Coming off the Bye Week Miami is in MUST win territory Week 7!
The Miami Dolphins are 2-3 and can’t afford to lose another against a very beatable Indianapolis Colts especially coming off their Bye Week against a team that has the worst run defense in the NFL. Miami invested solid draft picks in both Devon Achane, Jaylen Wright and a sizable contract in tough and fast veteran Raheem Mostert. They ran roughshod in their Week 5 victory over the Patriots for 193 yards and they must do it again this week to move to 3-3 on the season.
Clearly, you don’t need the best football software to see that Miami has plenty of problems, but a win buys them more time to figure them out. Whether fans believe or don’t believe, this 2024 Phins team needs to make the best sowing they can because despite the long, long leeway Chris Grier seems to have. This regime can’t bank on returning if they bottom out hard enough.
So, Week 7 vs Indy will tell us how much do these players and the staff want to keep this thing together.
Indy isn’t a slouch, but are VERY vulnerable to the run
The Colts are the 32nd run defense giving up 155 yards per game and what’s worse for them they have missed 51 tackles, which ranks them tied for 2nd worst. The Dolphins offensive line isn’t generating a ton of yards before contact at 2.4 YBC, compared to say Indy at 3.4 YBC, but the Phins running backs are very fast and enhance whatever they get. Wright has forced 11 missed tackles, Mostert 9, and Achane 6. Wright has had an incredible elusive rate with 128 rating, which is a PFF signature stat measuring success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking. While they haven’t broken many tackles ranking so far with 1 broken tackle in every 37 attempts, this Sunday could be the day that changes.
All of these elements of a poor Indy defense and talents Dolphins running back group should and must deliver this week.
McDaniel must have Miami disciplined AND call a smart game
Phins head coach Mike McDaniel has had two weeks to prepare himself, his staff, and team for this game. There is no excuses for sloppy play or not having this team dialed in. This is why I think a loss this week could doom more than the season, but this regime.
Grier has been building this squad since 2019 and McDaniel he isn’t a green HC/OC going into is third season. A win this week doesn’t say definitively they are the right people for the job, but a defeat clearly says they definitively aren’t!
I see a Dolphins victory, but it won’t be easy. Let’s hope we somehow find ourselves in a great spot after a terrible start. I won’t bet on it, but I sure as heck will hope! If not, then I’ll pray Stephen Ross has the wisdom and guts to clean house and start over! Go Phins!!!