Now that the Phins / Hawks injury report is out, the ‘playerscape’ of who will be available Sunday is pretty clear. So, it’s time to look into the matchups and see what we can expect. Because this is such a big game for Miami, I spent extra time watching Seattle. There was some good news and bad news for the Dolphins.
Okay, let’s get right into it.
Seattle / Phins injury list
Seattle will be without the services of rookie LB Jordyn Brooks, S Jamal Adams, and CB Quinton Dunbar. The Hawks also have a bunch of players that are questionable. For Miami, CB Byron Jones and S Kavon Frazier are doubtful and G Solomon Kindly is questionable. I expect Kindly to play because the reports are that Brian Flores doesn’t consider this serious. But, it is a foot issue, so for a man 340lbs this could turn serious.
The skinny on the Phins / Seattle matchups:
Xavien Howard looks to carry a full load this week. WR Tyler Lockett is ranked 14th in the NFL by PFF, where CB Howard is ranked 10th. The time is now for Howard to prove his worth and limit Lockett who can burst open the deep vertical play often. At the end of the day, this matchup could make Phins fans very happy or very upset.
LBs K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner jump off the film. Wagner in the middle and Wright on the edge is tough sledding for an offense in the run game and in pass protection.
Seattle is a mess of inconsistency on offense, but Wilson’s backyard style will murder the Phins front-7 and secondary if they aren’t disciplined. The Flores disciplined and smart mantra will play out big because while sloppy, Seattle generates big plays. Miami must limit penalties and turnovers. This goes without saying week in and week out… but even more so this week. Sloppy Seattle makes mistakes, but they WILL capitalize on nearly every error by the Phins. Miami must make Seattle beat them without giving them extra help with the boneheaded play.
The Seattle run defense is the 2nd best in the NFL. They are fast and shut down sweeps and off-tackle runs. But, the Seattle did reveal a small weakness of over pursuit on zone stretch runs. They have great LBs, but only decent interior D-linemen and ends.Myles Gaskin is an excellent runner in zone stretch with the ability to cut it back on a dime and pick his way through traffic inside. Gaskin won’t have a great day, but if he can just be effective, it will be a huge positive for Miami.
The Big enchilada matchups
The run game and run defense is critical in building consistency, putting Maimi in manageable 3rd Downs and to keep Wilson off schedule, and punish a beat up and tired Seattle team. But, with Adams and Dunbar out and Griffin nursing a bum shoulder, Fitzpatrick throwing to Preston Williams, Mike Gesicki, and DeVante Parker will determine the game. Seattle will pick up chunk plays on offense, but in response,Miami must victimize the 32nd pass defense giving up 420 yards per game.
DeVante Parker has proved himself at every turn over the last two seasons. Playing on a bum hamstring and being effective was impressive. He wants to lead and be great. You can just feel it. This could be the game that elevates Parker to the next level!
The best pay per head review sites has dropped the spread to +5.5. I’m not a betting guy like Jimmy Bourbon… but, I’m smart enough to know that means something. The guys paid to get it right are a little getting nervous.
I don’t know…
… Maybe I’m wrapped up in aqua color Kool-Aid but I like the Phins chances to at least make it a game… if not win! Go Phins!!!
(posted this prior to the game… this new hosting site Jimmy switched to is messing with my posts 🙂 Posted but it doesn’t show… here we go post game )
Went back and watched the game one last time and then did some stat crunching. We did have the lead early, so that skews these stats a bit and Fitz ran 7 times… but, we ran the ball 36 times and threw 20 with a 8.0 per attempt with 6.4 completed air yards ranking him 14th best. Basically, all this says the gameplan was a ground game with intermediate passing. I expect this week to have a similar intention, but fewer runs and slightly deeper throws. Now, with they be able to pull it off? I do agree the passing game will drive the run game, but… I still see them being balanced… or at least trying to early. Crossing routes hurt the Seahawks secondary… I have a feeling the will use a nice dose of them and Gesicki beating Wright for a big play is something I could also see… big game, Stephen… excited and hope not to be disappointed.
MJ, the run game is the key as you said. However, I think the run will come off the pass. A similar game plan vs. the Jags needs to be implemented. Short, high % passes to our WR’s, TE’s, and RB’s. Make a beat up Seattle D play side line to side line, not just north and south! We need to make Seattle really feel the heat and humidity! Pressure on Wilson has to come from the interior, and our DE’s need to hold containment. I wonder if Flores is being coy about Byron Jones? Bellichick his mentor, was notorious for not being honest about game day injuries, so you can only hope Flores is being a little devious! A win would be great! For too long, I have watched a Dolphins team play a solid game one week, only to lay an egg the next! Our QB looks like Superman one week, and a dog the next! It’s time to start being consistent if we can this year! Hopefully the 10 days rest should help. Go Fins!!
(posted this prior to the game… this new hosting site Jimmy switched to is messing with my posts 🙂 Posted but it doesn’t show… here we go post game )
Went back and watched the game one last time and then did some stat crunching. We did have the lead early, so that skews these stats a bit and Fitz ran 7 times… but, we ran the ball 36 times and threw 20 with a 8.0 per attempt with 6.4 completed air yards ranking him 14th best. Basically, all this says the gameplan was a ground game with intermediate passing. I expect this week to have a similar intention, but fewer runs and slightly deeper throws. Now, with they be able to pull it off? I do agree the passing game will drive the run game, but… I still see them being balanced… or at least trying to early. Crossing routes hurt the Seahawks secondary… I have a feeling the will use a nice dose of them and Gesicki beating Wright for a big play is something I could also see… big game, Stephen… excited and hope not to be disappointed.
MJ, the run game is the key as you said. However, I think the run will come off the pass. A similar game plan vs. the Jags needs to be implemented. Short, high % passes to our WR’s, TE’s, and RB’s. Make a beat up Seattle D play side line to side line, not just north and south! We need to make Seattle really feel the heat and humidity! Pressure on Wilson has to come from the interior, and our DE’s need to hold containment. I wonder if Flores is being coy about Byron Jones? Bellichick his mentor, was notorious for not being honest about game day injuries, so you can only hope Flores is being a little devious! A win would be great! For too long, I have watched a Dolphins team play a solid game one week, only to lay an egg the next! Our QB looks like Superman one week, and a dog the next! It’s time to start being consistent if we can this year! Hopefully the 10 days rest should help. Go Fins!!