Phins Must Land a Star in 2020 Draft
The Phins last ‘true star’ drafted in the 1st Round came way back in 1990
With fourteen picks and five in the first two rounds, Chris Grier is holding nearly all the cards in the 2020 draft. Still, Miami must play those cards right to turn this potential in substance. While Miami can’t hit on every pick, they must hit more than they miss. But, most importantly, the Phins must net at least a single star football player from among them.
The Miami Dolphins have struggled to find stars for decades. And when they have found good players either injury ruined their career or they found their best success somewhere else. So, while the Phins must not only find elite players but also cultivate them properly and cross their fingers against the injury bug.
Still, the first step is finding a player with the talent and mental makeup to be a star in this league. Yes, the quality of a team’s depth brings consistency, but stars win championships. And even though stars are found anywhere in the draft–even outside of the draft, the 1st Round is a team’s best chance to find a game-changing player.
The Phins’ poor history of 1st Round picks
- 2019: Christian Wilkins: decent 1st season: TBD
- 2018: Minkah Fitzpatrick: 2019 All-Pro with Steelers: Traded
- 2016: Laremy Tunsil: 2019 Pro Bowl with Texans: Traded
- 2015: DeVante Parker: a very good season in Year 5: Long development
- 2012: Ryan Tannehill: 2019 Pro Bowl with Titans: Traded
- 2011: Mike Pouncey: 3 Pro Bowls & 1 with the Chargers: Injury ruined his 7-year career with Miami, and the 2014 Pro Bowl was more about his name than production
- 2008: Jake Long: 4 Pro Bowls and 1 All-Pro, but only a 5-year career in Miami: Injury destroyed his career
- 1994: Tim Bowens: 2 Pro Bowls and 11-year career with Phins: Full career and a good player
- 1992: Troy Vincent: 4 Pro Bowls and 1 All-Pro with Eagles: Lost in Free Agency
- 1990: Richmond Webb: 5 Pro Bowls and 2 All-Pro over 11 years with Phins: Full career and a star
Richmond Webb is the last star Miami drafted in the 1st Round, developed properly, and retained.
That’s 30 years ago!
Yes, the greatest Dolphins found in the last 20 years was Cameron Wake and he was found in Canada. Still, 1st Round picks are expected to be at least solid starters and are a team’s best chance to find a star.
This article is a bit dated, but the data is a good approximation.
- Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league
- Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round
- Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7
- Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks
- Some more data from this article was that 48.5% of 1st Round picks from 2012-2014 were All-Pro
- 67.5% of 1st Round picks stared 80 games or more
NFL teams have grown in their ability to evaluate 1st Round picks
In this older article we see a similar theme:
I decided to only look at the ’95, ’96, ’97, and ’98 NFL first rounds. After looking at these four drafts, I found that 54 out of the 122 (44 percent) first-round draft picks were out of the league by the beginning of the 2005 season.
I also found out that 60 out of the 122 draft picks (49 percent) were starters in the NFL by the 2005 season and 47 of them (39 percent) were Pro Bowlers at least once in their career. What surprised me the most was that only eight players out of 122 (seven percent) were backup players on NFL teams by 2005, with only one coming from the ’98 first round.
Now, for context, draft analysis and scouting has advanced dramatically from the 2nd article to the 1st article. We saw an improvement of 49% staying power in the 90s to 67.5% this decade. So, Miami has wasted most of its best ammo for decades despite these improvements.
Phins drafting has improved… so there is plenty of hope
The good news is that over the last few years the Phins have done much better in the 1st Round. Unfortunately, they have traded away their most productive picks. have done better. This is why these three 1st Round picks must be played to maximum effect. Not only are they valuable picks, but they also represent very productive players that Miami had and let go.
You don’t need the best bookie software to know every pick is valuable, but none are more important than these top three picks. Miami’s best chance of success to find at least one All-Pro player is with these top picks. And if the Phins ever want to reach the brass ring it will take both depth and All-Pro players to do it. Go Phins!!!
Admin
Issaic Simmons equal’s considering Quarterback Bryce Perkins possible 6th rounder to un-drafted. Simmons speak very highly of Bryce Perkins as being one of the toughest Quarterbacks to defend.
Virginia vs. Clemson: 2019 ACC Championship Game Preview
https://youtu.be/shW6S9SJpnY
https://youtu.be/9m8nMzAq80I?list=TLPQMTQwNDIwMjBKDAEg6hP_tQ
Admin
Jeff Okudah to be the 1st DB off the board said this
Ohio State’s Jeff Okudah said in interview Quintez Cephus was best WR I faced
Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah fought Wisconsin’s Quintez Cephus one-on-one when the Buckeyes played the Badgers this past season. Keep in mind that Okudah played against Michigan and Penn State. Keep in mind that he played against Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl, and went head-to-head against Tee Higgins, who is a sensational wide receiver known for making ridiculous acrobatic catches.
Okudah has played in big-boy games against elite talent… and this is what he had to say about Quintez Cephus at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis:
Possible Projected 6th rounder: I thought the toughest over the middle receiver.
Quintez Cephus
https://youtu.be/-vzw3CTOCN8?list=TLPQMTQwNDIwMjBKDAEg6hP_tQ&t=9
He could or he could be the best player sitting there for us. Howard isn’t a sure thing. Personal issues and injury puts a huge question mark and he’ll def! miss some games for his issue. So, I wouldn’t hate drafting him. NFL teams spent 71% of their snaps in nickel in 2019!!!
MJ, excellent article! This really spelled it out for me as whole as to why in large part, this team has been non-relevant for 20+ years. I am hearing so many scenarios regarding pick #5. Many now feel Miami will move into #3 and take Tua. All along I have thought that most likely, the team would take Tua despite his injuries. Some have stated moving up to #1 in a trade with the Bengals to take Burrows. I am dead set against that and your article makes it even more clear that we NEED those picks to secure the OL, DL, and maybe a skill player at RB or even WR. It would cost way too much to move up to #1, and not nearly that much draft capital to move down to #3. However, there is still a part of me that would like them to stand pat at #5, but apparently many feel Tua won’t be available. He has been their #1 guy all along! What are your thought? Steve.
Thanks, Stephen! Been hard to get things out. Still not the same since I became sick… weeks now! Have one from Jimmy… and a flood of thoughts came to me last day or two… so maybe I’m finally turning the corner. Anywho…
They better not move up to get Tua… they shouldn’t draft him at #5 either. I’m kinda’ getting the feeling they might pick Herbert… hope not. Also getting the feeling that Giants go with Simmons… hope not. Bengals won’t trade the pick. I just don’t see it. But, I’m not a wise one when it comes to the draft… so, take it with a ton of salt. No Tua, No trade up is my motto though!… and add in no Herbert!
How many of these hits will the Dolphins allow Tua to take! And why take the gamble?
NFL Biggest Quarterback Hits & Worst Injuries (Part 1) [1080p HD]
https://youtu.be/wmOCqZo7W8w
College Football Biggest Hits 2018-2019
https://youtu.be/coGtK14zUPA
I’m praying they don’t… if he ends up good… okay. I’ll still feel good because it was the best odds for success to pass on him.
Great possible seconders:
2nd 7 (3) Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma The big Canadian has anchored the middle of OU’s defensive line
Summary – Neville Gallimore is a disruptive 1T in a penetration style defensive system. Gallimore isn’t necessarily a huge finisher and hasn’t rolled up huge production in the backfield but make no mistake, his initial quickness, power, hand counters and motor will provide plenty of disruption up front for even front teams looking to collapse the pocket and get opposing quarterbacks on their heels. Gallimore has viable three down ability thanks to his short area agility. An NFL starter.
https://www.si.com/college/2019/12/11/college-football-all-america-team
2nd (24) Tyler Biadasz, C, Wisconsin–Current Winner Tyler Biadasz, Wisconsin center and team captain, was awarded the Rimington Trophy, given to the nation’s most outstanding center. December 2019
LSU C Lloyd Cushenberry III
2019 Second-Team All-American (AFCA, FWAA)
First offensive lineman to be awarded the No. 18 jersey (wears a patch on his uniform during the game), which is given to the player that best represents what it means to be an LSU football player – on and off the field
2019 LSU Graduate (B.A. Sport Administration)
2019 Joe Moore Award Winner (top offensive line in the nation)
2019 LSU Football MVP
2019 LSU Permanent Team Captain
39 games, 28 starts
Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan–On the watch list for Rimington Trophy
Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn Play some Tight End also.
These players are foundation builders for any team. There’s a lot of talked about running backs are a dime a dozen. That type thinking is why the 37 year old quarterback Fitzpatrick was the leading rusher for the Dolphins last season.
There’s a lot of talked about Justin Herbert not a good QB. The Dolphins have not had a Quarterback as talented as Justin Herbert ever over the last two decades. Jalen Hurst has broken every record a quarterback can break in college but not worthy of a 1st or 2nd round consideration.
I don’t like his meek attitude. But, I can see him growing up and being a quality QB… still, I’m just not sold either way… I’m thinking more and more he will get picked by Miami.
Very nice article Admin!
The key is draft those players who are champions and can stay healthy i.e below.
5th Picked: Justin Herbert 30th recipient of The William V. Campbell Trophy 2020 Rose Bowl (Offensive MVP)2020 Senior Bowl (MVP)
Isaiah Simmons Butkus Award winner as the nation’s top linebacker in 2019
Derrick Brown three-year starter … team captain name finalist for 6 college awards
PICKED: 18TH OT: Andrew Thomas, Georgia* Thomas was named winner of the Jacobs Blocking Trophy https://youtu.be/2MszTxrJxe8 Thomas was a steadying force for UGA’s offensive line protecting QB Jake Fromm, starting all 13 games and solidifying his status as a likely first-round NFL draft pick. He was also named SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week twice.
PICKED: 26TH
Johnathan Taylor (consecutive two year Top running back in the country award winner of the 2018 and 2019 Doak Walker Award
ESPN News Services
Now with 5,856 career yards, the most by any player in FBS history through his junior season.
I’m seeing from the Top 4 picks that Burrow, Young, Simmons and Okudah will be off the board. Simmons is the one I want most. The rest of these players ‘seem’ a step-down… but, nothing is in the books until they play. Still, I’m not happy with this current projection… that could change though down the road. I’m starting to think Herbert might be the pick.
Burrow’s and Young for sure I’m not certain that Okudah will be off the board? It may appear that I’m trying to sell Justin Herbert? No I’m not! But it should be clear that Herbert is getting a bad rapped from many who has not seen him play the last 3 or 4 years.
I continue to state that the Dolphins Fans will really love Herbert. Herbert has learned how to win games either his arm or legs.
Simmons I really Loved for sure he is prime time. Derrick Brown cannot be overlooked either.
Agree on Brown… putting together an article on the run D and Brown and our LBs… so been thinking about it.
Lions desperate for a corner… if they pass then he’ll drop.
No, don’t think you are selling, but I do think Phins might be buying. It’s his uber quiet demeanour that bothers me… other than that I like him a lot… Herbert had a 102 passer rating under pressure… that’s big to me.