Phins play five Primetime games this season that will flip or confirm a bad trend
The Miami Dolphins will be front and center this season, with five primetime games and an international matchup in Spain—each set to draw major national and global attention. This high level of exposure in what feels like a pivotal season will define not only the team’s trajectory but potentially much more, one way or the other.
Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have struggled mightily under the bright lights. Miami is just 2–9 in primetime games, a 22% win rate, which stands in stark contrast to his 21–14 record in non-primetime games—a 60% win rate. With 35% of this season’s schedule falling under high-exposure games, the outcome could very well determine not only this season’s success, but McDaniel’s future as the Dolphins’ head coach.
Dolphins Primetime Record Under Mike McDaniel
2022 Season:
- Week 4: Loss @ Bengals (27–15)
- Week 7: Win vs Steelers (16–10)
- Week 14: Loss @ Chargers (23–17)
- Week 15: Loss @ Bills (32–29)
- AFC Wild Card: Loss @ Bills (34–31)
2023 Season:
- Week 2: Win @ Patriots (24–17)
- Week 7: Loss @ Eagles (31–17)
- Week 12 (Black Friday): Win @ Jets (34–13)
- Week 17: Loss @ Ravens (56–19)
- AFC Wild Card: Loss @ Chiefs (26–7)
2024 Season:
- Week 2: Loss vs Bills (31–10)
- Week 4: Loss vs Titans (31–12)
2025 Primetime & High-Exposure Schedule:
- Week 3: @ Bills (Thursday Night Football)
- Week 4: vs Jets (Monday Night Football)
- Week 9: vs Ravens (Thursday Night Football)
- Week 11: vs Commanders in Spain (International Game)
- Week 15: @ Steelers (Monday Night Football)
- Week 16: vs Bengals (Sunday Night Football)
Primetime sink or swim for McDaniel?
According to the best football software, the Dolphins are projected to lose to the Bills, Ravens, and Commanders. The Steelers on the road won’t be easy—especially if Aaron Rodgers is under center—but even without him, it’s a tough ask. That leaves just two home games, against the Jets and Bengals, where Miami is expected to have a favorable shot.
Dropping even one of those two winnable games could spell disaster if the rest of the schedule plays out as predicted. Even if McDaniel meets expectations and manages a 2–4 primetime record this season, it would only bump his career mark to 4–15—a mere 21% success rate.
In other words, McDaniel needs to outperform projections and pull off at least one upset to reshape the narrative. It’s not just about getting to the playoffs—it’s about winning when the spotlight is brightest.
Not a single snap has been played yet, so much remains to be seen. But the stakes are undeniably high. If McDaniel can guide the Dolphins through this uphill battle, he’ll cement himself as the man for the job in South Florida. If not, the franchise may be looking for a new head coach in 2026.
McDaniel has often said that challenge is just another word for opportunity. Well, now he’s got plenty of both. Go Phins!!!