This Sunday at 6:40 pm the Indianapolis Colts will travel to New England to take on the Patriots. For Tom Brady and the Patriots, this will be their 4th consecutive AFC championship game, and they are desperately looking to return to the Super Bowl and add another piece of hardware to their already decorative collection. The Colts have not been to the AFC championship game since 2010 when Peyton Manning was behind center. This time they will be led by the electric third-year player Andrew Luck.
These two teams met back in Indianapolis on November 16th and New England had their way with them, beating the Colts easily by the score of 40-24, but as the Colts proved last week against the Broncos, it is tough to beat a team twice in one season. However, Luck has faced the Patriots 3 times in his young career and has been blown out in all three contests, for a combined score of 144-66. The Patriots have definitely had Luck’s number so far, but the Colts will be looking to change that trend this Sunday.
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Luck has been spectacular so far this season and in the Colts’ two playoff games, but if they want to beat the Patriots he is going to need some help from the rest of his team. For starters, the Colts must get a pass rush on Brady, and not let him get comfortable in the pocket. Brady is a first-ballot Hall of Fame QB, however, the one way teams have been able to beat him was with a steady and constant pass rush. Secondly, the Colts need to make the Pats one-dimensional and stop the Patriots running attack by committee.
On offense the Colts need to establish some sort of a running game, because as good as Luck is, he still needs some help offensively. Last week Daniel Herron received a steady workload and was able to rush 23 times for 63 yards 1 touchdown, and added 8 receptions and 32 yards through the air. Look for the Colts to continue to give Herron a chance to create some plays against the Pats.
The free bookie software websites have the Patriots as the -6.5 point favorite. The best sportsbooks initially opened the line at -7 for the Pats, but it has dropped slightly down to -6.5, even though the action has been steadily coming more on the Pats at over a 2 to 1 rate. I am feeling Lucky, so I would take the points and look for Luck and the Colts to make this a very tight game. They may not be able to win in New England, but they should be able to cover the spread.
