The Phins 2021 opponents lowly 2020 record of .471 is a bit deceiving
There’s some ‘hub-bub and hurrah’ going around about the Miami Dolphins ‘easy 2021 schedule’.
I’m not subscribing to this talking point.
I’m going to be a bit of a Debbie Downer here, Phins fans: This ‘easy ride’ to the playoffs won’t be so easy. I’m not saying this because I don’t think the Phins can handle the competition. Honestly, I need to see a bunch of things play out in Training Camp to get even an inkling of an ‘educated guess’ on how Miami will do this season. My point is that this 27th ranked easiest schedule is based only on the raw win percentages of last year’s teams–not who the team has become this season. If there’s one thing I know: No sport has teams consistently have dramatic turnarounds from year to year like the NFL. When you look over the Phins 2021 schedule, things look a little more sticky in context.
The 2021 Season will absolutely demand the Phins be at their best to make the post season. — HOW TO MAXIMIZE ON YOUR PAY PER HEAD CASINO GAMES PROFITS.
The Dolphins must earn ALL their 2021 success
The good news is while I don’t see this schedule as easy, there are a bunch of ‘wins’ from the schedule makers in 2021. I love the late bye-week in this extra-long season. Miami will get much-needed rest for their final push to make (and succeed in) the postseason. They do get some of the tougher teams at home with Colts, Ravens, Falcons (yes, they will be tough), and the Bills very early in the season where the heat will be a factor. Getting the Pats in Week 18 at home is another good situation.
So, I’m not saying this scheduling is a murders row.
Still, you can bet with the pay per head sportsbook sites that Miami won’t be given an easy ride to the playoffs. This is another reason why I don’t like this ‘easy schedule’ talk because the media will kill them if they don’t reach their expected heights and if they do it won’t be a big deal as it was expected.
The media is tricky like that… especially when it comes to the Miami Dolphins.
1st Quarter
- Week 1: @ New England Patriots, who were 7-9 in 2020 with only a -27 point differential, but this was with a string of good players out from Covid and without the 200 plus million spent on Free Agents in the 2021 offseason. This isn’t an easy opener.
- Week 2: Buffalo Bills beat the Dolphins by only 3 pts last year in Miami, but the defense was decimated by injuries. They get an earlier trip the season to South Florida sun. Maybe the heat gives Miami the winning edge?
- Week 3: @ Las Vegas Raiders lost to Miami by one point on the road in 2020 by a miracle ‘Fitzmagic play’. This time Vegas will be at home. Expect a tough battle.
- Week 4: Indianapolis Colts were 11-5 in 2020 and a playoff team, so playing them in Miami is a useful advantage for the Phins.
- Week 5: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a huge hurdle obviously.
This opening stretch will tell a lot about if Miami has grown into a playoff-caliber team. Colts played the Bills tight in the Divisional round last year. They are tough. Miami will face the Super Bowl winner and two playoff teams. Add in the Patriots in Foxborough and the mercurial Raiders in the desert. If Miami ends 2-3, it will put a load of pressure on them in the 2nd quarter of the season. A Week 1 win against the Pats would be huge to position the Phins for at least 2nd Place in the division. If Miami can somehow walk out with wins over the Bills and Patriots, then any record after the first five games would be a winner.
2nd Quarter
- Week 6: Neutral site, England. Jacksonville Jaguars was beaten handily by the Phins last year 31-13 in Miami. This time though, the game will be overseas with a weird week of prep due to the travel, and the Phins will face Lawrence rather than Minshew at quarterback. Certainly, Miami still has the edge, but the game should be more competitive.
- Week 7: Atlanta Falcons had a lame-duck coach in 2020 and went an ugly 4-12 with only a -18 point differential. But, their offense was very potent and the addition of Pitts and a new staff looks to make them far more dangerous than 4-14.
- Week 8: @ Buffalo Bills dismantled the Dolphins in the final game of the year in Buffalo. How will Miami respond? They must at least keep this respectable if they can take the win outright.
- Week 9: Houston Texans were terrible last year and look to be terrible this year. It’s a waste of home-field advantage on dead wood.
This stretch Miami has one very winnable and one winnable game. So, 2-2 is the bare minimum and 3-1 should be the expected. I’m in the process of watching every 2020 Falcons game… And I’m here to tell you they won’t be easy, so I’m glad Miami has the dirty birds at home. Ryan is still very good, and even without Julio Jones, should they trade him, this offense has a ton of weapons. Receivers Gage and Riddley with tight ends Pitts and Hurst will be a huge test for the Phins defense. The little talked about FA signing of running back Mike Davis is another quality weapon. This game will demand Miami put up plenty of points to win.
Then there will be an away game against the Bills. If the Phins beat the Bills in Miami, this won’t be a critical game. Conversely, if not, they will likely be giving up any real shot at the division and total control of their destiny in 2021.
3rd Quarter
- Week 10: Thursday night Game. Baltimore Ravens shellacked the Dolphins in 2019, but that’s a long time ago. However you slice it, this will be a very challenging game because the Dolphins defense has struggled for years to stop mobile quarterbacks and will have a short week to prep.
- Week 11: @ New York Jets are free of the curse that’s Adam Gase and have a new quarterback, who at least isn’t rattled from incompetent staffs and sacks. The Jets also had a quality offseason and, while they will still struggle, they look to be far more challenging than in recent years. Miami gets a mini Bye-Week coming off the Thursday night game, though. Division games are always tough, but Miami has a strong edge beyond just the talent level.
- Week 12: Carolina Panthers are banking on Darnold… this should be a manageable game because the Phins have a strong talent advantage and are home.
- Week 13: New York Giants aren’t as bad as they appear and Jones was ranked 18th by PFF. Will Jones take a step forward or stay middling in Year 3? Either way, Miami has all the advantages and is expected to win.
- Week 14: BYE Week.
This is clearly the stretch of games presenting the least quality opposition in total. Miami must go at least 3-1 in the 3rd Quarter with a minimum record of 7-6 heading into the Bye to have a shot at the playoffs.
4th Quarter
- Week 15: New York Jets will again face a Phins team that has extra time to prepare. This is a waste of the few crucial extra prep gams you get every year. Miami has every advantage and this is a must-win.
- Week 16: @ New Orleans Saints are without Drew Brees and that hurts, but they are a talented team with an elite coach and are at home. Miami does get an extra day of prep and rest because it’s a Monday Night game, so the home-field advantage takes a little hit. This is a tough win, but one Miami should and must get this “W”.
- Week 17: @ Tennessee Titans are at home and facing a Dolphins team coming off a short week. Next to the Tampa game and the Bills game in Buffalo, this will be Miami’s stiffest challenge.
- Week 18: New England Patriots in Week 18 (weird saying that) will be a must-win as both teams will likely be in a ‘one or the other’ battle for the postseason. This will likely be a regime-defining game even if the Pats fall off and are playing spoilers. Miami must come away with a win and show they are in command of 2nd in the division at the very least to be a successful season.
Obviously, Miami can alter all of this with a shocking win or two… if they avoid the letdowns. As Jimmy Bourbon wrote in his vacation send-off article, Vegas is predicting 9 wins… and a smidgeon. For me, barring some insane run of injuries, or a zebra stealing critical game, the floor for a successful season with 10 wins, in command of 2nd place in the divisions, and vying for a playoff spot into Week 18.
Miami has built the team they wanted and it’s hard not to be positive given ALL they have done. The 2021 Season is about creating real success and not about a feel-good story of ‘ain’t that cute look at those overachievers’. This is going to be one heck of a season, so get your popcorn ready! Go Phins!!! — Why Are Pay Per Head Agents Beneficial to Sportsbooks?
