Phins’ Offensive Line will determine the outcome of the 2018 Season
The Offensive Line makes everything better or worse…
Plain and simple: So goes the Dolphins Offensive Line, so goes the season.
No unit is more critical than the Offensive Line. None! Blockers make or break QB’s, WR’s, and RB’s. The ‘Big Uglies’ success even affects the other side of the ball. Time Of Possession gives crucial rest to the Defense. No unit in the game of football has near the broad-ranging effect on the team as the O-Line.
Miami has dropped huge amounts of money and quality picks on the O-line over the last decade-plus. For the most part, these moves meant to improve the O’s trench play have instead ended in disaster. If you distilled why the Phins have lacked consistency and success on the field down to one reason, a fair one would be because of terrible O-Line play.
This year, the Dolphins Brass finally decided to address the interior Offensive Line with a complete shake-up at every position.
Will these moves end up winners or another series of letdowns? And if they are positive moves, how much effect will it have on the Phins 2018 Season?
‘Once Bitten, Twice Shy’:
Many fans and sportswriters are extremely leery about giving this Offensive Line a thumbs up. Given the Dolphins history, you can’t fault the doubt. But, considering 3 major factors (consistency, talent, depth), I will stand front and center: “There will be a noticeable bump up in production in the O’s trench play in 2018.”
Don’t think ‘crazy me’ is alone. PFF predicted sizable improvement nine spots to a 20th rank.
Okay, let’s take a quick look at last year’s OL stable.
Phins 2017 O-Line suffered setbacks on nearly every front, earning a PFF rank of #29
** Right Guard was also manned by Jesse Davis for 6 games
*** Left Guard was also manned by Anthony Steen for 6 games and Jesse Davis 2 games
**** Right Tackle was manned by Sam Young for 4 games and Jesse Davis for 2 games
Right off the bat, the inconsistent lineup would have caused most O-Lines to struggle. Also, Tunsil moved to Tackle, and Larsen, Steen, and Davis were playing new positions / spots as well. ‘Ugly play’ was built into the DNA of the 2017 OL.
Phinsnews last article spoke about Miami’s ‘all-world’-bad’ run blocking of 0.59 yards before contact. Let me say it again: Runners had A FOOT-AND-A-HALF beyond the LOS to work with! Yes, Miami was actually doubled by 30th ranked Colts with 1.06 yards before contact. The toll on the running game, and by extension the whole team, from this continual limit of ‘free space’ was devastating.
No matter how much passing is ‘helped’ along with the rules, the run game will always be key in the NFL. Offensive consistency comes from limiting penalties and turnovers and an effective run game on 1st Down. Consider the average yards before contact in 2017 was 1.56, this ugly number of 0.59 offers great hope for 2018.
Even average performance would have netted Miami 325 more yards on the season with their 325 carriers. That amounts to at least 4 games of rushing given Miami’s 2017 standards! How many 1st Downs, lost drives, and squandered TOP was lost is unquantifiable. But without a doubt, it would have been significant.
Before we move on let’s look at the personnel of the 2018 Offensive Line…
*Davis played LT, LG, RG, and RT throughout the course of the 2017 Season
Miami did rank 6th in pass blocking efficiency and 4th in the least amount of pressures by PFF. This was a true bright spot of 2017. We can only hope it continues. While Mike Pouncey was a terrible run blocker, his pass protection only allowed 12 pressures all season. But the combination of Sitton and Kilgore will more than offset Pouncey and the ‘turn-style next to him’.
The run game is where the biggest difference will be felt…
Sitton was ranked by PFF 5th in run blocking and Kilgore 18th. Compare that production with Pouncey’s 30th and Larsen’s 73rd and it’s easy to see how that 0.59 will get a boost.
Pouncey struggled with powerful interior defenders and this seriously hurt Inside Zone plays. Kilgore isn’t the pass blocker Pouncey is, but he can better deal with power. Also, Sitton and Davis are equally capable at blocking Inside and Outside Zone scheme’s, so Miami will be more flexible and create a deeper pocket beyond the LOS for runners to work with.
Speaking of the running scheme…
…Gase favors Inside Zone, but Jay Ajayi’s love of Outside Zone moved the play call meter. After Ajayi’s departure, the meter moved back. This trend will likely continue in 2018. Most NFL teams use Inside Zone more because it’s easier to find players to run it and it’s easier to execute. Outside Zone, like Atlanta, almost demands a highly talented run blocking center… and it can be hit or miss. With the new personnel and more Inside Zone, Miami will be more consistent–as well as effective–in the run game.
Let’s consider the depth and O-Tackle play.
Tunsil can’t play any worse than he did in 2017. Given Tunsil’s talent, move outside, and terrible play from the Left Guard, he’s certain to play better in 2018. Also, he missed a huge portion of the 2017 Training Camp with a personal issue. No one can say how much better he will play this season. But even a small increment will make a big difference on that 0.59 number.
Lastly, Dolphins finally have solid depth at the O-line. This is big because injuries are coming. Young, Larsen, and Brendel are excellent backups. All three have proved they can handle the job. This doesn’t include the ‘wildcards’ of Issiac Asiata, Zach Sterup, and Eric Smith. If any of these players can step up it will be the cherry on top. I really liked Smith’s play in the Preseason last year. Smith is a good bet with the pay per head services to be Phinsnews 2018 Adopted Player of the Year. If you’re a film head, go back and study last Preseason. His play popped off the tape. He was certain to make the roster before the injury.
There are so many stats and performances that will be important to pay attention to this season. But yards before contact will be the one I pay attention to most. Titans Week 1, will offer a very good indication right out of the chute. Titans allowed the 4th least rushing yards with 88 yards per game in 2017. So this 1st game will be a big test. I’m not saying to expect a 200-yard game on them. But they will do better than 3.1 YPC and 0.59 YBC. And if they do, good things are coming in 2018.
Today we lost a member of the Dolphins family
On a final note, Tony Sparano has passed away. He was just 56 years old. Whatever you think about his time in Miami, he cared for his team and his team cared for him. He did his best with a raw deal. Coach Sparano most importantly was a good family man. Phinsnews offers it’s deepest condolences to his family and friends. Thank you, coach, for all the joy you brought us.