319ish notable quarterbacks have been added to NFL teams over the last 24 years
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been a lightning rod on evaluating his talents and ability to lead the Phins to meaningful wins. But we won’t truly know the ceiling of his talents for quite some time and a lot of that evaluation will be based on the team built around… as is the case with most quarterbacks. The floor of his ability is pretty clear when you look at the history of quarterbacks that have been added over the last two decades. Everyone wants the next Marino, Peyton Manning, or Patrick Mahomes: elite talents at the very top of their craft. Problem is there are only a few of them in the history of the game and many franchises have never had even one of those talents much less a few.
I went over the last 24 years of quarterbacks added to NFL rosters and it’s clear that Tua’s talents have him in a very small group of quarterbacks. This isn’t to say Tua is elite or that he’ll carry the Dolphins to a Super Bowl win. I took a very conservative approach to eliminate as much debate as possible. When you look at the 319 quarterbacks added over the last 24 years, even those not high on him will see that at the very least he’s a better prospect than the vast majority of QBs signed.
Again, this isn’t to say Tua is HIM! Rather the goal of this article is to create a sober evaluation of how hard it is to find a functional starting quarterback and how Tua’s floor is at the very least that much.
The vast majority of NFL QBs aren’t starter material
Below is conservative list of QBs above near or slightly below Tua’s talents, depending on how your evaluations lead you. But the goal is to err on the side of caution to focus on those clearly not good enough. If you want a draft-by-draft look you can check my podcast on this topic for a closer look.
- Joe Burrow: a talent, albeit beat up talent, that took his team to a Cinderella SB appearance
- Patrick Mahomes: ‘Nuff said
- Jalen Hurts: Led his team to a SB appearance
- Eli Manning: Two SB wins and stopped the near perfect Patriots
- Phillips Rivers: talented and prolific, but never had many meaningful playoff wins
- Ben Rothlisberger: 2 SB wins and posted prolific number after a slower start as a game manger
- Lamar Jackson: Game changer and league MVP
- Josh Allen: a freak dual threat who has won some big post season games… and also lost some
- Justin Herbert: Talent and young, but has been up behind some incomplete teams
- DeShaun Watson: Elite tools, but erratic on and off the field
- Trevor Lawrence: All the tools and won a playoff game, but hasn’t met potential yet
- Brock Purdy: Led the 49ers to a SB appearance in his second year and posted good production
- Jimmy G: Led the 49er to a SB and two conference championships
- Matthew Stafford: Elite throwing talent that languished in Detroit before winning a SB
- CJ Stroud: Still very early, but that was one heck of a rookie season
- Tom Brady: ‘Nuff Said
- Dak Prescott: He’s produced good numbers, plenty of postseason appearances with some wins
- Matt Ryan: Prolific with post season success and a SB appearance
- Joe Flacco: Hada good stretch, post season success and SB win
- Cam Newton: Ton of athletic talent, dominant for a stretch with SB appearance
- Carson Palmer: Very talented, but injury derailed his career
- Drew Brees: HOF numbers with a SB win
- Mike Vick: A force in the air on the ground with some post seasons success, but derailed by off the field issues & injuries
- Andrew Luck: Supremely talent, but career cut very short by injuries
- Russell Wilson: SB win and prolific production
- Arron Rodgers: ‘Nuff said
- Kirk Cousins: Posted some good numbers with some post season appearances and a couple of wins
About 90% of QBs added aren’t even base level long-term starters
Even if you want to add 10 more to this list you have a group of 38 quarterbacks or 12%. So Tua is part of a collection of QBs set apart to the positive side from 88% of all others at the position over the last 24 years. It doesn’t take the best football software to know those are terrible odds of finding a starting QB at only 12-8% and Tua is at the very least a win at a floor level! Time will tell starting with this season what his ceiling is.
Again, this isn’t to say Tua is or isn’t the guy to take us to the promise land. But considering the vast rate of misses, Tua is clearly a guy that’s the best QB since Marino and a huge upgrade over the likes of Jay Fielder, Chad Henne, Jay Culter, Gus Frerotte. Whether it’s Tua or someone else, let’s just hope that we get ‘HIM’ sooner rather than later! Go Phins!!!