Miami has over $50 million per season tied up in Hill & Waddle
Based on tonight’s Buffalo Bills and New York Jets Monday Night Football matchup, the Miami Dolphins could be right in the thick of the AFC East hunt. I know this team hasn’t shown much to have faith in them, but with a slate of manageable games, you can’t completely write them off. I do think if the Bills win, it’s almost a death sentence on us having any chance to win the east.
Either way, if the Dolphins want any chance to salvage this season, they need a ton more for their star receivers Hill and Waddle. With just 544 yards combined on the season, this dynamic due has mostly been pedestrian except for Hill in Week 1 vs the worst pass defense in the league.
Yes, Tua being absent has been a hit on their production, but through two weeks with Tua they had plenty of stretches of invisibility. So, I can’t blame it all on Tua’s absence. So, I dug into their season and found some interesting bits of info that might offer some answers.
Waddle AND Hill are expected to be gamechangers Tua or not!
Hill was aiming for 2k pass receiving yards last season, this year he is averaging 57 per game! Waddle is averaging 37 yards per game! It’s hard to believe really! This could change very fast or not. If it doesn’t then we could see wholesale changes next year because the Dolphins won’t win many games.
If you take out of the equation Tua’s absence being the lion’s share of the issues, then what is it? You can bet with the best pay per head that if the Jets got Garret Wilson to have high success with Mike White and Zach Wilson, Hill AND Waddle together shouldn’t have this abysmal production even with Skylar and Huntley… and with Tua for that matter.
Below is some data I compiled. There’s is a bunch of points to talk about but I’m going to just focus on two:
Look at the change in the cushion and average air yards between 2024 and 2023 with Waddle and Hill. Just FYI, the stats on the left of the / is 2024 and on the right 2023. Notice how defense have ticked up the cushion on Hill from 5.8 to 6.1 and crunched the cushion on Waddle from 6.7 to 4.9! Surely the QB change added to this, but not all of it. Look at the target range of Hill going from 10.8 to 12.8 and Waddle dropping from 10.0 to 7.6.
Defenses appear to be daring Waddle to beat them by playing tight and giving more berth to Hill. Waddle has grown in his average RAC and separation but can’t seem to make enough big plays to back them off and free up Hill. Conversely, Hill who is now targeted deeper is facing defenses playing the high game and he can’t beat it or work the underneath to much effect. Hill was rated the #1 player in the game this year, if he really is that then he should be doing much more than this.
Miami dynamic due have been more Laural and Hardy than Batman and Robin.
Mike McDaniel needs to figure a way to get them to succeed
This must reflect on Head Coach / Offensive Coordinator Mike McDaniel who should find ways their combine talents to the benefit of the team and each other’s production even with a poor quarterback and offensive line. Again, look at Wilson who has had both a poor QB and offensive line for years and still produced.
I do think a run game and the return of Tua will help, but it sure feels like there’s a load more than that! Even more than the letdown of the 2024 Season so far, Hill and Waddle flopping hard is even more stunning. It’s always exciting being a Dolphin fan! Let’s hope something changes… starting with Hill and Waddle, especially after both receivers and McDaniel got all that new money! Go Phins!!!