Odds Makers Offer Another Year Of No Respect
After years of terrible play, respect won’t be had easily
Respect is earned, not given willy-nilly in life or in sports.
Respect is something the Miami Dolphins have had little of this century–and for good reason–with only 6 winning seasons in the last 17 years… and that’s counting the four winning seasons of 2000–2003.
However, with Miami accomplishing it’s first double-digit win season and playoff appearance since 2008 last season, there was hope that maybe the perception had changed?
Despite Coach Adam Gase had the Dolphins on the right track of culture change, the NFL Odds and the best pay per head reviews are expecting same-ole’, same-ole’ for 2017.
Regular Season win predictions for next season are out, and once again, Miami is getting no respect.
Last year the Dolphins Regular Season win total was over/under 7, and this upcoming season’s Regular Season win total is over/under 7.5 with the juice favoring the over at -130.
So basically after all we did last year, and all we did this off-season, the oddsmakers think we are only a half a game better than last season. Also, based on all the other AFC team’s Regular Season win totals, Miami is predicted to not make the playoffs.
Back-to-back Winning Seasons Might Earn Miami some Respect
In addition, the odds to win each division are out as well, and there was no surprise, New England is a -550 favorite to win the AFC East Division.The Dolphins are the next closest at +500 followed by the Bills at +600 and Jets at an abysmal +3000. Also, the Patriots over/under total is 12.5 with the juice favoring the over at -125 (that is the highest in the entire NFL by a full 2 games). The Bills over/under is 6 with the juice favoring the over at -130, and the Jets over/under is 5.5 with the juice favoring the under at -145.
So, long story short, the oddsmakers are not putting much faith into what the Dolphins did last season and see it as an anomaly, rather than the beginning of a winning trend. The Dolphins opponents are tougher this season, but it’s in their hands whether they flip the script again. It’s rare that the money men get it wrong two years in a row. What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins news fans’ thoughts about whether or not Miami can prove the oddsmakers wrong and win more than the predicted 7.5 games next season?
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I’M going to say the odds makers are wrong a second year in a row. I think that with the improved roster there should be 9 wins. Look folks, we have a REAL coach now. The drafting is still under scrutiny and we’ll be able to judge that in year three. There is much reason for optimism.
That is my anchor of belief too Fritz: Gase. He has proven with last year he can do good things. This year will prove whether he can do it regularly. Of course, the talent acquisition side of the regime with either help him or hinder him. Fritz I do believe in Gase, but as Lemmus points out Gase made a wrong move in relying on Thomas and Turner last year… there are some caveats to that mistake, but even the elite coaches are fallible, so he isn’t perfect. But I trust in his leadership more than any coach since Jimmy and look forward to seeing him shock the world again. 9 wins seems like a fair total.
In Gases’ defense Thomas and Turner were not his guys, as a matter of fact they were more Tannebaum’s guys (not directly) than anyone left (Grier, etc). So he kept them on until proven other wise. Well, otherwise did not take long and Gase made the moves regardless of the depth, and he made due with what he had. That is only part of the reason Gase looks to be the real deal!!!
I agree totally there were qualifiers, but bottom line is bottom line: He should have made that decision earlier and asked for different players. Since they were cut, just about anyone would have been better… and they could have found players post draft that would have contributed more. I’m not crucifying him. It was one of the very few moves that didn’t work out. But I try to be as objective as I can and only break out my pom-poms on game day. Writing like a Fan makes for a lot of foot eating, unless you’re a Pats Fan writing about your team. 🙂
My fan replys/references may seem that way, maybe I’m blind to it, but I try to keep them as valid as possible with facts to support my claims/beliefs. Either way I get my daily Dolphin fix speaking with you fellas. So I want to thank all of you, as we share the same desire for our beloved Fins!!!
Wow! Before the world wide web, my parents would get me the Dolphin Digest subscription for Christmas to help with my Dolphin fix, and it would be the first class package so I could receive them before the next game. Boy do I miss the 80’s!!!! 😉
I don’t see you or Lemmus as blind …far, far from it. I just see leanings. I try to fight being negative or positive, don’t think I’m 100% successful at it either. I just do my best to be as objective as possible. When I came on to Phins, Jimmy was sort of a believer in the Philbin regime… I wasn’t. We had some brush up articles against each other. Jimmy is more of a Fan type writer… and that has proven to be successful at times, and enlightening, and pulled me from the negative leaning more to the center. I’m a blind nut on game day, but in my projection I try to be pragmatic. Every perspective has wisdom to offer… and all together (left, right, and center) is essential.
It has been this way for awhile now. Deserving, probably! Valid, not so much!
Are we are better team on paper this season going in than we were last year? You better believe we are. Why, one because of the roster, the roster is much better, and deeper than last years. There are not as many question marks as last year; as a matter of fact, the only question mark may be the guard position (singular not plural such as last year).
Yea I now there could be a question as too who will start along side Jones at safety, but that will only be till week 9 when McDonald steps right in (no doubt, and I predict now that Miami gives McDonald a new “keep your own” contract at the end of the season).
How about the return of injured players such as Jones and Pouncey and their impact (huge).
How about the familiarity of the scheme, coaches, and for the first time in forever no need to install a system or adjust to a new staff of coaches, don’t under estimate that importance.
I know they say we have one of toughest schedules, the same was said last year at this time. I may be the only one that likes our schedule from a competitive stand point.
The over/under last season was 7. This season it is 7.5, really? A half a game improvement from last season after all the injuries, 30th ranked “D”. All those will improve, which undoubtedly equate to more than a half a game improvement.
Take the OVER boys and by week 11 you can run to the bank and deposit your winnings.
I can see your side and I can see Lemmus’. I think last year IF was a primary point and it is again this year. I have far more trust in this staff than last year, so I lean towards your side. I believe in coaching. I think in football coaching has it’s highest level of effect in all the major sports. Top of the food chain is Bill, then Carrol and then Arians. The next level is the Harbaughs of the world… good, but not great. They need better talent, but can still coach up. I see Gase as entering into this realm. Miami has a harder schedule, but better talent, and as you said, more set in the system. So I see hope beyond Miami’s warts. Guys like the Bill’s of this world can turn 1.6 mill in salary of 2 G’s and a C and win a ring… Gase needs to show a lot to fall into this level, and I’m not crazy enough to say he can match them. Lemmus has a point here. Gase believes… we have hope… Lemmus is a wait and see stance. His point is the most rational. But, my hunch is this staff is better than we realize and has the ability to coach up players and put together a team that plays bigger than what appears on the stat sheet. Again, we’ll see.
…I wish I could be like Dun the Cheerleader, really …but I’m and old school Randian and favor rational objectivity too much
…we have TWO G slots in question, not one …Asiata may start but only because he sucks less than the alternatives …I’m not into casting fifth round picks as “the answer” at any position before they’ve proven to be such …not going to waste any breath on Larsen/Bushrod/Urbik/Steen
…Pouncy remains a question despite the PR push …he’s had three straight years of deterioration in play time and production …when he’s healthy, he’s good …but despite the hype, I have strong doubts he plays anywhere close to 16 games …and we have no depth at the position …if you want to argue that, just look at Ajayi’s production when Pouncy was out
…James has been up and down …in a year where his option was up for grabs, he played hooky for a significant part of the season …now that his option was picked up, where is the motivation coming from this year? …big question for me
…Tunsil is moving to LT …he should be above average or better there but the proof will be in the pudding
…so we have another year where our entire OL remains a huge question, not just one lousy G slot …this is where cheerleading takes us …much prefer reality
…overall, IF the OL improves, and IF the new TEs produce more, our offense should put more points on the board, both pass and rush …but I still see the OL as a huge question mark
…Harris/McMillan should improve our LB corps but we don’t have a real clue yet if either can earn a starting position …Misi is not going to be shunted aside if he proves the better starter and Timmons may/may not be the savior at MLB that we’re all counting on …and keep in mind that Alonzo was ok inside in the 4-3 last year but we’re asking him to move again …maybe that works, maybe it doesn’t
…the DL still starts the same group from last season with the exception of Hayes …unless of course Harris moves to DE and earns a start there …but I don’t see him doing that out of the box so I’m wondering where all the defensive wonders are going to come from …the new DC?
…we’re still weak at S and hoping Howard improves at CB …no question having Jones back is a big plus but he’s only one man in an otherwise average at best DB group …Brady is still going to dine on them
…so yes, our defense should improve somewhat if the LB corps shakes out …but I question how much we improve? …30 – 20 is a big improvement but is it enough to win 2 or more games for us?
…keep in mind that the margin of victory in most of our games last season was very thin and our schedule this season is, out of the box, significantly harder …yes that will change as games are played but the odds are at least as much in favor of it worsening that improving …we have a better bye but then we also have a London game with a short turnaround
…last year I said here that we’d start 0-4/1-3 and Gase would figure it out by the 5th game, which turned out to be a good call, but I certainly didn’t see 10-6 …this year I think we start better but finish worse unless some rookies surprise me …and I hope they do
…one other comment on Gase …while true that the turnstile twins were not drafted on his watch, he had multiple years of film on them and could of cut them as soon as he watched it …instead he praised them and said multiple times that all they needed was more work in the weight room …it took him 4 ugly games to admit he was dead wrong in that assessment …so please don’t ask me to give him the benefit of the doubt when it comes to player evaluation …I’ll believe the results on the field, not the hype
Lemmus,
Before the draft I read up on Asiata and thought that if the Phins did not take Lamp at 22 that Asiata was the next viable option. He had a 3rd round grade and should have been gone by the 4th round. He is BETTER than a 5th rounder.
Tunsil moving to LT is definitely an upgrade over Albert. Tunsil’s athleticism says he is the REAL deal.
Now, Gase started with the turnstyle twins (as you most ably called them) but eventually admitted his mistake and cut bait. I call that learning on the fly. Gase will be better in his 2nd year and his 3rd and 4th etc.
The Oline may still be a question mark but it is NOT a huge question mark. The defense is a bigger question but even then, you could argue that it is going to be BETTER than last year’s. Free agent signings and draft has addressed the most glaring defensive issues.
Whereas I acknowledge your concerns, I do believe that you are being a bit too negative. I see this year’s Phins as being a better team even if they only win 9 games. Cheers!
Too me, the biggest question mark on the OL Fritz is Pouncey and depth at T. Due to the one stretch we run a C who can get to the second level is crucial. At this point, only Pouncey can do it. The others C’s are more suited to man block at C, or to use G’s to get to the second level. But using the G’s can cause blocking unbalance and make the pick ups harder. So if Pouncey is there, we will have a good line… if not, it won’t be nearly as effective. Then there is Sam Young. I was very surprised in how well he performed as a starter. Can he do it again? Or for long stretches? I’m a bit more concerned than you. But Asiata looks like he will do very well and I think he could be a tremendous pick up. I’m starting to really like your 9 wins prediction.
Below is a piece of an article via Bleacher Report on “Surprise Impact Rookies” that may make some feel more at ease with our Guard situation (I cut and pasted Asiata, as there were 10 rookies referenced):
Issac Asiata one of 10 surprise rookie impacts, Per Bleacher Report:
Big. Mean. Nasty. Physical.
All of these words can be used to describe Miami Dolphins guard Isaac Asiata, and they’re all reasons he should be counted among the team’s starting front five during his rookie campaign.
“I love being here and I’m a very cheerful guy, but don’t get it twisted,” Asiata said after being drafted in the fifth round, per the Palm Beach Post’s Hal Habib. “When it’s time to put the helmet on and strap it up and go, that’s not me anymore.
Asiata isn’t a typical rookie. He’s 24 years old, married and served an LDS mission after redshirting as a freshman. His game isn’t typical, either. The 6’3”, 323-pound lineman displays the ability to overwhelm defenders at the point of attack, yet he’s nimble enough to regularly pull from his guard position, locate defenders on the hoof and provide devastating blocks in space.
The Utah product is also extremely strong. He tied Auburn’s Carl Lawson for the most reps (35) on the bench press at the NFL combine. But it’s his on-field mentality that everyone seems to love.
“On the field, he’s a nasty prick,” Dolphins general manager Chris Grier said after drafting him in the fifth round, per the Post’s Joe Schad.
Since the Dolphins built their identity around a big, physical offensive line for Jay Ajayi to run behind, Asiata fits the mold.
The Morris Trophy winner as the Pac-12’s best offensive lineman fell in the draft due to health concerns regarding one of his knees, according to Draft Analyst’s Tony Pauline. But the Dolphins organization once took a similar chance on Ajayi, and it worked out nicely.
With only veteran Ted Larsen standing in Asiata’s way, the Dolphins coaching staff should lean toward starting the bigger, more physical lineman at left guard.
Majority of your points are valid Lemmus. These were the same reply’s from us both last year, although I didn’t have many facts to back them up last year; however, the facts (most) are there this year, and anything but ANOTHER playoff berth will be disappointing.
Gase kept the two OL because he believes he can coach anyone up, not in their case, if remember he cited their practice habits when cut. Those 2 OL are not on him one bit, and it was Gase that continued to set the tone throughout the building/locker room with such moves.
How about J-Train???? We all had him getting cut or traded when he was left home week 1. Look what he turned into, a direct result of Gases’ coaching.
All are unknowns, thats what makes this time of the season so compelling. No one is wrong and no one is right.
I do know that we are in a much better place than we have been in the last decade!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂
I do see Dunner as glass half full, but I also see you as half empty. Given the recent history of Miami, half empty seems more rational, but given 2016, Dunner’s seems more proper trajectory. Reality is only Gase can make this ship sail to success at this point. They have tremendous talent in several areas, and mediocrity and lack of depth in the rest. No unit has a bulls-eye on it like the OL. One of my concerns that’s not talked about is depth a tackle. I think James will have a very good year and Tunsil as well in his pass blocking. But Young is the only quality back up and that concerns me as both Tackles have missed time. Then there is the well talked about interior line. So Gase and Tannenbaum are on the hook for how it pans out. Like Fritz, I like Asiata a lot. I do believe in the stem cell procedure on Pouncey and a full rest can get one more year out of him. But until it materializes it just talk. Now, like your 1-3 call on the start, if it does materializes, then it’s a feather in your cap.