Only a total overhaul will fix the Phins terrible defense
Phins defense is a disaster
When Adam Gase was introduced as the new Dolphins Head Coach, Miami let it be known that defense would employ the Wide 9 scheme with Press Zone Coverage.
It sounded exciting.
After years of a laid-back Joe Philbin, I slurped up the thought of an aggressive style of defense.
I really wanted the hybrid 3-4 / 4-3 of Mike Nolan, but Philbin’s exit made me grateful for anything new and ballsy.
By the end of 2016, the luster on the Wide 9 was gone.
I hoped that somehow it would all work out with the departure of Vance Joseph.
The 2017 Season ended up a disaster, but the defense did improve. With some additions, I expected the 2018 Defense to take another step forward… even if it was a small one.
A scheme is just a blueprint that succeeds or fails on the talent and coaching using it.
Every scheme has inherent weaknesses and strengths. There isn’t a ‘perfect one’. Each scheme though, by its design, gives and takes differently. The Bucs ‘Tampa 2′ and Bears ’46’ are opposite ends of the spectrum and were both All-Time defenses.
Phins ‘D’ Philosophy and how it evolved over three seasons:
2016: Wide 9 Defense with Zone Press (which in fact was off coverage), and ‘mirror safeties’.
2017: Wide 9 Defense with actual Zone Press and Linebackers that had interchangeable roles, and ‘mirror safeties’.
2018: Wide 9 Defense with a D-Line that was now are penetrators instead of occupies, Zone Press and Linebackers that have interchangeable roles, and ‘mirror safeties’.
Production of the Phins defense over the three years:
2016: 29th in yards (382.6), 15th Pass D (242.2), 30th Run D (140.4), tied for 19th with 5 teams in sacks 33, and tied for 9th with 3 teams with 16 picks.
2017: 16th in yards (335.7), 16th Pass D (225.2), 14th Run D (110.5) 26th in sacks 30, 28th Ints 9.
2018: 29th in yards (399.4), 21st Pass D (254.8), 30th Run D (144.7) 29th in sacks 20, 2nd in Ints 19.
*Notice the 2016 defense is a near mirror of 2018 despite 3 years of construction.
Now let’s examine how the talent, philosophy and scheme mix.
Miami’s defense is built on the Wide 9. Not as an extreme version as the Eagles ‘D’ circa 2011… but they still have smallish D-End lining up beyond the 5 Technique.
The weakness of the Wide 9 is the interior, especially the A-Gap. The Wide 9 demands stout D-Tackles to support this exposed interior. Active Linebackers that either diagnosis quickly or shed well are key in run defense. Due to the stretched D-line front, Linebackers will have plenty of blockers on the second level.
If a team has two DTs who demand two blockers and can break those doubles often, you can get away with less than exceptional linebackers. But with every team searching for dominant DTs, this an easy find for Front Offices. And even with two studs inside, you’ll need at least one LB inside who’s smart and exceptional at beating blocks because the extended Defensive Ends will get bullied or run past the play during the course of the game.
Miami didn’t have the right pieces for the Wide 9… and didn’t find them either.
When Gase was hired he had only one piece of the puzzle with Suh. Maybe they believed Phillips was the other.
Below shows how poor LB play, even when the DTs gets it right, can cause massive problems.
So, even if the DTs manage to handle the double team, the LBs can’t get lost.
Due to the wide alignment, and the LBs need to bolster the weakened interior, the smaller D-Ends can be exposed and swallowed by much bigger O-Tackles even on edge plays. This again tests the LB’s ability to diagnose, react, and their foot speed. So, even the wide part of the field can be easily exposed if the LBs don’t get it right. Below, McMillan just guesses and shoots inside. It’s the worst possible decision. Wake is held up, and Kiko isn’t fast enough to get to the edge.
What separates 2017 from the years that bookend it?
In 2016, the Dolphins had Suh, who was a Top 10 DT, with a rotational play beside him. Wake and Branch were on the edge and Kiko was the MLB with Hewitt and Spence Paysinger outside. Kiko was solid in 2016, but his stack and attack was a weakness.
In 2017, Suh had an upgrade next to him with the addition of Godchaux and Taylor. Wake and Branch were still on the edges with the addition of Harris, who was a liability in the run game. William Hayes helped, but injuries limited his production. Kiko was moved outside to the Will and Timmons and Maualuga played the SAM and MIKE backers. Maualuga was cut after a few games and Stephone Anthony came in on passing downs with Chase Allen in a minor role.
Despite Malaluga being cut, Timmons quitting and not being as good as billed, both diagnose well and shed even better. This was the key. When Malaluga left the run defense suffered, but Timmons was able to break enough blocks to keep the ‘D’ competent.
Timmons was light years better at beating blocks than McMillan and Kiko.
The Dolphins posted a respectable ability to stop the run in 2017. Limiting the offenses run game helped the pass defense by keeping Qbs off track more often. This created a somewhat stable defense. Yes, players missed assignments and Kiko was abused, but that’s another tale.
Overall, while only adequate, the 2017 defense was leaps and bounds better than in 2016.
In 2018, Dolphins added a healed McMillan, Quinn, Fitzpatrick, Spence, and Baker while losing Suh. Godchaux and Taylor blossomed and both ranked 2 of the Top 32 DTs by PFF.
So why the poor run defense?
It’s fair to blame some of this on injuries…
… Burkes’ decision to give the Linebackers interchangeable roles is another. The same thing happened with the Offensive Line when ‘versatility’ was in effect. Now, some teams pull it off. The ones that do have players smart enough to handle it. But Miami’s Linebackers aren’t capable. These Dolphins LBs would have been best served to have specific roles that they can master. There’s too much confusion pre-snap among the LBs. While this is expected when you have two young players, why add to the difficulty?
This is a flaw added by Burke’s hand.
But, beyond this ‘excuse’, not a single starting linebacker is exceptionally patient, quick to diagnose post snap, or competent at shedding or evading blocks. Individually or in another scheme, these flaws in their games wouldn’t be so detrimental. But in the Wide 9 and together as a unit, they get exposed.
Defensive Prognosis for 2019
Miami has quality talent at Defensive Tackle, but not elite. Wake will be 37, Quinn has one move, Hayes will likely retire, Branch needs to be cut, and Harris is weak in run defense.
To even dream of continuing the Wide 9, the Linebackers would need a near elite MLB to support them. Baker is a good Will. Kiko is sloppy but active… and he can’t be cut due to guaranteed money. Both should and will play a role in whatever Defense is here next year.
McMillan though is the most prominent of the many gaping holes on defense. He is slow and unathletic, has played poorly, and been exposed often. There must be competition at the position. As a young 2nd Round Pick, this will be a big pill to swallow for the FO and staff. But the Linebacker unit needs help and a position battle would only help McMillan’s chance at improving.
Because of the above, the Dolphins need to scrap the Wide 9 even if Gase and Co. return. The current personnel accentuates the weakness of the scheme, and they need too much to retool this unit. It needs a total overhaul. Given the history of this Front Offices talent acquisition, and the needs on the offense as well, Miami just doesn’t have enough ability or ammo to fix the Wide 9 quick enough. Whatever happens with this regime, a less exotic scheme is the only way to go in 2019. Go Phins!!!
