Phins Edge in the ‘New Cap Era’
Phins News wrote about the coming cap crunch almost a year ago
The massive drop in the salary cap has NFL teams at a profound crossroad on how the business has been done and how will be done going forward! Similar to 2008, when the adjustment to the passing rules fundamentally changed the game, the lowering of the cap will dramatically change the NFL going forward. Unlike many teams, the Miami Dolphins are set up to thrive in this ‘new NFL’ because they have been fiscally responsible, are stacked with draft picks, and have a young team.
The only question now is will Chris Grier lead the front office to capitalizes on their advantages?
Doing the limbo with a deflating cap
The hit on the cap will dramatically change how NFL teams are built, designed, and maintained. There’s no way to predict all the implications of a lowering cap because we don’t know how low the cap will go or for how long the descent will last. It could pop back up next year…
… But, this scenario isn’t a great bet with the pay per head services because NFL viewership and the U.S. economy are nosediving. The NFL’s financial drivers are bound to both these factors and both need to take a drastic turn upwards before the cap rises again. While the timetable before viewership levels grow again is anyone’s guess, the U.S. economy will take more than a year to recover. Given the huge drop in the salary cap from $198 million to $182 million, prospects of a rising cap don’t look good in the near future. What’s worse, the cap could just as easily diminish as stagnating over the next few years. What then?
Phins News wrote about this steamroller of an issue coming at the NFL like a locomotive way back in June of last year. While we’ve been way ahead of the curve on this one, the future of the NFL economy is a great unknown.
Who knows where all this could lead?
What we do know going forward
The fact is that the cap has dropped about 10% in a single season. Considering it was supposed to increase that much before Covid hit, the swing in finances is nearly 20%! This sledgehammer of fiscal reality will make any sane General Manager:
- Be very, very reluctant to big contracts especially for players with an injury history. Maybe this was a major factor in the Van Noy release?
- Start cutting away blotted contracts even if the hit there is a hit on the team’s talent level.
- Place a far bigger premium on draft picks and acquiring more of them than is already placed on them.
- Squeeze more thought into UDFAs and less money on 2nd and 3rd contract vets.
- Cripple teams that have maxed contracts on any player who isn’t a Top 5 quarterback.
- Create more movement in players entering the final year or two of their deals.
- Strong demand for real fiscal responsibility from GMs and begin the lowering of the NFL player’s salary across the board.
- Compensatory picks will rise in value and force even more vets on the move.
Phins are in the perfect place to win
While being set up for success doesn’t assure success, the Phins are in a prime position to succeed… and even more so because of this tightening cap era.
Stocked with draft picks, a controlled cap, and a young roster is the obvious reasons why. But, equally as important is the front office’s ability to find quality players from the scrap heaps of football talent and the uncanny ability of Brian Flores to coach up new players and get them to contribute quickly. From scouts to the staff, this Phins regime has shown the right stuff to succeed in this new team-building era.
While the ability to trade back becomes even more of a lure to the Phins, teams dealing heaps of draft picks for a single pick may be less likely. This will be an interesting storyline. The value of draft picks will surely skyrocket and we might even see some sort of expansion of the NFL Draft with even more rounds added. And given what we’ve seen of the waves of vets being cut, near-elite players might find themselves unemployed heading into the season because cheaper options are replacing them.
I wonder if Xavien Howard has second thoughts on demanding more money?
One more story line for the Phins… as if they didn’t have a ton already!
There is so much change coming for the NFL going forward. Who knows what is around the corner. One thing is for sure, teams will be a whole lot more careful about how they spend. Let’s hope Miami continues to be wise. Go Phins!!!
Top Bookie Articles:
- All the Important Betting Terms Explained
- Is Pay per Head Legal? (the Answer Is Yes)
- How to Become a Bookie in 5 Easy Steps
This is a very timely article because the draft is only about a month away. Rosters will trim between now and June 1st. Those bloated contracts will have to be renegotiated to some extent. In addition, the union is going to want to renegotiate the formula for the cap. They will fight for $190 million cap. This means that the owners will be forced to take a smaller piece of the pie. The union is running the league now, not the owners.
Of course, empty bleachers due to COVID-19 is a big part of the 10% drop in revenue. I have read reports of regular season ratings dropping by 7% and the Super Bowl rating dropping by 9%. TV viewing should have increased because all of those people going to games should have been sitting in front of the boob tube rooting the home team to victory! What happened? My guess is that TV ratings were not boosted because the number of previous fans refusing to watch the unpatriotic, kneeling, disrespectful self absorbed players offset the people forced to watch the game on TV rather than attend a game.
The players and the owners play this loss of fans down but it is real. If the stadiums are open for football this season, the game attending fans will return to the stadium. However, they won’t be watching the games on TV. That will mean a further deterioration in ratings. Owners and players need to admit that it is not good business to anger about half of your fans. hey need to avoid anything unpatriotic, political, racial or religious. They may have to drop showing the national anthem. They need avoid the “Awoke rhetoric.” Leave socialjustice and racial equity to CNN and Fox news. People watch sports to be entertained by something that takes their mind off of life’s stressors. As wonderful as about half of the viewers think these topics are, the other half hates them. The 10% of viewers watching something else probably comes from those who hate this rhetoric. One mans’ hate speech is another man’s mantra! Avoid this stuff like the plague.
Players are going to learn that their salaries are linked to happy viewers. They must learn the true meaning of diversity! My old pappy taught me when I was little to avoid politics, religion and seducing the customers daughters. Maybe these overpaid players and the bourgeois owners shouold listen to my ols pappy!
“My old pappy taught me when I was little to avoid politics, religion and seducing the customers daughters.” I’ll take the wisdom from ole’ pappy and say this…
… whatever the reason, fans are watching less and have less in their pockets. Football is a past time and when you are dealing with weight or heavy real-life issues, many can’t get excited about things that have zero real life impact. The NFL will feel the crunch that so many around the world are feeling. They will have to adjust and the model of the last 20 plus years is broken in the current climate.
“Of course, empty bleachers due to COVID-19 is a big part of the 10% drop in revenue. I have read reports of regular season ratings dropping by 7% and the Super Bowl rating dropping by 9%. TV viewing should have increased because all of those people going to games should have been sitting in front of the boob tube rooting the home team to victory!”
This final point should be the most terrifying part of the equation… people aren’t even watching as much with more time on their hands. The not spending money part is expected… this second part likely wasn’t and it might be the canary in the colamine for the NFL’s dominance as a pro sport… maybe sports in general, really.
The union can fight all it wants and even though the owners WILL have to take a haircut, the golden era of the NFL is over for a while and the whole league will have to get in line as the cap drops and drops at least for the next two years. The smarter teams will feast as they find low cost talent. The teams that need to buy a roster, they will go nowhere as they’ll be strapped with huge contracts when some of these overpriced players get injured. It will be a very interesting time… the good news as far as football goes, the Phins have shown all the qualities of being smart and frugal… will it continue? Was it just a blip or the actual makeup of this regime?
I think this whole thing is another reason to trade back and also find a plan B for Tua. Next year is a terrible year for QBs in the draft. If by injury or not reaching elite level, Tua disappoints, the Phins could waste this great position and not be able to reset till 2023 and then another year or two to get the young QB ready. This could put the Phins looking at 2024 or 2025 to really compete if Tua isn’t the guy. That wouldn’t be good.