Despite talent lost, Phins defense will be better in 2019
The Phins defense last season was terrible… just about the worst defense in the NFL.
This has been the trend for years.
In the 2013 Season, Miami moved on from presenting a flexible defensive front and went to a 43 scheme. After moving on from a hybrid 3-4 / 4-3 Defense, simplistic rigidity, along with diminished talent, has created some of the worst Dolphins defenses in team history.
Tom Olivadotti eat your heart out.
I expect Brian Flores to change this… but will he? And how long will it take to see tangible results? Two years? Three years?
The hope for many fans is a positive change will be obvious this year. But losing Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn from a ‘talent-deficient’ defense has many fans wondering if this will be the case.
Addition by subtraction: the defense was held back by a combination of factors
While there’s no doubt that talent is a major factor in football success, how that talent is used makes or breaks it, except in the most extreme case.
Hall of Fame players can find success in negative environments. But long-term team success can only be achieved through the teamwork of eleven players in a quality system.
The combination of a lack of talent and nuance, poor coaching, and weak offensive production has been the recipe to the Phins defensive flops.
Check out our thorough breakdown of the Dolphins run defense from last season’s game against the Texans here… if you can stomach the refresher.
So what will change in 2019 compared to 2018?
First, let’s set a baseline with the Dolphins defensive ranking in 2018:
- Rush Defense: 31st allowing 145.3 yards per game on the ground
- Points Allowed: 27th in points with 27.1 per game
- Pass Yards: 21st 245.8 yards allowed through the air
- Total Yards Per Game: 29th with 391.1 yards given up every game
- Forced Fumbles: 25th with 11 strips of the ball
- Interceptions: tied 13th with three teams with 13 pick
- Sacks: Tied for 5th with 3 three teams with 52 QB takedowns
Can you bet with the pay per head bookie software like AcePerHead.com that Miami will outperform this level in 2019?
Short answer: Yes! Pretty easily.
Now, I’m not talking Top 5 Defense… but substantial improvement will come for sure.
This improvement will be similar to what I wrote about last year on the Dolphins rushing attack. Underlying issues restricted the running backs in 2017, and once they were resolved, there was a strong increase in production.
So what’s this magic solution you might ask?
Consider the Dolphins rankings in 2018. Obviously, the stat that kicks you where the ‘sun shine’ is Run Defense. The compounding negative value of such an incompetent run defense is profound. It’s surprising that Miami didn’t rank worse in the other defensive categories.
Miami will improve in run defense this year for several reasons, and when they do, it will enhance every other aspect of the defense.
Reasons why this defense will improve their run stop
- Scrapping the Wide 9 concept as the scheme foundation will make a world of difference
- Scheme flexibility because the base concept now is the Fairbanks-Bullough 3-4
- 2-Gap responsibility is a primary technique v.s. last year’s upfield penetration
- Opposing Offenses must prepare for diverse looks
- Size upgrade on players in the box
- Players limitations won’t be exposed to job assignments
- Bend but don’t break philosophy will limit big runs
- Use of Big Nickel will limit RPOs and maximize Miami’s talented Safety group
- The influx of talent along the D-line (hopefully)
- Better coaching
After watching most of the Patriots defensive snaps from last season, they weren’t dominant, but they dominated key downs, grew over the season, played smart and consistent.
An example of their intelligent adaptability, the Pats opened the 2018 Season against the Texans with a 3-3-5 base to deal with the mobility of Deshaun Watson and went with a 4-2-5 to defend against the Zone Stretch run game of the Rams in the Super Bowl.
Talk about using the right tool for the job.
This wasn’t an ultra-talented defensive unit. The Pats were ranked 11th against the run, 22nd against the pass, but 7th in points allowed.
Run defense was a major factor in putting the defense in good situations.
While I don’t expect similar rankings in 2019 in run defense and point allowed, adjustments in philosophy, technique, concepts, and scheme will pay dividends over the course of the season.
The Wide 9 with the talent Miami had and a raw Defensive Coordinator was an awful recipe. By changing the formula to a competent one, Miami will return to a competent defense this season. Will it get better than that? Now that’s the great unknown. Let’s hope. Go Phins!!!
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