of the other tops at 11. Did you see they were looking at Fred Warner? Really like what I’m seeing so far, but it’s only limited. I think this kid could end up a Quality hybrid / LB… very interesting. The OL will be the maker of big surprises this season… so many fans just don’t get the huge value on both sides of the ball that this OL will bring… with reasonable amount of health.

      • Steve

        I never heard of Fred Warner but I like what I see of him. He zero’s in on the ball, good speed and can tackle.

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6BhkhH3WP9w

      • Steve

        Just in case we have forgotten just how bad we are against the big boys.

        Watch “Dolphins vs. Ravens | N
        https://youtu.be/GYI9GFPoiU8

        Watch “Dolphins vs. Ravens | N

        https://youtu.be/7lWUY_HP3d8

        • Steve

          Admin and Dol-Fans

          The only way to change these results is to the change the Culture. History shows that we have beaten the Ravens once since October 2008.

          Date Team Opponent H/A Stadium Result Attend
          10/26/2017 Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins H M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, MD) W 40-0 70,408
          12/04/2016 Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins H M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, MD) W 38-6 70,916
          12/06/2015 Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins A Sun Life Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL) L 15-13 64,519
          12/07/2014 Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins A Sun Life Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL) W 28-13 70,244
          10/06/2013 Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins A Sun Life Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL) W 26-23 68,342
          11/07/2010 Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins H M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore, MD) W 26-10 71,305
          01/04/2009 * Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins A Dolphin Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL) W 27-9 74,240
          10/19/2008 Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins A Dolphin Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL) W 27-13 64,972

          I don’t think this stuff is rocket science if an organization is serious about winning.

    • admin

      Man, now I’m fully in your camp, I’m hoping we trade back in big way and get Vander Esch…

      • Dunner

        The more I’ve/listened, I am starting to feel this is Miami’s desire.

        • admin

          I’m studying him now… he is a lot like Smith… both are weak at taking on blocks. Smith refuses to and is small, Vander Esch tries, is large but has poor technique. Smith is best as a WLB to avoid his weakness. Vander Esch still has room to grow and his tech can and will improve… but he will be helped sliding out to SLB as he can use his speed and tendency to use his shoulder to set the edge. Smith bothers me greatly. I really, really don’t want him. Not because he sucks, he just will be so dependent on the rest of the team to reach his potential. Edmunds would be great and I’d even like him more than Vea… though I’ll pine for Vea if he plays elsewhere. Vander Esch would even better than Evans as Evans is a Mike and McMillian is best as Mike. Smith will take away Anthony’s chance at WLLB because WLB is where is best and WLB is the only spot Smith can play. Anthony, McMillian and Edmunds or on a lesser note Vander Esch at SLB would be terrific. Man I hope I’m as pumped after the 1st round as I am before the 1st round.

    • Dunner

      Dilly Dilly

  • Dunner

    Fellas (Steve/Admin and comp.),
    I would love to read and post, read and respond all day from now till next week. This is my busy time of year. So I have to hit and miss.
    I love reading your guys comments, insight, opinions.
    Admin, still no Lemmus? Tell him I’m back and over my rant, lol! Hope he is recovering well, hope he is able to watch the draft this week.

    Perfect article that makes perfect sense. However; Miami hasn’t done what makes perfect sense in the last decade. Even though, this regime seems to have a plan and they carry out said plan. Some unforeseen circumstances, some bad luck, some bad contract/FA contracts have severely slowed the process. Again, I believe this was all going down last off season, but, Miami made the playoffs, so it wouldn’t have went over well with the fan base.

    I did see the one 7 round Mock draft done by CBS sports that includes 8 professional analysts, they do 1 each year and it is pretty decent. Each representing 4 different teams. It included trades throughout such as the Bills trading up to pick #4 and grabbing Mayfield (yea). Thus having 4 QBs going in the top 4. The 4 picks prior to ours at 11 is as follow: James to Tampa, Nelson to Chi., Fitz to 49ers, and Smith to the Raid., thus leaving us with Edmunds and that was the pick. Edmunds at 11. Browns take a OT after us and Vea goes to the Skins 2 picks after ours. Good start, right?
    In round 2 Miami picks DT Taven Bryan. Jesse Bates was the only 1 of top 4 FS’s left on board, DT was the move in this case. Nice 2 round start, right?
    Round three gets interesting, Miami trades up into round 2, giving up their 3rd (73) and a 4th (123) round pick with the Steelers for 2nd rounder (60). A run on the TEs had started with both Hurst and Goedert going back to back a few picks prior to the 60th slot. Miami takes TE Mike Gesicki. Love it, however; Thomas and Andrews (my personal favorite) were still on the board, both which would have been there in third for Miami. I like that they were aggressive and secured one of the top 4 TEs. Now thats a great start, right?
    Round 4 (141) Miami grabs QB Luke Falk
    Round 6 (209) Miami gets RB Darrel Williams
    Round 7 WR JavonWims and (229) C/G Sean Welsh

    I know it is a mock, and it could be the furthest from the actual, but these are “professionals” and may be worth a little bit.

    If this were to hold true Miami, I would be ecstatic. Especially the first 3 rounds..

    3 days 11 hours away, yes I’m a NFL nerd and I will be watching the draft in its entirety, at least the first 3 rounds live, then maybe DVR. Can’t miss my boys AAU tourney

    • admin

      Talked to Lemmus the other day. He’s still screwed up the bit and the staph infection that followed rocked his world… and he’s slowly gaining strength. Yeah, I’d like that draft a lot… I’d hope for less trade ups though–but you’ve gotta’ give to get I guess. Edmunds would probably take a year to develop in his run d, but out of the shoot he’d be the nickel and he’d give fits to TE’s in man. He’s pretty good in Zone cover. I’d love to see him and Anthony. Man Edmunds seems to be a big win… really need to do more study on him… just didn’t think he’d reach us. Falk in the 4th would be great… I want to see one every year. Most Qb’s will likely not pan out, but eventually, we’d have a nice stable. My man crush on Vea has taken a small hit with the talk he needs motivation and weight control will be an issue… not sure if it’s true, but you can’t dismiss it. His play was pretty relentless from what I saw… he would pursue up and down the field. The weight thing, I don’t know. They’d better get some DT help though… Titans are week 1, and at this point, with that OL and RB, I’m concerned they will beat this D into the ground with body blows… This was Jimmy’s and he loves Lamar… not so much the others, but I’m sort of intrigued by Mayfield. I doubt he drops, but I’d be okay if they took him… worried, but okay. Also, Steve talked about CB’s the other day and I’m now wondering if there’s good wisdom in getting a top CB that’s available. Take it slow brother… and be well.

      • Dunner

        I too like Mayfield, love his passion, while I also believe he would be that vocal leader Miami has missed sense Marino.
        Can’t go wrong w Vea
        The more I have read today, I’m starting to feel a trade back and Vander Esch would be the pick.

        Not long now, amazing what the draft has become.

        • admin

          I agree felt the same thing after today’s read… still very concerned with DT though. Phillip could be a monster and if that’s the case we are fine… just not trusting him to be a full-time monster. Then you worry about a single injury.