Oddsmakers Lower Expectations Post Draft

Oddsmakers are now giving Phins fans even less hope in 2019

Phinsnews Jimmy Bourbon wrote last month about oddsmakers predictions the Dolphins 2019 Season. The long and sort of these odds are: Chris Grier and Brian Flores’ inaugural season won’t be a good one…

… unless you are hoping for a top pick in the 2020 Draft.

So, whether the ‘tanking talk’ was real or not, the oddsmakers see an utter disaster coming for the Phins. According to their first prognostication last month, Miami was slated to be dead last in the league with only five wins.

Now their post-draft odds are predicting even less wins for the Miami Dolphins.

At this point, if Phins fans take this talk as gospel, then a near ‘2007 type’ abomination is coming. Vegas is predicting the Dolphins will be the worst team in the league by one full game with 4.5 wins for the season.

In fact, the Dolphins are predicted to be a full 2 games worse in their division than the Bills, 3 games worse than the Jets, and 6.5 games worse than the Patriots.

The Bleacher Report upped the ante with a record of 3-13.

Patriots and Dolphins are expected to be polar opposites in 2019

If this ends up the case, then Josh Rosen will get some strong competition for his spot in 2020…

… BUT …

… While I’m sober about the reality of the situation, we should hold our horses on these doom and gloom prognostications until we get to see the staff and squad in action.

These abysmal predictions getting tossed out there are ingraining a low floor and ceiling for this new regime in the public consciousness. The get out of jail card is in place. Any success above this will be considered a big ‘win’ in optics.

Also, for some positive spin, this low bar provides great lockerroom motivational material and removes any external pressure. But these are minute factors for the on the field equation at best.

So will Miami actually rise from the bottom of the barrel… or will they be ‘who pay per heads thought they were’?

Breaking down the current situation for this Dolphins team

Miami posted a 7-9 record in the 2018 Season. But the context of that record is they had a few miracle wins and total collapses that skew the ‘genuineness’ of this number. Given Miami’s level of play in 2017, the ‘pulling wins out of their rear end’ last season was less of who they actually were than the collapses. Of course, Miami also had an obscene amount of injuries that took a negative toll as well.

Still, the ‘true quality’ of the 2018 Dolphins team was closer to a 5 win team than a 7 win team.

In a vacuum, this would lend credence to the oddsmakers estimations…

Factors in the failure of the 2018 Season

• Lack of depth and talent at quarterback
• Lack of depth team-wide
• Inability to stop the run
• Lack of pass rush
• A gross amount of injuries
• Inability to convert 3rd Downs
• Inability to stop 3rd Down conversions
• Divide between coaches and players
• Poor schemes
• Poor decision making in critical situations by players and coaches

Often cited ‘factors’ for Phins coming disaster in 2019

• The loss of Wake and Quinn and their 12.5 sacks will cripple a weak pass rush.
  
• Lack of upgrade at the Defensive End position.
  
• Strong additions of Defensive Line talent in Buffalo and New York.
  
• Offensive Line has become a bigger question mark with the loss of James.
  
• Former coach Adam Gase running a division opponent.
  
• The new regime is getting installed and building with a younger roster along with all new schemes.
  
• ‘Tougher’ schedule than 2018.
  
• Chances are slim that they get that many last-second wins again.

My counters to these factors

• Wake’s departure is a loss, but the scheme and employment of stunts will compensate and at least equal last year’s production.
• Miami upgraded their QB situation in depth (and likely quality as well) with Fitzpatrick and Rosen are now in a passer-friendly offensive system.
• Better scheme and QB situation will create less 3rd and longs and with more manageable situations the 3rd success % will increase.
• Better run defense will create more 3rd and longs for opposing offenses and create more sacks
• Gase is a known quality to Flores and Gase appeared to have very little knowledge of his defense when with Miami.
• The young regime has Caldwell to reduce their ‘greenness’.
• 1st Year between coaches and players is almost always a honeymoon of zealous play.
• Removal of Wide 9 is a huge plus.
• Injuries being as high as they were over the last two seasons is statistically unlikely.
• The offensive scheme is designed to be O-linemen and QB friendly.

The questions that do puzzle me

The on the field key to this season is the Offensive Line. While there was only one blue-chip lineman picked with Michael Deiter, Miami has quietly bolstered this unit with acquisitions likes of Deion Calhoun, Isaiah Prince, and Chris Reed. I like the competition and depth, although the talent level doesn’t pop off the Depth Chart. And even if they surprise with their talent, this unit will be green and working to find chemistry.

But due to the new scheme, upgrade of quarterbacks, depth in the unit, and move towards power football, my belief is growing that this unit will be better than 2018… even if the upgrade is just a notch.

The great unknown quantity that everything rests on is the coaching and evaluation skills of the staff. Beyond Jim Caldwell, there’s little evidence to firmly base a positive stance on. Brian Flores did coach a marvelous game and season as the Patriots Defensive Coordinator, but the shadow of Bill Belichick looms over his accomplishments.

The concepts of ‘multiples’ and flexibility are timeless philosophies of war. But they are only effectively utilized by elite generals. This staff will either flop or shine… and the 2019 Season rests on their acumen.

The dose of sobriety in sweet, sweet high of hope

Now I’m in no way saying this team is poised to light the league on fire. But, Vegas doesn’t have a real bead on all these new players and Flores and his staff. This unknown might catch the money guys off guard. The odds are low that this team will underperform these dour predictions. They can’t get much lower, now can they? The 2007 Dolphins were far more ‘special’ than this group. So don’t see a repeat of that ‘quality of play’.

Odds are Miami over-performs this low watermark… albeit slightly.

My early ‘out of the ether’ prediction is 7 wins this year with a more stable team than 2018. While this doesn’t sound ‘super-duper’, a team of this caliber will turn the 12 picks and $100 million in Cap space coming in 2020 into rocket fuel. Go Phins!!!

An M.J. P.S.: Facebook is doing some weird stuff with my replies to your FB comments. They disappear again and again… even old comments have vanished. I despise Facebook, and this is the final straw. I’ll reply to all comments in the comment section as always, but given this annoyance… FB comments might not be replied, due to forces beyond my understanding.