Finding the Real Josh Rosen

M.J.

5 years ago

After you actually watch Rosen play in 2018, you wonder why there’s so much hate?

The Josh Rosen trade has the potential to lift the Miami Dolphins out of the trash bin of the NFL…

… or not.

Potential, as Phins fans know all too well, doesn’t become production near often enough with the Dolphins. In fact, potential has rarely been more than a catchphrase used to offer hope to a desperate fanbase with little to believe in over the last two decades.

Despite all the letdowns, hope shouldn’t be treated as a new love interest after a bad break up. Instead, Phins fans should review each ‘untapped potential’ on a case-by-case basis and resist the lure of being jaded–however reasonable it is. What fun is there in that after all? Football is supposed to be about having a good time… right?

So, who’s the real Josh Rosen… Top 10 Draft pick or selfish bust?

We’ve been told a lot, both pro and con, about Josh Rosen. Unfortunately, there are many writers with an ax to grind. Whether critics ultimately prove right or wrong about Rosen, there’s no substitute to form your own opinion than actually watching Rosen’s play in 2018. For those too busy or without the means to watch the old tape, I put together a ‘wham, bam mashup’ of the high and low points of Rosen’s 2018 Season for your viewing pleasure.

Here Rosen’s good plays, miscues, and the Cards blunders over his first 6 starts

I’m working on compiling the plays of his last 7 games for a full perspective

What did the tape reveal about Rosen and the team supporting him

Drops, drops, and more drops. The flipper fingers did taper off as the season went on, but early on they came in bunches.
Pressure: As the season went on the O-line fell to pieces in play and injuries.
Rosen can throw that ball on a line and accurate both medium and long.
For good or ill, Miami has a gunslinger in South Florida (two if you add Fitzpatrick).
Rosen is willing to take the hit to get the pass off.
Slight accuracy issues due to a poor platform that pops up from time to time.
Gets tunnel vision at times. Is this due to nature or being green? Only time will tell… but the second part of his 2018 Season will give some indication.

By comparing situations you will better gauge them

According to most evaluations, Baker Mayfield is the height of the 2018 QB draft class starters and Rosen the bottom. While I agree with the assessment of Baker being the best (at this point), after watching Rosen play and investigating the Cardinals 2018 team, he isn’t last in line.

Context though adds a ton of mitigation to raw stats.

Here is a comparison of both the Browns and the Cards in two key aspects that support quarterback production: the Offensive Line and run game.

PFF ranked the Offensive Lines in 2018, the Browns earned 2nd best in the league. As per PFF, “Their interior offensive linemen – left guard Joel Bitonio, center J.C. Tretter, and right guard Kevin Zeitler – combined to give up only 39 total pressures on the season.” By comparison, the “Cards were ranked 32nd and “11 different offensive linemen played at least 100 snaps for the Cardinals this season, and not a single one played well.”

Mayfield and Rosen had polar opposite support from the most important unit in the game. If that doesn’t add context, then I don’t know what does.

Let’s add the difference in their run games as a cherry on top.

Over their first six games, Mayfield was bolstered by three 100 yards game and one 200 yard game. Rosen, on the other hand, didn’t have even one 100 yard game in support.

Now, again, I’m not saying Rosen is as good as Mayfield, but it’s undeniable that the supporting casts had vastly different levels of support. You don’t need pay per head software to know this is a legit factor for comparison and evaluation. No?!

Would Baker have been as good on the Cards?

Would Rosen have been as bad on the Browns?

Maybe more than a single season on the worst team in the league should pass before Rosen gets tagged with the bust label?

As for little ole’ me, the film of Rosen shows a QB of equal to or better talent than media darling and fellow 2018 rookie Sam Darnold–who had the better supporting cast, might I add. Their stats are comparable as a baseline. Maybe the last seven games will tell a different story? We will see. Off to watch some Cards games. Go Phins!!!

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