The Phins last ‘true star’ drafted in the 1st Round came way back in 1990
With fourteen picks and five in the first two rounds, Chris Grier is holding nearly all the cards in the 2020 draft. Still, Miami must play those cards right to turn this potential in substance. While Miami can’t hit on every pick, they must hit more than they miss. But, most importantly, the Phins must net at least a single star football player from among them.
The Miami Dolphins have struggled to find stars for decades. And when they have found good players either injury ruined their career or they found their best success somewhere else. So, while the Phins must not only find elite players but also cultivate them properly and cross their fingers against the injury bug.
Still, the first step is finding a player with the talent and mental makeup to be a star in this league. Yes, the quality of a team’s depth brings consistency, but stars win championships. And even though stars are found anywhere in the draft–even outside of the draft, the 1st Round is a team’s best chance to find a game-changing player.
The Phins’ poor history of 1st Round picks
- 2019: Christian Wilkins: decent 1st season: TBD
- 2018: Minkah Fitzpatrick: 2019 All-Pro with Steelers: Traded
- 2016: Laremy Tunsil: 2019 Pro Bowl with Texans: Traded
- 2015: DeVante Parker: a very good season in Year 5: Long development
- 2012: Ryan Tannehill: 2019 Pro Bowl with Titans: Traded
- 2011: Mike Pouncey: 3 Pro Bowls & 1 with the Chargers: Injury ruined his 7-year career with Miami, and the 2014 Pro Bowl was more about his name than production
- 2008: Jake Long: 4 Pro Bowls and 1 All-Pro, but only a 5-year career in Miami: Injury destroyed his career
- 1994: Tim Bowens: 2 Pro Bowls and 11-year career with Phins: Full career and a good player
- 1992: Troy Vincent: 4 Pro Bowls and 1 All-Pro with Eagles: Lost in Free Agency
- 1990: Richmond Webb: 5 Pro Bowls and 2 All-Pro over 11 years with Phins: Full career and a star
Richmond Webb is the last star Miami drafted in the 1st Round, developed properly, and retained.
That’s 30 years ago!
Yes, the greatest Dolphins found in the last 20 years was Cameron Wake and he was found in Canada. Still, 1st Round picks are expected to be at least solid starters and are a team’s best chance to find a star.
This article is a bit dated, but the data is a good approximation.
- Nearly 30% of all starters were 1st round draft picks when drafted into the league
- Roughly 30% were taken in either the 2nd or 3rd round
- Roughly 26% were taken in either rounds 4 through 7
- Undrafted players (14%) were the 3rd most likely group to comprise 2014’s starters…only behind 1st round (30%) and 2nd round (18%) picks
- Some more data from this article was that 48.5% of 1st Round picks from 2012-2014 were All-Pro
- 67.5% of 1st Round picks stared 80 games or more
NFL teams have grown in their ability to evaluate 1st Round picks
In this older article we see a similar theme:
I decided to only look at the ’95, ’96, ’97, and ’98 NFL first rounds. After looking at these four drafts, I found that 54 out of the 122 (44 percent) first-round draft picks were out of the league by the beginning of the 2005 season.
I also found out that 60 out of the 122 draft picks (49 percent) were starters in the NFL by the 2005 season and 47 of them (39 percent) were Pro Bowlers at least once in their career. What surprised me the most was that only eight players out of 122 (seven percent) were backup players on NFL teams by 2005, with only one coming from the ’98 first round.
Now, for context, draft analysis and scouting has advanced dramatically from the 2nd article to the 1st article. We saw an improvement of 49% staying power in the 90s to 67.5% this decade. So, Miami has wasted most of its best ammo for decades despite these improvements.
Phins drafting has improved… so there is plenty of hope
The good news is that over the last few years the Phins have done much better in the 1st Round. Unfortunately, they have traded away their most productive picks. have done better. This is why these three 1st Round picks must be played to maximum effect. Not only are they valuable picks, but they also represent very productive players that Miami had and let go.
You don’t need the best bookie software to know every pick is valuable, but none are more important than these top three picks. Miami’s best chance of success to find at least one All-Pro player is with these top picks. And if the Phins ever want to reach the brass ring it will take both depth and All-Pro players to do it. Go Phins!!!