Give Tua at least a few weeks of tape before we begin to judge the kid
Quick to ‘love’ and quick to tear down is the motto of the media. Tua Tagovailoa was going to be a shining light in the NFL for years to come from what you heard. Now, after 22 pass attempts, some of the voices are saying he’s going to be a bust. The most notable flip is Colin Cowherd. Phinsnews prefers a more patient approach of letting a load of tape do the talking. So, here’s a thorough breakdown of Tua’s first start so we fans can begin–let me reemphasize BEGIN–to build our own case and opinion outside the hype cycle.
Context placed on a long pattern forms quality prediction
First, let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way: Tua’s first start was a letdown and mostly ugly. But, the context of this game is Tua was playing behind a below-average offensive line, hadn’t played football for almost a year, is coming back from a career-threatening injury, and had to deal with a negative media buzz for his coach’s poor handling of the transition at quarterback. Ohhh, he was also facing Aaron Donald who is the most destructive force inside since John Randle.
That’s a ton of adversity heading into your first game as a rookie…
… Then his first pass play was a sack and fumble as the cherry on top.
Yes, the kid was put on training wheels and protected, but he didn’t fold mentally. That’s a hugely positive sign. In fact, it’s the most important early sign because everything is built off mental toughness.
Now, I’m not saying all is peachy… or all is dire with Tua. I’m just stacking the tape and seeing what it presents.
Below is a very detailed breakdown of every pass. I had to cut it down three times because there was so much to talk about. I tend to ramble worse in audio than in writing BTW–if you can believe it. So, this is my “abridged” version:
Every pass (or close to it) of Tua against the Rams
A list of what we saw on film
Good arm strength and hints of high accuracy deep.
Strong accuracy when the throwing platform was disciplined. His throwing form when in this platform was exceptional.
Very fast release that will be a huge asset in the NFL.
Hot and cold when the platform was off and has a tendency to go off-platform when not needed. This led to many near interceptions.
Uncomfortable with pressure, even some phantom pressure reaction. Although some strong signs indicate he will grow out of this.
Plenty of rookie blues: slightly slow play diagnosis, chemistry off at times, first-game jitters.
High agility and accuracy to throw on the move.
More positives than real concerns, although…
The only real concern I had was his nervousness with pressure. Just about every other issue is highly correctable. Given Tua’s passion for the game, character, intelligence, and dedication, I’d expect him to improve just like Brady, Rodgers, and Brees did when they entered the NFL. This “skittishness” could lend credence to Cowherd’s point of Tua having a long history of being too comfortable behind powerhouse teams. But, I counter his point with the fact that Tua overcoming the mental hurdle of his injury is the primary problem right now. So, I’m not going to put a huge weight on this point… at least until a few more games come and go.
Overall, despite the numbers and the training wheels, there was plenty of good stuff on tape.
Now, this game will present a completely different challenge for Tua. Last week the prime issue for the rookie pass rush. This week it will a dramatically increased passing volume as the Phins try to keep up with the Cards scoring. Tua will certainly need to be much more of a factor this week, especially now that Myles Gaskins is out. This increased throwing volume will offer a key glimpse into who Tua is as an NFL QB. Maybe even more of a glimpse than the pass rush he dealt with against the Rams. But, no matter what happens, this is only Tua’s second game in the pros… so nothing is conclusive.
