Examining the Phins Ted Karras Signing

M.J.

5 years ago

How should fans view the Karras signing?

We all know by now the Miami Dolphins have signed the Patriots former starting Center among their many Free Agents acquisitions. Unfortunately, the Patriots center that the Dolphins penned a contract with was Ted Karras and not David Andrews. Still, Karras isn’t chump change. He’s young and was ranked the 20th best center in the NFL by PFF with a grade of 66.5. But, as Armando wrote, Miami’s former center Daniel Kilgore was rated roughly the same with a PFF grade of 66.3 and nearly the same sacks allowed.

So, the Karras signing is being billed as a horizontal move… at best.

Maybe, maybe not.

Let’s add some context so we can fine-tune these numbers.

Kilgore is 32 years old and Karras 27. Karras suffered an MCL sprain in 2019 but returned a week later. Kilgore, on the other hand, also suffered a knee injury but missed three games. It would appear Karras still has the youth to battle through injury.
Kilgore played 877 snaps with 631 pass snaps and 256 rushing snaps grading a 72.7 and 60.7 by PFF, respectively. Karras played 1102 snaps with 658 pass snaps and 444 rushing snaps grading a 60.3 and 67.4 by PFF, respectively. Kilgore played in an offense that heavily favored his strength of pass protection, while Karras played in an offense that favored his weakness pass protection. Still, in roughly the same amount of snaps Karras let up one less sack.
As per NFLSavant.com, the Patriots’ primary area of rushing attack was behind Karras. The Patriots generated a 3.12 YPC behind Karras with a 3.14 YPC on 1st Down / 3.15 on 2nd Down/ and 3.0 on 3rd Down.

Type	Attempts	Yards	Avg	% of plays
CENTER / Karras & James Ferentz for half a game	89	278	3.12	23.86%

As per NFLSavant.com, behind Kilgore was also the Phins’ primary area of attack. The Dolphins generated a 2.49 YPC behind Kilgore with a 2.67 YPC on 1st Down / 2.68 on 2nd Down/ and 1.69 on 3rd Down! This is with 3 games where Boehm offered solid production.

Type	Attempts	Yards	Avg	% of plays
CENTER / Kilgore & Boehm (3 games)	81	202	2.49	28.42%

Factoring the RB that ran behind them

On a final note, there was a difference in the Pats and Phins running back’s Yards After Contacts: Michel 247 carries with a 1.6 YAC / White 67 carries with 1.5 YAC / Burkhead 65 carries 2.2 YAC compared to Ballage 74 carries with 1.1 YAC / Laird 62 carries with 1.3 YAC / Walton 53 carries 2.1 YAC / Gaskin 2.9 YAC. Karras had a slight edge in the better backs, although Walton and Gaskin make it close.

On a side note, what a waste of talent because Walton had a ton of potential.

Karras will have an opportunity

The Phins are being billed as a spread offense with Chan Gailey on board. Maybe that’s not the case? I’m sure it will be an element of the spread, but the addition of fullback / Linebacker Elandon Roberts and mammoth guard Ereck Flowers along with a power runner Jordan Howard, the Dolphins may be aiming towards a far more balanced attack than anticipated. If this is the case, the value of Karras increases.

I’ve just started watching Karras, and so far he handles power far better than Kilgore, who’s lack of strength was a major issue for the Phins on multiple levels. Kilgore did play better against power late in 2019, but more often than not he spent a ton of time getting bull-rushed into the backfield.

So, while you can bet on the pay per head bookie sites like www.AcePerHead.com that Karras isn’t guaranteed anything and will have to compete with someone for the position, I’ll disagree with Armando that it’s only a horizontal move. Instead, I’ll grade the Karras signing as a vertical move with a slight incline… and an outside chance for more. Still, I hope the Phins draft a center and can even see them moving Deiter (who played 16 games at center in college) there, just as easily. Go Phins!!!

How should fans view the Karras signing?

Let’s add some context so we can fine-tune these numbers.

Factoring the RB that ran behind them

Karras will have an opportunity

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