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Phins Edge in the ‘New Cap Era’

M.J.

Phins News wrote about the coming cap crunch almost a year ago

The massive drop in the salary cap has NFL teams at a profound crossroad on how the business has been done and how will be done going forward! Similar to 2008, when the adjustment to the passing rules fundamentally changed the game, the lowering of the cap will dramatically change the NFL going forward. Unlike many teams, the Miami Dolphins are set up to thrive in this ‘new NFL’ because they have been fiscally responsible, are stacked with draft picks, and have a young team.

The only question now is will Chris Grier lead the front office to capitalizes on their advantages?

Doing the limbo with a deflating cap

The hit on the cap will dramatically change how NFL teams are built, designed, and maintained. There’s no way to predict all the implications of a lowering cap because we don’t know how low the cap will go or for how long the descent will last. It could pop back up next year…

… But, this scenario isn’t a great bet with the pay per head services because NFL viewership and the U.S. economy are nosediving. The NFL’s financial drivers are bound to both these factors and both need to take a drastic turn upwards before the cap rises again. While the timetable before viewership levels grow again is anyone’s guess, the U.S. economy will take more than a year to recover. Given the huge drop in the salary cap from $198 million to $182 million, prospects of a rising cap don’t look good in the near future. What’s worse, the cap could just as easily diminish as stagnating over the next few years. What then?

Phins News wrote about this steamroller of an issue coming at the NFL like a locomotive way back in June of last year. While we’ve been way ahead of the curve on this one, the future of the NFL economy is a great unknown.

Who knows where all this could lead?

What we do know going forward

The fact is that the cap has dropped about 10% in a single season. Considering it was supposed to increase that much before Covid hit, the swing in finances is nearly 20%! This sledgehammer of fiscal reality will make any sane General Manager:

  1. Be very, very reluctant to big contracts especially for players with an injury history. Maybe this was a major factor in the Van Noy release?
  2. Start cutting away blotted contracts even if the hit there is a hit on the team’s talent level.
  3. Place a far bigger premium on draft picks and acquiring more of them than is already placed on them.
  4. Squeeze more thought into UDFAs and less money on 2nd and 3rd contract vets.
  5. Cripple teams that have maxed contracts on any player who isn’t a Top 5 quarterback.
  6. Create more movement in players entering the final year or two of their deals.
  7. Strong demand for real fiscal responsibility from GMs and begin the lowering of the NFL player’s salary across the board.
  8. Compensatory picks will rise in value and force even more vets on the move.

Phins are in the perfect place to win

While being set up for success doesn’t assure success, the Phins are in a prime position to succeed… and even more so because of this tightening cap era.

Stocked with draft picks, a controlled cap, and a young roster is the obvious reasons why. But, equally as important is the front office’s ability to find quality players from the scrap heaps of football talent and the uncanny ability of Brian Flores to coach up new players and get them to contribute quickly. From scouts to the staff, this Phins regime has shown the right stuff to succeed in this new team-building era.

While the ability to trade back becomes even more of a lure to the Phins, teams dealing heaps of draft picks for a single pick may be less likely. This will be an interesting storyline. The value of draft picks will surely skyrocket and we might even see some sort of expansion of the NFL Draft with even more rounds added. And given what we’ve seen of the waves of vets being cut, near-elite players might find themselves unemployed heading into the season because cheaper options are replacing them.

I wonder if Xavien Howard has second thoughts on demanding more money?

One more story line for the Phins… as if they didn’t have a ton already!

There is so much change coming for the NFL going forward. Who knows what is around the corner. One thing is for sure, teams will be a whole lot more careful about how they spend. Let’s hope Miami continues to be wise. Go Phins!!!


 

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