Phins Draft: Factors To Consider

The Phins Draft will be about getting players that fit their concepts and philosophies

Whether due to joy or rage, how many times have you lost your mind over a selection in a Phins Draft?

You can bet with the pay per head services that Dolphins fans will experience a little of each this draft.

That’s the price of fandom: overreaction.

I’m sure I’ll be among them…

… But, keeping a few things in mind will keep you from destroying the T.V. screen—too expensive — or prevent ‘premature celebration’ — the tinge of shame afterwards often outweighs the quick gratification.

Keys to maintaining perspective after each pick

1) The totality of talent over the whole the player acquisition period

The Dolphins will miss both long term and short term on some of their choices. The reality is even the Patriots miss on Draft Day… a lot. But the Pats compensate with some big hits in Rounds 1-3, doing very well in Round 4, and by finding players post draft with UDFAs.

Here a list of picks by the Pats over the last 5 years that have contributed less than their price tag :

• Isaiah Wynn, T, 2018, Round1
• Duke Dawson, CB, 2018, Round 2
• Derek Rivers, DE, 2017, Round 2
• Antonio Garcia, T, 2017, Round 2
• Cyrus Jones, CB, 2016, Round 2
• Vincent Valentine, DT, 2016 Round 3
• Geneo Grisso, DE, 2015, Round 3
• Dominique Easley, DT, 2014, Round 1

These are a lot of big misses that were compensated by Round 4 hits with the likes of DE Flowers, DE Deatrich Wise Jr., G Shaq Mason, RB James White, and by a long list of undrafted contributors.

Consider these draft with the quality of the drafts over the last three seasons… Miami has fared well

2) ‘Immeasurables’ are primary factors in drafting players

Watch the clip at the 9:20 mark for an inside glimpse into Brian Flores’ talent evaluation considerations.

High talent players that don’t perform in key situations or have high production against inferior opponents have limited value… if this regime is influenced by Belichick. So skimming measurable or the stat lines won’t give much sign as to Miami’s interest in a player… unless they can have the player at a bargain basement price.

Also, common prototypes of size and speed won’t be adhered to dogmatically. Consider, 6’2” DE Trey Flowers, 6’2” T Isaiah Wynn, and 6’1” G Shaq Mason as players with unconventional physical makeups who Belichick took a chance on.

3) ‘Parcells size fixation’ is back on defense… as is Belichick’s leverage considerations

As stated above, Belichick has given leverage over height a strong push towards being the new trend. Players like 6’2’’ DE Trey Flowers and 6’2’’ G Shaq Mason, among others, have demonstrated size is trumped by leverage. The road is obviously harder to win on leverage and technique. Size is a simpler metric to judge and to use on the field. But ultimately, leverage and technique is the more potent quantity.

Remember your science class using a fulcrum?

This is a far departure from Bill Parcells iron clad size fixation that Belichick grew from.

Still, Belichick doesn’t hate size, especially on his defensive front. So expect big ends, Linebackers, and tackles, but not necessarily tall ones. PFF doesn’t value the run game or run defense much… but Belichick does. Flores will have a very similar value system.

This is one reason I don’t see us drafting a Top Rated speed rushing DE’s in Round 1.

4) Pick Volume is the backbone of the talent acquisition process

Fans welcome extra picks with a smile…

… Unless that fan loves a player, and the Dolphins lose out on him by trading back.

I have already fallen in love with several players, but I’m forcing myself to keep some distance because this talent acquisition process uses baseball’s small ball approach.

This team-building concept won’t thrive without plenty of picks. So don’t set your heart on a player. Miami will be far better off missing by not drafting a player and getting extra picks than missing by drafting a player and losing out on the extra options. The highest percentage win is getting more picks… especially in a draft like this one that’s so deep in areas that Miami must improve in.

The hard truth is: An excellent player falling into their lap at #13 will bring the greatest return in a trade.

Miami and their fans must grasp with two hands the understanding that no one player is worth risking a ton on… NONE!

Patience, patience, patience will win the day… and keep fans even-keeled

There will be a quick rush to judgment after each pick… Phinsnews will be among them. But considering the broader picture, especially after some time has elapsed, is essential to a fair evaluation of Grier and Flores.

Fans should view trades backs as big wins for Miami. Now the Phins must hit on their picks because having all the picks in the world doesn’t mean squat if you bring in dud after dud. But if Miami acquires a few extra picks each season AND drafts as they have over the last few years, this franchise will return to relevance pronto! Go Phins!!!