Landry on a Tightrope in Front Office Circus Act!

Landry tightrope walker
No one around PhinsNews will be surprised if Landry is playing elsewhere come August.
Outrage at Front Office incompetence, yes. Disappointment at losing a true talent like Landry, yes. Surprise, no. This circus is two years old and in it’s last act.
Me, myself, and I think that’s probably the single worst thing that could happen this off-season… short of Tannehill being lost again, of course.
I see Landry as a “generational” talent with the Dolphins. A talent so good that a team is lucky to even find one in a decade. That’s my not so humble opinion–backed up by his insane stat sheet. Of course, the best pay per head sportsbook services will tell you stats are nice but context, injuries, and personal lives play an even bigger role in his valuation. So let’s do our homework in that light.
Landry’s True Value: Context, Injuries, Personal Life
Injuries: Landry has a “perfect attendance” record through his first 4 years in Miami. SportsPredictor.com rates him at an 80% confidence level that he will miss zero games in 2018. That’s a very low risk level for a WR with his targeting record. Injuries? Check no.

Personal Life: The only thing of note in Landry’s personal life is an investigation of alleged domestic violence in April ’17. Both local Law Enforcement and the NFL concluded there was insufficient evidence. Knowing how hard the League has come down on it’s Personal Conduct Policy, that puts it to rest for me. Otherwise, there has been no known drug, DUI, PEDS, or other personal issues. South Beach has not been a problem. Personal? Check no.

Context. Now that’s a meaningful word. Landry is the ultimate “I get no respect” NFL Wide Receiver despite a record setting performance over his first four years. Miami’s offense relies more than ever on his ability to get open quickly and give the QB a quick, low-risk, chain-moving outlet. In spite of his repeated, proven performance, he’s still “JUST” a slot receiver in the minds of most NFL FO’s: Not a “TRUE” #1 WR…. and “slot” receivers don’t get #1 money. Or do they?

Context: If Landry is “JUST” a Slot Receiver, what does “SLOT” mean?

The “slot” is the space between the end of an offensive line and an outside Wide Receiver. The WR that plays in that space is the “Y receiver” and the outside WR’s are the split end “X receiver” and flanker “Z receiver”. In today’s pass laden offenses, the “Y” had become more and more decisive in win/loss outcomes than ever before. Landry lined up at the “Y” on 70 percent of his snaps last season, leading the Phins in both catches and receiving yards. His ability out of the slot gave “go to” reliability and security to every Phin’s QB. Undeniably, he was the heart and soul of Miami’s passing game. Unfortunately, even as the importance of the “Y” has increased, it has not translated, in most cases, to market value.

Context: Landry is a pro-bowl caliber slot/possession receiver. 
He is, unquestionably, the best “slot” in the NFL today, already holding records.  His stats consistently reflect high reception numbers matched by high total receiving yards. We all know he holds the record for most receptions in the first 4 years. But did you know he is so far beyond anyone else that he needs only 28 catches in ’18 to set the 5 year record as well? Moreover, when he gets the ball in an open field, he can produce yards-after-catch (YAC) rivaling the best RBs. The only meaningful knock on his production is the low, average-yards per-catch, which reflects his “slot” role in the offense.
Context: Landry is a team leader… and an emotional hothead.
He’s an alpha type leader and a spark-plug who motivates teammates. But he’s also a hothead who has almost certainly cost us games with stupid tantrums, costly penalties on the field, and a very public confrontation with Gase. Now simply ask yourself this. Is his proven on-the field production worth his hothead moments? Would you rather not have that production than tolerate his “moments? It’s all “context”, folks.
Context: Landry walked the “contract” tightrope” perfectly

As a 2nd round pick, Landry’s contract did not include a 5th year option. He made it clear early on that he wanted to stay in Miami, expected to be paid, and would play no contract “games”. In spite of his consistent, outstanding production, the Front Office has made a circus out of his contract negotiations. They didn’t make resigning him early a high enough priority. According to sources, he wanted too much money for a “slot”.

The Front Office bet Parker and Caroo would have “breakout years” and thus make Landry expendable. It didn’t quite work out that way. “Safe-space” Parker had another injury plagued season and Caroo has yet to show anything. That leaves Stills and Landry. In context, Landry played no negotiation “games”… no hold-outs, no press rants, no public demands… just let his agent and his production do his talking. With justification, he legitimately sees himself as a #1 wide receiver, not just a pro-bowl level slot receiver. He wants #1 WR money, $14.5 mil per year according to sources. Context: Check!

So what is Landry’s true value? To the Phins? To other teams?

No one, outside the Davie Trifecta, knows exactly what his true value is to the Phins. He’s obviously a major threat in their current pass offense. He’s also a legitimate punt return threat and offers valuable flexibility to play out of the backfield. His on-field tantrums and miscues have caused increasing problems with the coaches, but nowhere near what led Ajayi or the Turnstile Twins to be ousted. He’s a legitimately rare talent matched on the current roster only by that of Suh. He wants the money and the respect that he believes he has earned. He’s been a Pro-Bowl receiver for a lackluster Tannehill, Cutler, and Moore. But just imagine this: Jarvis Landry playing with Garoppolo, Luck, or even (choke on it) Brady.

Landry could have been signed last year at Phins friendly price

This time last year, the Phins had the cap room to offer Landry $11 mil a year on a 5 year contract starting in 2017. That’s $55 mil total over 5 years. Had they made such an offer, Landry likely would have taken it. Consider that, per sources, he is now asking for 14.5 mil per year. If you combine that X4 with his last year on the current contract, there is less than a 4 mil difference over the same span. We wrote about this last year and predicted the Dolphins predicament here . Given injury threat and guarantees, it’s almost certain he would have signed. Instead, the Phins kept him on his rookie contract. This year, with the threat of receiving no compensation if he left via FA, they Franchise tagged him on the first day he was eligible. Instead of Landry in ’17, they signed Cutler. How did that work out?

Front Office Gave Landry No Respect, Now The Piper Gets Paid

The Davie circus show is on. The problem–as usual–is that Suh’s contract makes paying Landry what he thinks he’s worth, much less the Franchise Tag price, almost impossible. Not without other cuts and contract restructures that will seriously hurt the team in different ways. The Front Office failed to take Landry seriously last year and is now paying the price.

PhinsNews predicted Miami would Franchise Tag Landry!

Here. We also took a quick look after the Phins tagged him here and what it might mean for the future. Miami, despite two years of off-on negotiations and now the non-exclusive Franchise Tag, has still not signed him to a new contract. Landry is in control here no matter what the Front Office thinks. He’s 25, in his prime, a repeat pro-bowl wide receiver and NFL record holder, and a proven, elusive YAC threat anywhere on the field. Despite wide spread speculation, I just don’t see any incentive for Landry to continue negotiations with Miami at this point. He can simply sign the tag, play the year, and hit FA again next year. Or negotiate a long-term deal with another team that Miami is compelled to accept… on his terms.

Legitimate contenders retain players they drafted and developed
I will be surprised if they retain Landry given the the way the franchise has handled their own past free agents that got to this point. They wait instead of getting them signed BEFORE THE CONTRACT EXPIRES… except for Kiko Alonso. Joy to the world for that.
Far  too often, that’s the way the Dolphins negotiate with their looming free agents. If they had negotiated early they might have been able to get them at a cheaper, fairer price. Yes, Clay, Miller, and Vernon’s Free Agent prices were bloated. Miami shouldn’t have signed them at that point. But there was likely no need for that point to ever come. Much like this circus like atmosphere of Franchise tagging a player everyone else knows they can’t afford and really want to trade… this situation was of the FO’s own making.
Franchise Tag or not, Landry remains in control of where he plays

The tag is non-exclusive. Once FA opens, he can negotiate with any team before he signs the Miami tender. The Front Office believes it can trade him once he signs the tender. There are a fair number of teams who should be willing to pay him and have the cap space to do so.

Now the question is, can Miami trade him for anything of real value greater that the likely 3rd round compensatory pick his FA loss would generate?

That’s gonna’ be a big, big story line.

No team is likely to sign him and give Miami something of value without first having negotiated a long-term deal with Landry that voids the Franchise tag contract. Again, Landry is in control here. He can test the FA waters at will. If he gets an offer that he likes, and Miami can swallow, then he signs the tag tender and the trade is made. But he does not have to sign any deal that Miami negotiates against his will unless he signs the Franchise tag first. And again, no team is going to offer a trade with Miami unless Landry is on-board with a long-term contract first. He can always simply sign the Franchise contract with Miami, take the 16 mil plus, buy injury insurance, and hit FA next year. There is no way that Miami will FT him a second time at what would then be a minimum of $20 mil. The ball is in Landry’s court, not Tannenbaum’s.


 

10 comments

  • Steve

    Leading to the Supper Bowl!
    October 31, 2017

    We’re far away from the 2018 NFL Draft, but the Eagles have now made six trades that affect their picks next year. The first was the trade to move up to the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, where the Eagles selected Carson Wentz. The Eagles will be without their second-round pick in 2018, as that is owned by the Cleveland Browns.

    The next trade was, of course, the deal that sent Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings, netting the Eagles a fourth-round pick, followed by the trade of Eric Rowe to the Patriots, which will become either a third- or fourth round pick.

    The Eagles will also be without their third round pick, which they traded along with Jordan Matthews for cornerback Ronald Darby.

    In a smaller deal, the Eagles traded Matt Tobin along with a 2018 seventh-round pick to Seattle for the Seahawks’ fifth-round pick in 2018.

    And finally, the Eagles traded a fourth round pick to the Dolphins for RB Jay Ajayi.

    Round How acquired
    1 Eagles’ own pick
    4 *Requires extensive explanation (see below)
    4 *Requires extensive explanation (see below)
    5 Eagles’ own pick
    5 (Acquired from Seahawks for Matt Tobin and the Eagles’ seventh-round pick in 2018)
    6 Eagles’ own pick

    Prior to the trade with the Dolphins for Jay Ajayi, the Eagles owned three fourth round picks. According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the fourth-round pick that will go to the Dolphins will be the second in order of those three picks, however it plays out.

    To recap, the three fourth round picks the Eagles hold are:

    Their own fourth round pick.
    The fourth-round pick acquired from the Patriots for Eric Rowe. To note, that pick will become a third-round pick if Rowe plays in at least 50 percent of the Patriots’ defensive snaps either in 2017.

    The Eagles will keep this pick if indeed it becomes a third-round pick, which is unlikely.
    The fourth-round pick acquired from the Vikings for Sam Bradford.

    Admin can the Fins learn anything here!

  • Steve

    Admin

    Just a note on how a good draft season should look.

    The NFL on Tuesday released the round-by-round order of picks in the 2018 draft, which starts April 26 in Dallas.

    The New Orleans Saints have the 27th pick in the first round and eight total picks. Here’s where the rest of their draft picks fall:

    third round: 91st overall pick.

    fourth round: 127th overall pick.

    fifth round: 147th overall pick.

    fifth round: 164th overall pick.

    sixth round: 189th overall pick.

    sixth round: 201st overall pick

    seventh round: 245th pick.

    The Saints had a spectacular 2017 draft, selecting the Offensive (Alvin Kamara) and Defensive (Marshon Lattimore) Rookies of the Year, an offensive tackle who played every snap (Ryan Ramczyk), a safety who was a Day 1 starter (Marcus Williams) and a linebacker who started until he was injured against the Miami Dolphins (Alex Anzalone). Defensive end Trey Hendrickson and Al-Quadin Muhammad also contributed.

  • Steve

    Hello Dol-Fans

    Before the Quinn deal is official, here is the Dolphins’ stock of 2018 draft picks:
    First round: No. 11 overall
    Second round: No. 42 overall
    Third round: No. 73 overall
    Fourth round: No. 107 overall, No. 121-128 (from Philadelphia, hinges on playoffs)
    Fifth round: No selection (traded to New Orleans for Stephone Anthony)
    Sixth round: No. 169 overall
    Seventh round: No. 199 overall (from Tampa Bay because of a 2017 draft trade), No. 203 overall

    As of now, here is the LA Rams Stock of 2018 draft picks.
    •Round 1 (No. 23)
    •Round 3 (No. 87)
    •Round 5 (No. 160)
    •Round 6 (No. 194, via Detroit)
    •Round 6 (No. 195, via Buffalo)
    •Round 6 (No. 196 or 209, via Kansas City)
    •Round 6 (No. 198)

    Just look at those sixth-rounders. The first came from the Greg Robinson trade as the Rams dumped the former first-round pick after adding Andrew Whitworth.

    Los Angeles received sixth-rounders from the Bills and Chiefs in the Watkins and Peters deals, giving the Rams their own sixth-round pick, as well as three others.

    Additionally, the Rams acquired a conditional 2018 seventh-round pick for Chris Givens in a trade three years ago, but they used it last year on Ejuan Price.

    Where are the Fins extra Picks?

    • admin

      Well, if you get a talented DE from 29 yrs old- 31 for a 4th that not bad. But I agree, they seem to be going hard on the now and not looking into the future. I really did like watching Quinn play… I also think they will deal Landry even if it’s for a 3rd and a late pick… they are broke.

  • Steve

    Hello Dol-Fans

    Robert Quinn Deal!

    Here is another questionable deal. Bottom line Quinn is costing the Dolphins a 4th rounder not sure if it will be the Dolphins 107th fourth rounder or their pick ((121st pick) from Philadelphia for the Jay Ajayi?
    The trading of the Dolphins (169th sixth rounder) not sure if the Phin’s are swapping LA Rams (no.196 or 209, via Kansas City)?

    Quinn may never return to the player he used to be. He’s still young player, but the Rams couldn’t afford to keep him around under his current contract. According to sportrac.com, Quinn was scheduled to make over $10.3 million in 2018 and over $11.8 million in 2019, which would have been the last year of his contract. He carried nearly a $12.4 million cap hit in 2018.

    At one point, the #Chiefs were pushing to trade for DE Robert Quinn, along with a draft pick. But sounds like now it’ll be just draft picks going over to KC for Marcus Peters.

    What’s next for the Rams? Since the Rams are in the midst of a successful youth movement, they could elect to draft a younger linebacker to fill Quinn’s shoes, or they could sign one in free agency.

    https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/2/17019804/robert-quinn-rams-trade-dolphins

    • admin

      I think he’ll be fine in a 4-3… I like the trade if it’s a 4th… especially if it’s the Vikes. My think is they are broke… and now with Quinn, even if they restructure his contract, they are broke. Add in the Tag of Landry…yikes. They must makes some very smart and big moves. Does this mean cutting Wake, Pouncey… extensions and restructuring? You can’t beat the deal for a 4th and swap. Watched Quinn in the PO game this year and he looked good to me. But what’s the play with all these DE’s? So many other holes. Forget about spending big on a G… I’m really excited to see what happens.. not sure I’ll like it though.

    • admin

      …If it is for a 3rd… shoot me.

  • Steve

    Admin

    Landry was a Miami Dolphins second round picked and Landry’s current day true value the Dolphins cannot really afford, Landry should bargain for top dollar even if it means a different team.
    But is there a possibility of a trade? What rounds and how many picks?

    The Dolphins have a dis functional operation and refused to Acknowledged it and many of the Fans are in this dream land with them. We watch the same problems each season and the same talked at the end of each season never getting fixed.

    What is worst than having a losing season with 6 wins and Broke. The answer is not going out purchasing more players the team cannot afford in money and trading away the Dolphins Future for these players. The Ideal situation is to be in the draft having 1st, additional 1st next season
    plus
    4 second round picks
    2 third round picks etc
    4 fourth round picks

    We don’t need any 6th or 7th rounders and this point.

    This Scenario is possible!

    • admin

      Just read this comment… funny I put some of this in my new article… we are on the same wavelength…

      • Brandon

        Landy just traded to the Browns for 2 picks according to NFL.com.
        They haven’t said what round the picks are for other than one pick is for this draft and the other for next year.