Leverage Will Be Lost In Landry Negotiations After Week 1
Leverage Will Be Lost In Landry Negotiations After Week 1
Landry’s self imposed Week 1 limit on negotiations does have ramifications
Landry’s negotiations have windows of opportunity on both sides
This article isn’t to say what will or will not happen with the future of Jarvis Landry and the Miami Dolphins–it’s all conjecture at this point.
It’s also not to say if he should or should’t be signed–we have not clue what the asking price is.
But, there is a matter being overlooked: the Miami Dolphins brass will miss a window of opportunity if they don’t extend Jarvis Landry‘s contract before Week 1.
Yes, Miami can put the Franchise Tag on Landry in 2018 for a value of roughly 15 million. This would theoretically give him a salary of about 8 million a season over 2017-2018.
That’s a bargain for Miami and a nice amount of cash for Landry… right?
Yes and no on Landry’s end.
I’d take a hundred K a year over the next two years and go laughing to the bank… perspective and context are keys to deciding if the price is right.
Landry future beyond 2018 gets dicey if he’s not signed before Week 1
But the reality is, a very valuable bargaining chip worth millions of dollars would be lost from the Dolphins side of the bargaining table if a deal isn’t done before Week 1.
First, by Miami missing this window of opportunity, they will find themselves on equal financial footing with every other team seeking Landry’s talents for 2019 and beyond.
Yes, Landry will be a Dolphins for the next two years. But when negotiations start in two years, what dollar advantage will Miami have over other teams at that point?
Yes, Florida has zero % tax rate–and that’s a nice edge.
But a team wanting his services could outbid Miami even with the tax advantage. Teams love to spend, and Miami will be forced to chase the highest bidder. See Olivier Vernon as a prime example.
So what’s this financial advantage being lost you might ask? The answer is 2017 and 2018’s salary.
Landry is making under a million dollars this season. Bottom line, a fair value for him would be at least 12 million. So, if you take into account, as said previously, his Tag in 2018, which equals out to 8 million for the next two seasons. That would be 16 million with the tag verse 24 million with an extension–roughly 8 tmillion less that could be in his pocket, if Miami were to do a new deal before the start of this season.
A pay increase this season could be a bargaining chip with Landry
So, let’s say you want to bid high at 15 million per season in 2019, a contract at that rate would be 75 million over 5 years.
Simply by letting Landry understand that he could have 8 million more in his pocket if he signs now, and then would also be ready for another huge contract two year sooner, they could offer 67 million over the next 5 years (13.3 million a season) and he would be ahead of the game verse if he waited two more seasons for a new long-term contract. Add in the zero tax rate, his love of the team, and maybe you could chop it down a little more… and Landry would still be ahead of the game compared to waiting till 2019.
Now, that would be a win-win on both sides.
But, if things go beyond Week 1, at the very least they lose the ability to bargain down his contract with a pay increase this season, even if they forgo the Tag and extend him in 2018. This doesn’t take into account the problem of what if he goes off and has his best season and raises the price tag with his play?
Only time with tell if Miami makes the right decision or not. But the reality is, the Dolphins influence over Landry’s decision to stay or go is slipping from their grasp. Crossing the line into Week 1 will be a window of opportunity lost… and might end up costing the Dolphins a lot more in the long run. Go Fins!!!
…afaik there is no limit on how many times the franchise tag can be used …both the rams and the redskins have used it on the same players in both 2016 and 2017 …so no loss of leverage if Landry is looking for a top 5 contract anyway
…the point here is that though the franchise tag would be north of 16 mil, its only for a year …if he doesn’t perform or gets injured, Miami is off the hook after the single year …if on the other hand, they extend him for 5 years at say 15 mil plus a serious guarantee, they are on the hook for at least the guarantee
…so, from a business perspective, if he is demanding top 5 contract money plus guarantees, its likely in Miami’s best interest to wait and franchise tag him next year and see what happens …if they can extend him now for significantly less, then they likely should
…but there are other factors …CAP being the major one …and what if TH has a breakout season …or Suh …or Parker …et al …its not just Landry in isolation that the FO has to consider
…nor does that consider what Gase thinks of his WRs going forward …will Landry remain their top receiver if the offense gels …is he even worth 15 mil in the overall team view
…I’m a fan, I’d love to see Landry win a SB with Miami …but not if his price makes doing that far more difficult …so its going to be an interesting week in phinland, eh
…Landry is likely looking at what is going on with Kirk Cousins and the Redskins where Cousins is making a lot more off the tag than any possible contract extension
…the downside risk is that he has a poor year or an injury …even a good year by him is likely going to be down stats wise if Parker breaks out …or Caroo …either getting hot would lower the times Landry is targeted …an injury is always possible but he has always been a very healthy player …so far
…I’d like to see him signed at less than 12 mil because of the cap impact it would have next year …but he has to look at how many years he has to play and how much his loyalty to the fins is going to cost him over the rest of his life
…best case for us is that they find common ground before the 26th … else this is going to become another soap opera over the next year and possibly more
He’d make more in a single season with a Tag, but over the course of 2 seasons it would be far less. Once the tag is put on, he won’t extend unless it’s a high end deal and in the long run Miami losses it’s leverage. After the Tag, Miami will be faced will teams flush full of cash and expectations. Will Landry still have good will after a drama? Enough to over come millions? As I said in the article they could extend him this year with about 13 mill a season or less and that would equate to 15 mill over the next 5 years. Far more for him than the tag and the budget rental this season and far less for Miami if they pay him 13-15 mill and run the risk of losing him in 2019. BUT, this is all contingent on Landry’s expectations. Is he looking for 15 plus? Is he betting his value will rise? Time will tell but after Week 1 THE financial leverage they possess is the tax break… nadda, zip, zilch after that. They have total power in 2018 and basically none after that.
…afaik there is no limit on how many times the franchise tag can be used …both the rams and the redskins have used it on the same players in both 2016 and 2017 …so no loss of leverage if Landry is looking for a top 5 contract anyway
…the point here is that though the franchise tag would be north of 16 mil, its only for a year …if he doesn’t perform or gets injured, Miami is off the hook after the single year …if on the other hand, they extend him for 5 years at say 15 mil plus a serious guarantee, they are on the hook for at least the guarantee
…so, from a business perspective, if he is demanding top 5 contract money plus guarantees, its likely in Miami’s best interest to wait and franchise tag him next year and see what happens …if they can extend him now for significantly less, then they likely should
…but there are other factors …CAP being the major one …and what if TH has a breakout season …or Suh …or Parker …et al …its not just Landry in isolation that the FO has to consider
…nor does that consider what Gase thinks of his WRs going forward …will Landry remain their top receiver if the offense gels …is he even worth 15 mil in the overall team view
…I’m a fan, I’d love to see Landry win a SB with Miami …but not if his price makes doing that far more difficult …so its going to be an interesting week in phinland, eh
…Landry is likely looking at what is going on with Kirk Cousins and the Redskins where Cousins is making a lot more off the tag than any possible contract extension
…the downside risk is that he has a poor year or an injury …even a good year by him is likely going to be down stats wise if Parker breaks out …or Caroo …either getting hot would lower the times Landry is targeted …an injury is always possible but he has always been a very healthy player …so far
…I’d like to see him signed at less than 12 mil because of the cap impact it would have next year …but he has to look at how many years he has to play and how much his loyalty to the fins is going to cost him over the rest of his life
…best case for us is that they find common ground before the 26th … else this is going to become another soap opera over the next year and possibly more
He’d make more in a single season with a Tag, but over the course of 2 seasons it would be far less. Once the tag is put on, he won’t extend unless it’s a high end deal and in the long run Miami losses it’s leverage. After the Tag, Miami will be faced will teams flush full of cash and expectations. Will Landry still have good will after a drama? Enough to over come millions? As I said in the article they could extend him this year with about 13 mill a season or less and that would equate to 15 mill over the next 5 years. Far more for him than the tag and the budget rental this season and far less for Miami if they pay him 13-15 mill and run the risk of losing him in 2019. BUT, this is all contingent on Landry’s expectations. Is he looking for 15 plus? Is he betting his value will rise? Time will tell but after Week 1 THE financial leverage they possess is the tax break… nadda, zip, zilch after that. They have total power in 2018 and basically none after that.