1st Rd Quarterback picks CAN be big hits… but more often than not, they are big misses
A Quarterback falling to #11 could be great trade bait, but does Miami have the guts to pull it off?
Judgment day is quickly approaching for the Adam Gase era…
…And whether he gets a new lease on life or is fed to the lions will depend heavily on the regime’s performance in the upcoming 2018 NFL draft.
Big and exciting stuff is just days away!
It’s anyone’s guess as to what Miami will actually do with their 1st Round Pick. Phinsnews has a couple of opinions going around amongst its writers… same with every fan and every guru. But that’s all they really are, opinions.
The one thing we do know for sure: Miami’s choices will be determined by the teams ahead of them.
Most pay per head sportsbook sites are betting that Miami can find a very good player with the 11th overall pick no matter what…
…But the diversity of their choices will be much greater if 4 QBs go in the Top 10. Also, while some rightly say that a QB falling to #11 would be great trade bait, you get the feeling that the fear of a PR backlash by passing on “the next Marino” might force them to take a QB… and that could end up a disaster.
Gase knows he must win now… would a QB pick help or hurt that cause?
This isn’t to say Miami couldn’t use an infusion of QB talent. They can. And this isn’t about Ryan Tannehill being this or that. That’s a whole other discussion…
…But the reality is, picking an elite QB is as easy as herding cats. Miami is far more likely to end up with a QB that’s either equal to what they have or worse. The next Marino… or even Marino ultralight, is far less likely.
I’m not saying that all these QBs will be a bust, but history says that most likely only 1 or 2 will have good careers. Could this regime survive a bust QB #11? And do you like Miami’s luck in picking the right one?
So the best chance that the Dolphins have of landing a quality player is by taking a non-QB position… And maybe a run on QBs is the best chance for that to happen?
Yes, nothing is guaranteed. And if Grier and Gase pick an excellent QB it would turbocharge this regime for sure. But right now, this team needs as many hits in this draft as possible. Fortune favors the bold, but that road is littered with the graves of those who’ve failed.
Miami needs to take a QB every year, but it doesn’t have to be in Round 1
And even if you don’t like this regime, remember if the 2018 Season is a flop, you’re looking at another 2-3 of retooling, redesigning the system, and finding the right staff and personnel. And we Phin Fans should know better than most, the next regime could very well be worse… and then it could 5-7 years before this franchise becomes relevant–at the very least.
So in the best interest of fun and good times on Sundays, this regime needs to shock the world and win… starting with this draft and pick #11.
Certainly, at least two QBs will go in the Top 10: The Browns and Jets are near 100% locks to grab a passer… and I can’t imagine the Bills sitting at #12, giving Miami 1st crack at 2 of the ‘Top 4’ Qbs. So they’ll likely trade up for a Quarterback.
Will the Broncos pass on a QB? Case Keenum proved during last season that he can be a productive Quarterback when put in the right system and right situation. However he was a bit shaky in the playoffs, so it’s hard to see him as an elite QB that can carry a team on his back to the Super Bowl. The good thing for him is that the Broncos have a very good defense. So GM John Elway, with the option to trade as well as grab a non-QB player, is a wildcard.
Actually losing out on a QB might give Miami an unexpected shot at top talent
Last: And what are the New York Giants are going to do with the number 2 pick in the draft? They, like the Broncos, are a real mystery. Eli Manning is in the twilight of his career, so do they invest in a Quarterback of the future and give him a year or two to learn from future Hall of Famer? They might try to win now and trade out of the spot or even grab a top talent to help Eli. Yet, you’d figure if they were going to trade out they’d of done so with the Jets and received three 2nd Rd Picks just move to move from #2 to #6.
Darnold, Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, and one more unnamed QB to the Jets are near locks to be gone by #11. Now add two more QBs being taken and that leaves Miami with at least two of these to choose from: Edmunds, Smith, Ward, Fitzpatrick, and James. Of course, this doesn’t include the one headscratcher that always pops up in the Top 10 to give Miami a better selection.
Sounds nice to me!
Yeah, Miami could still screw it up–but let’s stay upbeat. Why not… least till after the first round. Go Phins!!!