Dolphins MUST control the run game on both sides
The Miami Dolphins have a legitimate opportunity to make it two wins in a row, but beating New England will require winning a battle that has defined this team’s identity: the line of scrimmage. Turnovers, quarterback play, and execution will all matter, but I keep coming back to one area in particular—first-down football on both sides of the ball…especially when it comes to the run game.
The problem is Kayden Proctor is likely not playing this week.
Can the Dolphins find a run game with their massive rookie on the sidelines?
Phins Run “D” vs Pats Rushing “O”
New England wants to run directly at the defense. The Patriots use the A- and B-gaps on roughly 55% of their first-down rushing attempts, relying heavily on man blocking and inside zone. That creates a difficult matchup for Miami, which has struggled defending those interior lanes. The Dolphins are allowing 4.75 yards per carry in the A-gap and 5.55 in the B-gap.
There is some encouraging news. Jordan Phillips has been doing an excellent job despite drawing frequent double teams, and Miami has defended outside zone effectively. Unfortunately, outside zone isn’t a major part of New England’s rushing attack and the Phins rushing defense is one of the best in the league at stopping it. The Dolphins will need discipline from their interior defensive line, particularly Phillips and the players around him, while the linebackers must be ready to clean up behind them. Giving Drake Maye favorable second-down situations is something Miami simply cannot afford.
Miami Rushing Attack vs Pats Run Defense
On the other side, the Dolphins face a Patriots defense that has shown vulnerabilities in the A, B, and D-gaps (between the tackles and far wide). There are opportunities for Bobby Slowik, but the absence of Kadyn Proctor changes the equation considerably. Kingston has an opportunity to step in, but replacing Proctor’s impact—particularly as a physical presence and pull blocker—is a major question.
Miami may need to get creative. Trap and draw concepts are intriguing because the Patriots have struggled defending them. Malik Willis’s scrambling ability is another important weapon, and his legs could be essential to keeping the offense on schedule. I also expect Miami to explore pin-and-pull concepts after seeing the success of that approach last week. Outside zone is worth testing, even if it isn’t normally my preferred approach, because New England has struggled against it.
You can bet with the best pay per head that the passing game presents another important matchup. Drake Maye has been effective against zone and split-field coverage but less comfortable against man coverage. Miami needs timely man coverage and pressure. Jason Marshall is a concern: the numbers in this breakdown show a 151 passer rating allowed when targeted. Josh McDaniels will have every reason to test that matchup.
Close But Likely NO Cigar
Ultimately, I see a close game, with the Patriots having a slight edge because of the Proctor absence and the challenges Miami faces inside. But the Dolphins have a path to winning.
Stay disciplined, win first down, use Willis’s legs, and don’t abandon the short passing game in favor of low-percentage deep shots. If Miami can do those things, it has a real chance to make it two straight.
Go Phins!!!