Phins vs Bills! What’s At Stake?

Miami is 2-5, so ‘hopium’ says they technically they aren’t out of it…

The Miami Dolphins have been in a ‘must win’ for the last two weeks, so this week vs the Buffalo Bills it’s a must, must, must!? Miami currently has a 5% chance to make the post season and those odds will drop to near nil if they lose this week. Given Zach Sieler in going to miss this game, Hill is continuing to battle a foot injury, Kader a neck issue, and Holland both a hand and knee problem, this road game to Buffalo doesn’t look good. Anything is possible, but the odds are terrible for the win with Buffalo getting +6.5 with the pay per head sites.

So, if the Phins win the evaluation is clear: AWESOME! This regime would be given a huge reprieve on the season and more.

What if the Phins lose and what’s the impact on the 2024 Season and beyond?

IS the regime fighting for its life or is a return baked in?

Chris Grier and Mike McDaniel are fighting for their Dolphins life in many Phins fans eyes. Some fans want them back no matter what. What does Steven Ross want? Who knows. But, I’d have to believe that in the minority of fans that want this regime to continue and for Ross’ evaluation, there must be a few things that we need to see.

Clearly, discipline is a key to the game and Mike McDaniel’s evaluation. While we were good this week at home against the Cardinals, we’ve been quite poor most of the season and over McDaniel’s tenure. Can this team show themselves improving for their coach in their focus? Will they give themselves a chance to win this week by not beating themselves? A team that’s tuning out a staff will be careless, and this could be an indication that the locker room is not believing. A sloppy game would certainly be a sign of the staff not getting their job done.

The offense has been injected with Terron, Jonnu Smith, OBJ, Tyreek Hill, Jaylean Waddle, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Wright. McDaniel and Tua have all the tools to make this offense a driving force. Also, this offense is healthy, so no excuses there. They will need to put points on to match a good Bills offense and to help take the load off a wounded defense.

Can they though? On the road against good teams has been a bad recipe for us for a long time.

What kind of output will make this offense, its leaders, and designers look good?

Bills are the litmus test for the Phins team design

The Bills are giving up 208 YPG through the air, 120 YPG on the ground, and 18.3 PPG. Miami must reach and surpass these numbers. It will take close to 400 yards on the day and around 29 pts just to keep serve with Buffalo. Likely it will take more given how wounded our defense is. I’d say getting these numbers would be enough to hold off finger pointing on McDaniel, Tua and the offense for this week, even in a loss. If they surpass this production and win, now that would be something. Less than this production, and every step down, should be an incrementally increased indictment to this regime.

It’s hard to gauge Weaver. He’s still new to being a defensive coordinator and learning his players. There are also so many key injuries to this squad. The pass defense flopped in the 2nd Half last week with Jalen Ramsey failing on a couple of key plays. So, anything other than the Bills running through this defense like poop through a goose should give Weaver a pass.

In the end, Grier built this team around a passing offense with two elite receivers and blazing running backs–and a highly questionable offensive line– to put a ton of points on for a pass defending and pass rushing defense to pin their ears back. Against poor teams this has been mostly the case. But, when facing good teams and in bad elements, this has almost never been how it has played out.

This clearly points to some serious structural issues with this team build. This puts the designers squarely in the crosshairs more so than any player. So, while we have the whole season to see how this plays out, there are plenty of data points so far this year and the two prior ones to get a good picture. The Bills should be the final nail in the coffin if the Phins lay a serious egg this week.

All I want is what’s best for this franchise. I don’t have another dog in the hunt other than that. I just want this multi-decade circus to pack up and go home. Go Phins!