Vegas has given their odds on the Phins 2020 Season
Whether the NFL season starts on time or not, ‘Vegas’ has made its predictions for the outcomes of the 2020 Season. Sure, no one expects the Dolphins to contend for the Super Bowl, but there were some interesting movements in lines.
Shortly after the Super Bowl, the oddsmakers put up the odds for every NFL team to win the upcoming Super Bowl. To no surprise, the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers were at the top of the list as favored to win. The best bookie software had Miami dead last on the list at +12,500. This means that if you wagered $100 on the Dolphins to win the upcoming Super Bowl you would get a $12,500 payout if this miracle happened.
That’s a huge longshot for the Phins to go all the way!
‘The money’ sees Miami as having had a successful Free Agency
But after the Dolphins spent a ton of money in Free Agency and filled some holes, their odds to win the Super Bowl have come down significantly to +8000. Again, this means that the same $100 wager on the Dolphins to win it all will now win $8,000. Lines makers have taken a very positive turn on the 2020 Dolphins because that’s quite a difference in the payout. And considering they stand to lose big if they evaluate teams wrong, this is a highly informed indication that the Phins are becoming a better team.
Yes, it’s still a longshot for them to win the Superbowl, but that’s a huge improvement of roughly 33%! And Miami hasn’t even used their ton of picks yet! What will Vegas say if the Phins draft well?
Vegas sees a solid improvement in win totals
Another line that saw the positive movement for the Dolphins was their regular-season win total over/under odds. The original line that opened for Miami’s over/under win total was over 5.5 games at -150. So the ‘favorite’ was that Miami had a good chance to win more than 5 games. However, now the odds have changed to over 6.5 games at -110 for the Dolphins wins this season. So, if you still want to bet on the Phins winning over the number of games, they’ll need to win 7 games. The risk of $110 to win $100 makes the bet cheaper but also harder.
The bump of one full game by the money men isn’t common considering the NFL only plays 16 Regular-Season games.
This shows that the lines makers see Miami as a much-improved team with their Free-Agent moves. Also, consider that Vegas pegged the Phins to win 4.5 games last year, that’s a near 50% improvement from last year. And again, the Phins still have the draft to bolster their squad. So, at the moment a good baseline for this season is 6-7+ wins.
Phins are moving up & the Pats are heading down
One other line to look at is the odds of who will win the AFC East. Now the big move on this didn’t come from the Dolphins but instead came from Tom Brady leaving the Patriots. So instead of New England being the usual big-time money line favorites to win the division, the Patriots dropped to -120 to win the East with the Bills being even money. That line has changed a little with the Bills and Patriots both being co-favorites to win the division at +110.
Unfortunately, the Dolphins odds haven’t moved and are the worst in the division at +1000. But, we’ll see if this changes after the draft.
I’m not saying the Dolphins are going to be world-beaters this year. However, every year there is a team that goes from last to first and first to last. With the Pats sans Brady and a solid draft from the Phins, maybe picking Miami to win the AFC East at +1000 offers a great bang for your buck?
I don’t know how it will all play out, but by all indications, the Dolphins are finally heading in the right direction. If the Phins can just nail this draft… anything is possible!
What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans’ thoughts of Miami’s chances next season?