How Does Tua Stack Up vs 24 Years of QBs?!

319ish notable quarterbacks have been added to NFL teams over the last 24 years

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been a lightning rod on evaluating his talents and ability to lead the Phins to meaningful wins. But we won’t truly know the ceiling of his talents for quite some time and a lot of that evaluation will be based on the team built around… as is the case with most quarterbacks. The floor of his ability is pretty clear when you look at the history of quarterbacks that have been added over the last two decades. Everyone wants the next Marino, Peyton Manning, or Patrick Mahomes: elite talents at the very top of their craft. Problem is there are only a few of them in the history of the game and many franchises have never had even one of those talents much less a few.

I went over the last 24 years of quarterbacks added to NFL rosters and it’s clear that Tua’s talents have him in a very small group of quarterbacks. This isn’t to say Tua is elite or that he’ll carry the Dolphins to a Super Bowl win. I took a very conservative approach to eliminate as much debate as possible. When you look at the 319 quarterbacks added over the last 24 years, even those not high on him will see that at the very least he’s a better prospect than the vast majority of QBs signed.

Again, this isn’t to say Tua is HIM! Rather the goal of this article is to create a sober evaluation of how hard it is to find a functional starting quarterback and how Tua’s floor is at the very least that much.

The vast majority of NFL QBs aren’t starter material

Below is conservative list of QBs above near or slightly below Tua’s talents, depending on how your evaluations lead you. But the goal is to err on the side of caution to focus on those clearly not good enough. If you want a draft-by-draft look you can check my podcast on this topic for a closer look.

Joe Burrow: a talent, albeit beat up talent, that took his team to a Cinderella SB appearance
Patrick Mahomes: ‘Nuff said
Jalen Hurts: Led his team to a SB appearance
Eli Manning: Two SB wins and stopped the near perfect Patriots
Phillips Rivers: talented and prolific, but never had many meaningful playoff wins
Ben Rothlisberger: 2 SB wins and posted prolific number after a slower start as a game manger
Lamar Jackson: Game changer and league MVP
Josh Allen: a freak dual threat who has won some big post season games… and also lost some
Justin Herbert: Talent and young, but has been up behind some incomplete teams
DeShaun Watson: Elite tools, but erratic on and off the field
Trevor Lawrence: All the tools and won a playoff game, but hasn’t met potential yet
Brock Purdy: Led the 49ers to a SB appearance in his second year and posted good production
Jimmy G: Led the 49er to a SB and two conference championships
Matthew Stafford: Elite throwing talent that languished in Detroit before winning a SB
CJ Stroud: Still very early, but that was one heck of a rookie season
Tom Brady: ‘Nuff Said
Dak Prescott: He’s produced good numbers, plenty of postseason appearances with some wins
Matt Ryan: Prolific with post season success and a SB appearance
Joe Flacco: Hada good stretch, post season success and SB win
Cam Newton: Ton of athletic talent, dominant for a stretch with SB appearance
Carson Palmer: Very talented, but injury derailed his career
Drew Brees: HOF numbers with a SB win
Mike Vick: A force in the air on the ground with some post seasons success, but derailed by off the field issues & injuries
Andrew Luck: Supremely talent, but career cut very short by injuries
Russell Wilson: SB win and prolific production
Arron Rodgers: ‘Nuff said
Kirk Cousins: Posted some good numbers with some post season appearances and a couple of wins

About 90% of QBs added aren’t even base level long-term starters

Even if you want to add 10 more to this list you have a group of 38 quarterbacks or 12%. So Tua is part of a collection of QBs set apart to the positive side from 88% of all others at the position over the last 24 years. It doesn’t take the best football software to know those are terrible odds of finding a starting QB at only 12-8% and Tua is at the very least a win at a floor level! Time will tell starting with this season what his ceiling is.

Again, this isn’t to say Tua is or isn’t the guy to take us to the promise land. But considering the vast rate of misses, Tua is clearly a guy that’s the best QB since Marino and a huge upgrade over the likes of Jay Fielder, Chad Henne, Jay Culter, Gus Frerotte. Whether it’s Tua or someone else, let’s just hope that we get ‘HIM’ sooner rather than later! Go Phins!!!