All QBs that shine in the Draft rarely end up golden on gameday
Phins Fans draft dream is Marino 2.0, but few rookie QBs will even become quality starters
Everyone and their mother has been talking about the depth of high-end Quarterback talent in this draft. Four QB’s: Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield all could be drafted within the Top 10 picks of the first round. This would be a unique event in the history of the NFL Draft. More than likely this will end up just predraft hype.
Each of these top tier QB’s has their warts and red flags. It will be interesting to see how many of these young men can actually live up to the hype. It will also be interesting to see how many regimes will die because of their poor evaluation.
Most pay per head sites are predicting that Sam Darnold will be the first QB selected in the Draft. But Darnold has turned the ball over more than each of the other 3 prospects. Last season Darnold threw 13 interceptions with a whopping 11 fumbles, which was second worst of all NCAA. His turnover problems scream that he could have a rough welcome to the NFL.
Most fans are happy to draft a QB… until they bomb on gameday
Josh Rosen has the best mechanics of each of these prospects. However, durability is his big red flag. Rosen has already suffered two concussions at UCLA because he stands tall and delivers the pass in the face of the rush. NFL QBs get smacked around pretty good, so unless he learns to better avoid hits, he’ll suffer more concussions. Also, there are concerns about his leadership ability to rally the players around him.
Josh Allen has continued to improve his stock over the course of this offseason. He has by far the biggest arm of all the prospects. However, he played against much weaker competition in college than any of these other prospects. Wyoming is in the weak Mountain West Conference, and despite this, he had pedestrian statistics. In 2017 Allen threw for only 1812 yards with an average of 6.7 yards per play, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Those are not the type of dominating numbers one would expect from a top-tier, NFL-worthy QB in a subpar Conference. If that’s the best he can do in a weak College Conference, then what can we truly expect from him in the NFL?
The draft could be a BIG HIT or BIG MISS if they pick a QB in the 1st Round
The last of the ‘top QBs’ is Baker Mayfield who is the most accomplished of each of these QB’s. Mayfield won the Heisman and led his team to the College Playoff 2 out of his last 3 seasons. The biggest knock on him is that he is a bit undersized for an NFL QB. It’s a legit concern as his statue will force him to rely too heavily on throwing lanes to complete his passes. Also, like Rosen, there are some concerns about his character. Many analysts worry he could be more Johnny Manziel than Drew Brees.
Miami drafting a QB gives me the ‘willies’
Even though these QBs are expected to be selected early, there’s no definite home run among them. The most likely scenario will be that in three years we’ll all be laughing about how overrated they were. So there’s no way in hell Miami should go all in a trade up. It would feel good for a little while, but if the QB pick ends up a miss, it will be years before Miami recovers.
Also, part of me hopes the Dolphins brass won’t even get tempted with one of these Qbs at #11. The best-case scenario for Miami could be that Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield all go in the Top 10. My trust level for this FO isn’t sky high, so a near idiot proof selection with one of the non-QB top talents might be the safest and best road going forward. Go Phins!!!