Kiko & McMillan Better Not Sleep On The Bills

McMillan & Kiko will be in the spotlight against Allen & McCoy

McMillan forced a turnover in Week 12, but he’ll need to do a lot more than that this week.

The Buffalo Bills offense isn’t conventional. They rank 31st in yards and points per game, so they aren’t good either. Their one strength is in rushing were they are ranked 17th with 114 yards on the ground per game… this isn’t a positive for Miami.

On defense, the Dolphins are giving up 398 yards per game with 6.3 yards per play. That’s near equal to being as bad as the Bills offense. Rush defense is Miami’s true Achilles heel. Against the run, the Phins are giving up 4.8 yards per rush and 139.8 rush yards per game.

Interestingly enough, they gave a near equal amount of yards on defense in 2016 with 4.8 YPC and 140 YPG. 

So after 3 years of development and investment, the Dolphins are the same defensive sieve as when Gase started.

The primary problem with the defense is the linebackers.

First, the LBs skillset doesn’t match the defense they are in.

It all starts with a scheme mismatch that highlights the weakness of the LBs. All three starters are sub-par at stacking and shedding. By design, Miami’s “Wide 9” alignment puts extra pressure on the interior of the defense demanding stout play from the D-Tackles and the Mike Linebacker.

Despite the loss of Suh, the Defensive Tackles aren’t the primary problem. They were a strength early on… until the loss of Vincent Taylor. The loss of Willam Hayes didn’t help things either. Davon Godchaux has been a solid anchor but Akeem Spence has seen his play drop over the course of the season. He wasn’t meant to get so many reps, so maybe that’s an excuse. What’s behind the starters on the DT depth chart isn’t good as both Hood and Williams are nothing more than placeholders.

Jordan Phillips would be much better than what’s there now. But that conversation is for another day… and will get much more juice after tomorrow’s game.

Yes, the D-line misses some run fits and don’t hold up against every double team… but the D-line is comprised of a bargain bin FA, a late-round pick, and two throw-aways.

BUT…

…At LB you have a 3rd and 2nd Round pick in Raekwon McMillan and Jerome Baker. With Kiko Alonso, you dropped back in the draft and received him as compensation and then spent big money to keep him. This is a lot of investment spent on this level of production.

Now…

Kiko makes mistakes, but he makes big plays too as all the pay per heads services like AcePerHead.com know. He’s fast, isn’t post-snap cerebral, can’t shed, and plays 110%. When you average his 3 seasons and pros and cons, he was a good pick up.

Baker has played very well for a rookie who’s light in the pants at only 215lbs. His speed and physicality give him a good upside. For the 3rd Round, he was a darn good pick up.

‘Broken record’ M.J. is sounding the McMillan alarm… again.

I said way back when in Preseason that McMillan would cost Gase if he didn’t improve. Gase kept jamming him in the line up despite his poor play… week after week. No doubt, McMillan has had some bright spots. His game against the Bengals was good, and he even had a forced fumble last week.

But the reality is the bulk of McMillan’s play is slow, lacks physicality, and is riddled with poor reads.

I don’t like him this week against Allen and McCoy… But I hope I’m wrong.

After watching Josh Allen you appreciate him like a poor man’s version of Cam Newton

Allen’s mobility, 2-3 big plays, and McCoy’s jump cuts are the only way Bills win on Offense. Of course, Miami could implode on offense and give the game away… that’s always a possibility.

The big plays will come downfield so the LB’s likely won’t be responsible. But Allen breaking out on scrambles and McCoy keeping the chains going will be directly on the LBs. Also, Bills run shallow crosses and Kiko and McMillan struggle against them. 

Bills run a ton of counteraction and boots and the Dolphins LBs like to bite on the first thing they see. This isn’t a good mix for a Dolphins win. Cameron Wake and Quinn will help limit this with their wide alignment. But Allen runs up the middle as well and the ends are bound to lose contain, so at some point, the LBs will need to pull their weight.

I like my chances with Kiko and more with Baker… McMillan, not so much.

McCoy seems to have slowed. The burst that once made him a special running back appears turned down a notch. He still has a nice jump cut and can bounce from one gap to the other and McMillan and Kiko get washed down the line a lot. McCoy’s ability to pop it back against the grain will create problems for Miami… unless history changes dramatically.

Gase needs this game to have a bulletproof shot at returning in 2019

Over the last couple of days, I’m more inclined to believe Gase and Co. will be back in 2019… unless there’s a total meltdown. They need this win against the Bills to ensure the survival of this regime. If Miami somehow implodes against the Bills at home a collapse could easily follow.

A total collapse would almost force Stephen Ross to fire Gase… almost. Firing Gase means he needs to admit that Tannenbaum was right to choose a veteran coach.

Fans need to get used to Gase and Co. in 2019. I’m already planning for my budget on booze for next year’s games to double… or triple.

I don’t expect a collapse against the Bills to happen… But, if it does, the linebackers, specifically McMillan, will play a large role in the upset. Gase recently said McMillan’s growth is ‘trending up’… So there’s nothing to worry about, I guess. Go Phins!!!

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