This title not an optical illusion or trick of the mind, someone actually is predicting that the Miami Dolphins will represent the AFC Conference in the upcoming Super Bowl. A prediction is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, however it does not mean that it will become a reality.
A student at Harvard University has developed a model for predicting the odds for each team to make the playoffs. Instead of using strength of schedule, he used an Approximate Value statistic from Pro Football Reference combined with ESPN’s NFL depth charts to determine how teams will do. He even back tested it for last year and his model accurately predicted most of the 2014 playoff teams.
This model has the Seahawks as the best team in the NFL, and the Green Bay Packers as a close second, which many fans would agree are very reasonable and realistic predictions. However, for the next best team, the model has predicted the Dolphins as the third best team in football and predicted them to represent the AFC in the upcoming Super Bowl. I would love to see that become a reality, but lets walk before we run and lets make the playoffs first. The model is also predicting that Miami has a 77% chance of making the playoffs, which is the best of any of the other AFC teams.
Another interesting thing to note about this study is that its top 10 ranked teams include every single member of the AFC East. On first look that may look ridiculous as well, however, I would argue that the AFC East has a chance to have the best division in football in terms of most combined wins. They have the reigning Super Bowl champs in the New England Patriots, who are always good for at least 9 wins. Then each of the other 3 teams have all improved, and all will have a realistic opportunity to make the playoffs this season, and win between 8 and 10 games.
This is not the first time this century that the Dolphins were picked by someone to go to the Super Bowl. Sports Illustrated had the Dolphins going to the Super Bowl in 2006 when Nick Saban was entering his 2nd season as the Phins head coach and that did not come close to reality, because Miami finished last in the AFC East with a dismal 6-10 record.
These predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, however it is still encouraging that mathematical based formulas and models are giving Miami some backing this year. At the very least it shows that this team has increased the talent on their roster, and if they can play up to their expectations then they should at least have a realistic opportunity to at least make the playoffs. One other side note is that a respected site called Advanced Football Analytics also has the Dolphins doing well this season, and has them among the top 5 teams in football, and ahead of the New England Patriots. This may finally be the year that Miami dethrones the reigning perpetual AFC East Champions. What does the rest of the Miami Dolphins News gurus think about these analytical studies coming true?
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